Thursday 5 September 2013

Precious Metals Prices 11.26 p.m. Eastern time

Gold Price Futures      3 months   US$  1,370.19

Silver Price Futures    3 months    US$       23.18

BOJ chief Kuroda supports planned sales tax hike

Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda on Thursday signaled his support for a planned two-stage consumption tax rise starting next year, saying it will be "extremely difficult" for the central bank to deal with a potential fall in government bond prices if the government postpones the hike.

Kuroda expressed the view after the central bank upgraded its assessment of the Japanese economy for the first time in two months, stating it "is recovering moderately" on the back of a revival in corporate spending and solid consumer spending amid improving employment and income conditions.
It was the first time since autumn 2008 that the BOJ has used the term "recovering" in describing the state of the nation's economy.

Honda unveils world's most fuel-efficient HV

Officials at Honda Motor have unveiled what they're calling the world's most fuel-efficient hybrid vehicle.

The new Fit compact car can travel more than 36 kilometers on a single liter of gasoline. That's a 35-percent improvement from the previous version.
Officials say the Fit gets the best gas mileage of any hybrid in the world, beating out Toyota's Aqua model.
Honda engineers boosted the car's fuel efficiency with a system that can automatically link and un-link the electric motor and the gasoline engine, switching among 3 different drive modes.
The EV Drive uses the electric motor only, the Engine Drive uses the gasoline engine only and the Hybrid Drive uses both the motor and gasoline engine.

Chinese county's fake economic data exposed

 China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Thursday announced it had uncovered a serious case involving the faking of economic data by a county government in southwest China's Yunnan Province.
According to the NBS's publicized report, the government of Luliang had coerced local companies to report inflated industrial output value, resulting in artificially high economic figures.
Twenty-eight sampled local companies reported a total of 6.34 billion yuan (1.03 billion U.S. dollars) in industrial output value in 2012; however, the actual value was only 2.82 billion yuan, based on initial calculation, according to the report.
Similarly, 25 sampled local companies reported 2.74 billion yuan of industrial output value in the first half of 2013, but the NBS initially verified the actual value to be only 1.06 billion yuan.
Meanwhile, the county was also found to have faked investment data.

China resumes treasury futures trading after 18-year halt

 China re-launched trade of its treasury bond futures on Friday, 18 years after banning it following a series of irregularity cases.
The trading, which started on the Shanghai-based China Financial Futures Exchange, offered three 5-year treasury bond contracts, for December 2013, March 2014 and June 2014.

The Chinese President urged world's major economies to put their houses in order

Chinese President Xi Jinping on Thursday urged Group of 20 (G20) members to build a closer partnership to shore up the world economy.
For that purpose, the world's major economies should first adopt a responsible macroeconomic policy, he said in a speech delivered at the eighth G20 summit in this Russian city.
All major economic entities have a minimum duty of keeping their own house in order, Xi said, adding that they also need to improve communication and coordination on macroeconomic policy.
China, he added, has realized that it has to advance structural reforms in order to solve the problems hindering its long-term economic development, even though it would mean slower growth.
Meanwhile, the Chinese president urged G20 members to jointly maintain and promote the openness of the world economy and oppose all forms of trade protectionism.
G20 members, he added, should bolster a free, open and non-discriminatory multilateral trade system, and try to improve global investment rules.
Relevant parties should speed up the implementation of the reforms of the International Monetary Fund, and step up supervision on international financial markets to make the financial system truly rely on, serve and promote the development of the real economy.
He also proposed to enhance the connection among international and regional financial cooperation mechanisms and establish a firewall against financial risks.
The Chinese president also urged all G20 members to increase the quality of their economic growth and enhance their competitiveness via structural reforms.
They should also balance their own interests with the interests of others and build a global marketplace that can bring benefits to all, Xi said

G20 leaders adopt St. Petersburg development strategy

Russian President Vladimir Putin, whose country holds the rotating presidency of G20 this year and plays the host to the 2013 G20 Summit, told fellow summiteers that though situation had improved thanks to measures taken by G20 member states, it is still too early to become complacent and the group's main task is to bring back sustainable and balanced growth to the global economy.
"Unfortunately, this problem has not yet been resolved; systemic risks and conditions conducive to the recurrence of an acute crisis persist," said President Putin. "Just recently the IMF lowered its 2013 global growth forecast to 3.1 percent. Even though a year ago its estimates hovered around the 4-percent mark. The U.S. economy is growing, something that certainly makes us all very happy. Unfortunately, (the U.S.) growth is still not as fast as we would like."
As the rotating chair, Russia has prioritized quality jobs creation, transparency and trust and effective regulation as the pillars of the G20 development strategy.
The G20 leaders held their first working meeting Thursday, with one more scheduled for Friday before they should work out and announce a joint declaration.
At his summary briefing of the first day events at the St. Petersburg G20 Leaders' Summit, Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov told the press that summiteers at St. Petersburg had reached consensus to wind up short-money and to promote long-money instead.
Within G20, short money may mean supportive grants while long money means meaningful investment in development-oriented infrastructure.
"We all understand that policies that amount to giving away free money cannot continue indefinitely. So now our partners are beginning to remove non-standard financial and economic policy measures, and this may affect both the status of key global risks and the economies of other countries. As a matter of fact, we know that they are already affected," said Putin.
"We need to monitor constantly, predict possible consequences, and adopt additional preventive measures in a timely fashion at both national and global levels.

Syrian Hell: Why We Must Not Forget the Lessons from Bosnia


Giving the right approach to the events of  the civil war in Syria,in an article published  today in the
Spiegel online,says that the truth is that this conflict is not like the Afghanistan or the Iraq wars. These conflicts stand for Western hubris, for the insolubility of some religious and ethnic conflicts, for the danger of a "slippery slope," in which even a minor, short-term military engagement may end up lasting for years.
  But the reality is that the Syrian conflict looks like more to the 1990's conflict in the Balkans. What did this conflict taught us, is "that in certain circumstances it may be necessary to consider the limited use of military means in order to force a diplomatic solution  and thus peace".
  The events in Syria look more like the Bosnia conflict than  of Afghanistan and Iraq.
A first similarity of the Syrian  with the Balkans conflict is the inability to get both parties together around a negotiation table to get a political solution to the civil war.
  "Syria's president Bashar al-Assad sees no obligation at present to negotiate seriously. As long as he is convinced that his situation could continue to improve over the course of the conflict, or that he could even resolve the war in his favor, he will continue the fight. The international community needs to change this calculation if it wants to reach a political solution".
  "The Syrian opposition is now trying to counteract the material supremacy of the Assad regime, which is being supplied by Moscow and Tehran and massively supported by Hezbollah. It is only a slight exaggeration to observe that the only ones who have hardly received any support at all are the moderates within the Syrian opposition. That these forces would wither is to be expected and herein lies the real tragedy of Western failure".
 Besides,only an American-Russian entente can lead to successful diplomacy as part of a necessary contact group.
 In Syria,  we have unfortunately probably passed the point at which an intervention may have been justified, useful, and possible with reasonable means. And, as sad as it is, the general public in the West almost seems to have become accustomed to reports of massacres in Syria.
  "The risk of a regional "conflagration," of which German opponents of intervention have frequently warned, has long since become reality, without a doubt also because of our inaction. We are looking at a disintegrating country with chemical weapons in the heart of the world's most unstable region. Syria has become a rallying place for jihadists from around the world".
  "One of the great achievements of international politics and international law after the genocides of the 20th century was precisely the idea that the international community could not just ignore its responsibility, and should even take military action in extreme cases of mass atrocities. A number of years ago, the UN General Assembly endorsed this new principle, which limits national sovereignty as traditionally understood, as the "responsibility to protect" (R2P). Without a doubt, this signified progress in terms of the modern Western understanding of human rights and international law".
  Looking at Syrian conflict without intervention  "would be a step backward for the capacity of the international community to secure peace through the United Nations. For the West, it would be more than that. It would be a declaration of bankruptcy, both moral and political".

Wolfgang Ischinger

Spiegel Online

Chinese Yuan in the top 10 traded currencies

The Chinese Yuan is now in the top 10 traded currencies.
In a rapidly growing global currencies business, which the BIS said now generates $5.3 trillion a day in flows, up from $4 trillion in 2010, the yuan climbed to ninth place from 17th. Offshore trading in the currency drove this expansion, the BIS said in its report of the survey, which was carried out in April.
Since China made Hong Kong its first offshore trading center for its currency in 2009, competition has been fierce among global and regional financial hubs to become the next city to host a landmark experiment that aims to make the yuan a serious rival to the dollar's supremacy in global trade. Singapore and London have emerged as the leading candidates, with Tokyo, Sydney, Luxembourg and Kuala Lumpur also vying for a spot.
 "Trading volumes are increasing not only from corporate clients off the back of global trade but also from the investor community." analysts say.
Source: The Wall Street Journal

G-20 Economic Agenda

    - Measures to fight tax evasion by multinational companies .
    -  An initiative will be presented to leaders on refining regulation of the $630-trillion global market for            financial derivatives to prevent a possible markets blow-up.
    -  Steps to give the so-called 'shadow banking' sector until 2015 to comply with new global rules will              also be discussed.
    -  The emerging economies in the BRICS group - Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa - urged          the G20 to boost global demand and ensure that any changes in monetary policy are well flagged to          minimize any disruptive "spillovers" that may result.
    -  The appeal reflected the concerns among developing nations The BRICS also agreed to contribute          $100 billion to a joint currency reserve pool. China will commit $41 billion; Brazil, India and Russia            $18 billion each; and South Africa $5 billion.

Precious Metals Prices 11.17 a.m. Eastern time

Gold Price   3 months     US$  1,367.73

Silver price  3 months     US$      23.19

The Group of 20 is divided over Syria

The Group of 20 is divided over Syria. Obama faced mounting pressure from world leaders to
prevent the U.S. military strike in Syria.
Russian President Vladimir Putin wants to use the meeting in a seafront tsarist palace to talk Obama out of military action against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad over a chemical weapons attack which Washington blames on government forces.
The first round at the summit went to Putin as China, the European Union and Pope Francis - in a letter for G20 leaders - aligned themselves more closely with him than with Obama over the possibility and legitimacy of armed intervention.

"Military action would have a negative impact on the global economy, especially on the oil price - it will cause a hike in the oil price," Chinese Vice Finance Minister Zhu Guangyao told a briefing.
Source: Reuters

Precious Metals Prices 8.46 a.m. Eastern Time

Gold Price Futures     3 months     US$  1,390.01

Silver Price Futures    3 months    US$       23.41

U.S. Economic Indicators for today

Chain Store Sales

The handful of chain stores that continue to post monthly sales results hint at a bit of weakness for core August retail sales. A bit more chains report declining year-on-year sales rates in the month than in July, though again the sample is extremely small. Chains are holding to prior guidance with a couple describing August sales as consistent with trend. Core sales, that is ex-auto ex-gas, rose 0.4 percent in July after no change in June.
Challenger Job-Cut Report
Weakness in global mining demand tripped a surge of layoffs in the industrial goods sector and made for a 50,462 headline total for August layoff intentions. This is the highest total since February and compares with 37,701 in July and 32,239 in August last year. Layoffs in industrial goods came in at 22,162 for a 19,811 gain from July and the highest total since the heavy layoff days of January 2009. But outside of this one sector, layoffs were no heavier than prior months.
ADP Employment Report
ADP reports a slowing rise for private payroll growth, to 176,000 in August vs July's downwardly revised rise of 198,000. This is right on Econoday expectations for sizable slowing, to 177,000 vs ADP's initial July reading of 200,000.

The slowing contrasts with Econoday expectations for Friday's nonfarm payroll headline which includes government workers. Non-farm payrolls are expected to show modest improvement, to 175,000 vs July's 162,000. 
Jobless Claims
Jobless claims are moving lower to indicate health in the employment sector. Initial claims fell 9,000 in the August 31 week to a 323,000 level that is 7,000 below the Econoday consensus and very near a recovery low. Initial claims in the prior week are revised slightly higher to 332,000. The 4-week average is at a recovery low, down 3,000 to 328,500 from a revised 331,500 in the prior week. The average has been trending about 10,000 lower from July levels which points to monthly improvement in the jobs market.

Continuing claims tell the same story. Continuing claims for the August 24 week, which are the latest available data, fell 43,000 to 2.951 million with the 4-week average down 18,000 to 2.980 million. Both of these levels are very near recovery lows while the unemployment for insured workers remains at a recovery low of 2.3 percent.

Falling jobless claims do not necessarily point to new hiring but they do offer assurance that economic conditions are improving. There are no special factors at play in today's results.
Market Consensus before announcement
Initial jobless claims in the August 24 week fell 6,000 to 331,000 versus a revised 337,000 in the prior week. The 4-week average rose slightly to 331,250, after a revised 330,500 in the prior week. But a comparison with the month-ago trend shows a roughly 10,000 decline.
Source: Econoday

Energy Data for U.S.

Overview data for United States


Petroleum (Thousand Barrels per Day)
Previous Year
Latest Year
History
United States
North America
OECD
World
Rank
United States
Total Oil Production
(1980-2012)
10,135.5516,69321,62487,345311,124.05
Crude Oil Production
(1980-2012)
5,651.8811,15214,91274,15236,495.72
Consumption
(1980-2012)
18,949.4323,40546,49088,568118,554.57
Estimated Petroleum Net Exports
(1980-2012)
-8,813.88-6,712-24,866-----7,430.52
Refinery Capacity
(1980-2012)
17,73621,17845,87388,097117,736
Proved Reserves(Billion Barrels)
(1980-2011)
20.682062221,3561423.27
Natural Gas (Billion Cubic Feet)
Previous Year
Latest Year
History
United States
North America
World
Rank
United States
Production
(1980-2012)
22,902.0029,881115,993124,063.00
Consumption
(1980-2012)
24,385.0029,913118,710125,502.00
Net Export/Imports(-)
(1990-2012)
-1,962.00-537--4-1.52
Proved Reserves
(Trillion Cubic Feet)

(1980-2011)
272.513476,6374304.63
Coal (Million Short Tons)
Previous Year
Latest Year
History
United States
North America
World
Rank
United States
Production
(1980-2012)
1,094.3361,1828,44021,016.399
Consumption
(1980-2012)
1,003.0661,0728,1242890.483
Net Export/Imports(-)
(1980-2011)
62.61276--10293.723
Electricity (Billion Kilowatthours)
Previous Year
Latest Year
History
United States
North America
World
Rank
United States
Net Generation
(1980-2011)
4,125.064,97420,23814,099.05
Net Consumption
(1980-2010)
3,723.804,42217,36013,886.40
Installed Capacity (GWe)
(1980-2010)
1,025.401,2214,84311,039.06
Total Primary Energy (Quadrillion Btu)
Previous Year
Latest Year
History
United States
North America
World
Rank
United States
Production
(1980-2012)
78.001106NA279.134
Consumption
(1980-2012)
97.469119NA295.100
Energy Intensity
(Btu per 2005 U.S. Dollars)

(1980-2011)
7,5057,5147,452567,329
Carbon Dioxide Emissions (Million Metric Tons of CO₂)
Previous Year
Latest Year
History
United States
North America
World
Rank
United States
Total from Consumption of Fossil Fuels
(1980-2011)
5,636.746,61731,50225,490.63
-- = Not applicable; NA = Not available; E = Estimate value
Sources: EIA. 
Data last updated: May 30, 2013

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