Monday 10 June 2013

Barron´s interview to Marc Faber Part III

On China´s GDP growth rates and other economic data.

" There has been a huge credit bubble in China, and it isn't going to end well. Its economy officially grew 7.7% in the first quarter. In reality, it is growing 4% a year, at best. Figures on Chinese exports to Taiwan, South Korea, Hong Kong, and Singapore don't agree with the import figures of those countries. In each case, reported exports are much larger than reported imports. Singapore publishes relatively honest economic statistics. Its gross domestic product has hardly grown in the past six months. Inflation is about 4% a year. Here in Thailand, growth has slowed despite massive fiscal stimulus. Trade and current-account surpluses have been shrinking in Malaysia, Indonesia, and other countries".

On his thoughts about the european markets.

''I wasn't optimistic for a long time, although I bought some Swiss insurance stocks after the crisis in 2009. Then, last May, I took another look, as sentiment was so negative. The S&P had doubled from its 2009 lows, yet many markets in Europe were at or below their 2009 lows. Something was out of sync. For the first time in my life, I bought European shares, and I plan to buy more''.

''Markets in Europe have made major lows. But investors don't fully comprehend what happened in Cyprus. In the event of future bailouts, bank depositors will lose a percentage of their money. Money in the bank isn't 100% safe anymore. That's why I own stocks, and corporate bonds, and real estate''.
 What does he thinks about gold correction and its allocation in a portfolio of investments?

 ''Gold is down 30% from its 2011 peak of $1,921, but has far outperformed financial assets since 1999. A correction was overdue. I have about a 25% allocation to gold and buy some every month. I want to have some assets that aren't in the banking system. When the asset bubble bursts, financial assets will be particularly vulnerable.
Gold is easier to carry than a Lamborghini.
Most of my gold is in a safe-deposit box in Switzerland, but I am shifting it to Asia''. 

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