Sunday 11 May 2014

China Stocks Lead Emerging Shares Higher

"The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI) jumped 1.4 percent by 12:04 p.m. inTokyo, while the Shanghai Composite Index climbed 1.7 percent. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index added 0.3 percent. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures added 0.2 percent after the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed to a record May 9. Nickel jumped 3.9 percent, headed for its highest close since 2012, and brent added 0.3 percent. Wheat futures slumped 1.9 percent amid increasing inventories.
China’s government will relax foreign-investment limits in listed companies, increase quotas for capital flow, and develop commodities trading tools, according to a May 9 statement that didn’t include details. Chinese President Xi Jinping said Asia’s largest economy needs to adapt to a “new normal” on growth, according to a state news report. About 90 percent of voters in Donetsk backed a plan to break away from Ukraine, RIA Novosti reported. European Central Bank Vice President Vitor Constancio and other officials speak today in Vienna".
“The announcement is good for the market in the medium and long term and raises the government’s attention to the stock market to the state level,” said Wu Kan, a fund manager at Shanghai-based Dragon Life Insurance Co., which oversees about $3.3 billion. “This will boost the confidence of the market.”
Source: Blomberg

Xinhua: China's housing sector to enter "autumn season": expert

 China's property market is entering an "autumn season" marked by a reasonable drop in house prices, an expert said Sunday.
"The property industry is indeed experiencing a turning point at present, but there will not be a sharp decline like the one that appeared in the United States in 2007 and 2008," Li Daokui, professor with Tsinghua University and a former advisor to China's central bank, said at a forum.
The market will enter an "autumn," but not a "winter," Li said.
Chinese homeowners are not likely to sell off their property as many Americans did ahead of the financial crisis, he said.
Since the beginning of this year, the country's formerly red-hot property market showed increasing signs of cooling down, igniting worries about a plunge in home prices this year.
Figures from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed the total area of commercial property sold in the first quarter dropped 3.8 percent year on year, and combined sales revenue dropped 5.2 percent.
Home prices in major Chinese cities grew at a slower pace in March, with fewer cities reporting month-on-month price gains, according to the NBS.
Source: XINhua

China establishes new financial think tank

China has set up a state finance institute, expected to become the country's leading financial think tank, to address increasing complexity and the country's progress in opening-up and reform.
The institute, to be operated by the PBC School of Finance under Tsinghua University, was co-founded by the university and China's major financial regulators, including the People's Bank of China and three top watchdogs for the banking, stock and insurance sectors.
Liu Hongru, former deputy governor of the central bank and the first chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, said on Saturday that the country's financial reform has entered a new phase to build an internationalized and market-based sector.
He said he hopes the institute will strengthen research efforts and produce concrete results to tackle the complicated circumstances confronting the country's financial development.
Source: Xinhua

More lock-up Chinese shares eligible for trade

The total value of lock-up shares becoming eligible for trade on China's stock market this week will rise slightly from the previous week, according to the country's two stock exchanges.
From Monday to Friday, 25 listed companies on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges will see shares worth 19.4 billion yuan (3.15 billion U.S. dollars) released to the market after lock-up agreements expire.
The amount is slightly higher than the total value of 18.3 billion yuan that became tradable during the previous week.
Under China's market rules, major shareholders of non-tradable stocks are subject to a lock-up period of one or two years before they are permitted to sell their shares.
A rise in newly unlocked shares will put some downward pressure on the market as it means an increase in stock supply.
Source: Xinhua

Xinhua: Company's drilling activities are within Chinese waters: official

The drilling activities of China Oilfield Services Limited (COSL) are located only 17 nautical miles (some 31 kilometers) from China's Zhongjian Island, completely within the country's territorial waters, an official has said.
Yi Xianliang, Deputy Director-General of the Department of Boundary and Ocean Affairs of the Foreign Ministry of China, told reporters on Friday that the Chinese side was "deeply surprised and shocked" by Vietnam's intensive attempts since May 2 to disrupt the Chinese company's normal drilling activities in the waters off China's Xisha Islands.
The Xisha Islands are an inherent part of China's territory and there is not any dispute about it, said the official.
The operations undertaken by COSL are only 17 nautical miles from Zhongjian Island, while they are as far as 130-150 nautical miles (241-278 kilometers) from Vietnam's coastline, he said.
Yi said Chinese enterprises started operations in the area ten years ago and in the time period from May to June 2013, a Chinese company carried out three-dimensional seismic operations there as well.
The ongoing operations are a normal follow-up to those past operations, he added.
Yi said the Chinese company's operations are completely within the mandate of China's sovereignty, sovereign rights and jurisdiction, and that Vietnam's harassment of the company's normal activities has seriously violated China's sovereignty, sovereign rights and jurisdiction, and gravely affected the production and safety of China's drilling rig.
It has caused unnecessary trouble for the China-Vietnam relationship, he added.
Faced with the harassment, the Chinese side had to strengthen security on the spot to stop the Vietnamese side's behavior and ensure the operations as well as navigation security.
"We demand the Vietnamese side sincerely respect China's legitimate rights, return to a rational track, immediately stop all forms of harassment and withdraw all its vessels and personnel from the area," said the Chinese official.
Source: Xinhua

China should adapt to new norm of growth: Xi

- Chinese President Xi Jinping said Saturday that the country should adapt to new norm for its economic growth and be cool-minded amid slowdown in the world's second-largest economy.
Xi made the remark during his inspection tour to central China's Henan Province from Friday to Saturday.
"China is still in a significant period of strategic opportunity. We must boost our confidence, adapt to the new normal condition based on the characteristics of China's economic growth in the current phase and stay cool-minded," Xi said.
The country's economy has gradually slowed since the international financial crisis in 2008. Its economy expanded by 7.7 percent in both 2012 and 2013, the slowest pace since 1999.
However, China should also attach great significance to preventing diversified risks for its economy and take timely countermeasures to reduce potential negative effects, Xi said.
"The basic conditions for sustaining the country's growth have not changed, so we should stick to the fundamental principle of seeking progresses while maintaining stability in economic work," he said.
The government must continue to coordinate the relations of stabilizing growth, promoting reforms, adjusting structure, improving people's livelihood and preventing risks so as to ensure sound economic growth and social stability, according to Xi.
Xi's words are in line with recent message from some other senior officials concerning the direction of China's economic policies.
Premier Li Keqiang said at a forum in Hainan Province last month that China will not resort to strong short-term stimulus policies just because of temporary economic fluctuations, but rather pay more attention to sound development in the medium and long run.
China will seek growth impetus from deepening reforms, adjusting economic structure and improving people's livelihood, the premier said.
On Saturday, China's central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan reaffirmed the stance at a conference in Beijing, saying that macroeconomic policies should be stable and no massive stimulus should be taken at present.
Zhou urged for more accurate judgment about the present economic situation, arguing that short-term economic figures may not be sufficient to help come to conclusions.
China's economic growth slowed to a six-quarter low of 7.4 percent in the first quarter of the year, down from a growth of 7.7 percent in the final quarter of 2013.
In spite of the slowdown, the pace was within a reasonable range, as the government has set the annual growth target for this year at about 7.5 percent.
During the two-day inspection, Xi visited rural areas, companies and the inland port in Zhengzhou, one of the terminals for a railway connecting the city with Europe to facilitate cargo transportation.
He stressed the significance of agriculture after inspecting a pilot area for high-standard grain production in the city of Kaifeng, saying that grain safety and the work of agriculture, farmers and rural areas are important foundation for all other government work.
Xi lauded the independent innovation at the China Railway Engineering Equipment Group Co., Ltd. after visiting an assembly plant of the company.
"Equipment manufacturing is the backbone of a country's manufacturing industry, but weakness still exists in many aspects of China's equipment manufacturing," Xi said.
China needs to boost investment, enhance research and development efforts to accelerate the development of the sector and gain a say in terms of advanced technology in the world, he said.
Through innovation and technological development, the country should push for the transformation from "Made in China" to "Created in China," from "China speed" to "China quality" and from "Chinese products" to "Chinese brands," according to Xi.
Source: Xinhua

WSJ: Jim O'Neill on EM January "mass crisis", China,Next Eleven,Russia and indifference on US markets

   Interview in the WSJ:
 "It was more than amusing when there was this crazy view around some mass crisis in the emerging world in January which turned out to be, surprise surprise, nonsense.
   In fact in 8 of the Next Eleven Countries*, their stock markets have had double digits returns since the beginning of the year.
  He is very positive on Chinese consumer related stocks and global consumer stocks
  He considers the Russian stock market very interesting because it is so cheap , where he is personally staying away till Putin makes clear his intentions on Ukraine, although these events have made him very popular in Russia. He will be looking closely to the Russian market and see when the fundamentals prevail.
  He is positive on Indonesia and India.
  And in Africa he is positive on Nigeria
   He like China's consumer related stocks and likes peripheral Europe
   He's indifferent to the U.S. Stock market. He sticks with the five day rule for the S&P, whenever the stock market goes down for the first five days of a year, which the S&P did this year it will be a down year for the year as a whole. The U.S. market could go up or down".


.*The Next Eleven (known also by the numeronym N-11) are the eleven countries – BangladeshEgyptIndonesiaIranMexico,NigeriaPakistan, the PhilippinesTurkeySouth Korea, and Vietnam – identified by Goldman Sachs investment bank and economistJim O'Neill in a research paper as having a high potential of becoming, along with the BRICs, the world's largest economies in the 21st century. 

WSJ: The Market’s Rough Rotation.

       The WSJ reports,"former market leaders such as biotechnology and Internet-related stocks have fallen 25% and more from early-year highs. Many once-strong small stocks have taken hits, too. Money is shifting to safer, dividend-paying stocks such as utilities and telecom stocks.
Broad indexes, meanwhile, have been in a rut all year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a record 16583.34 Friday, but it is up just seven points, or 0.04%, since the end of December.
The big question: How bad can the selling get? In some past rotations, trouble for the highflyers brought down the broad market. In others, the broad market held up well. After studying the historical data, many analysts and money managers think this rotation still could damage the broad market, but not as badly as in some past cases".
“I think it is going to be one of the headwinds that prevent us from motoring higher from here,” said Leo Grohowski, chief investment officer at BNY Mellon Wealth Management, which oversees $185 billion in New York. He says stocks can rise a modest 4% this year and continue rising next year, but like many people, he worries that the process could be bumpy.
Ned Davis Research in Venice, Fla., has conducted several studies of past market rotations and found two varieties: the really nasty and the merely difficult.
"Since 1989, the bad ones were in times of economic trouble, meaning the early 2000s and 2008. Then, each sharp decline by market leaders led a drop of 27% to 48% in the S&P 500 Index. But from 1989 to 1999, when the economy was more stable, rotations away from market leaders led to more-modest broad-market declines: 5% to 12%, with one of 17%".
"Bank of America Merrill Lynch, meanwhile, found stocks, commodities, interest-rates and the dollar are acting much as in 2005 and 2006. Back then, stock indexes didn’t peak until October 2007. If the comparison proves accurate, trouble could lurk, but not immediately.
Of course, sifting through market history is an inexact science at best. The analysts who do these studies all warn that they offer reference points, not predictions".
"No one knows how much pressure investors will feel to sell in coming months. If some widely held stocks fall heavily and investors using borrowed money get demands for more collateral, they could be forced to sell other holdings, provoking a broader decline".
 
   No one has said there won't be a correction this time.
     Too much complacency, is a bad omen.

Ukraine: pro-Russia separatists set for victory in eastern region referendum

"There were no international observers, no up-to-date electoral lists, and the ballot papers were photocopies. With heavily armed men keeping watch, ambiguous wording on the ballot slip and a bungled Ukrainian attempt to stop voting in one town that ended with one dead, it was clear that this was no ordinary referendum.
But as pro-Russia separatists announced a landslide victory for the proposition that called for the creation of two new, quasi-independent entities in eastern Ukraine, it was equally clear that Sunday's voting marked a new watershed in the country's crisis.
One of the separatist leaders promptly served warning that all Ukrainian troops on his territory would become illegal.
"All military troops on our territory after the official announcement of referendum results will be considered illegal and declared occupiers," Denis Pushilin said. "It is necessary to form state bodies and military authorities as soon as possible."
The head of the de facto electoral commission said on Sunday night that nearly 90% of voters in the eastern Ukrainian region of Donetsk voted for self-rule. "89%, that's it," Roman Lyagin said"

Source: theguardian.

Projections of U.S. Natural gas Use in Transportation and Manufacturing




U.S. Shale Gas Production Growth Projection through 2040

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US Growth in Natural Gas and Oil Production from Shale and Other Tight Resources


Jack White "Lazaretto"


John Lennon "Instant Karma"


John Lennon "Just Like(Starting Over)"


                               Our life together is so precious together,
We have grown - we have grown,
Although our love is still special,
Let's take our chance and fly away somewhere alone,

It's been so long since we took the time,
No-one's to blame,
I know time flies so quikly,
But when I see you darling,
It's like we both are falling in love again,
It'll be just like starting over - starting over,

Everyday we used to make it love,
Why can't we be making love nice and easy,
It's time to spread our wing's and fly,
Don't let another day go by my love,
It'll be just like starting over - starting over,

Why don't we take off alone,
Take a trip far, far away,
We'll be together on our own again,
Like we used to in the early days,
Well, well, well darling,

It's been so long since we took the time,
No-one's to blame,
I know time flies so quikly,
But when I see you darling,
It's like we both are falling in love again,
It'll be just like starting over - starting over,

Everyday we used to make it love,
Why can't we be making love nice and easy,
It's time to spread our wing's and fly,
Don't let another day go by my love,
It'll be just like starting over - starting over,

Our life together is so precious together,
We have grown - we have grown,
Although our love is still special,
Let's take our chance and fly away somewhere alone.

John Lennon "Cold Turkey" Live


John Lennon's How do you sleep? Song about Paul



So Sgt. Pepper took you by surprise
You better see right through that mother's eyes
Those freaks was right when they said you was dead
The one mistake you made was in your head
Ah, how do you sleep?
Ah, how do you sleep at night?
You live with straights who tell you you was king
Jump when your momma tell you anything
The only thing you done was yesterday
And since you're gone you're just another day
Ah, how do you sleep?
Ah, how do you sleep at night?

Ah, how do you sleep?
Ah, how do you sleep at night?

A pretty face may last a year or two
But pretty soon they'll see what you can do
The sound you make is muzak to my ears
You must have learned something in all those years
Ah, how do you sleep?
Ah, how do you sleep at night?

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