Precious Metals Prices 08.09.13 10.31 p.m. Eastern Time

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Japan anticipates Olympic boost, but Fukushima shadows linger

Japan savoured its victory on Monday in the race to host the 2020 Olympic Games, anticipating an economic boost to spur its revival from two decades of stagnation and help it recover from the devastating 2011 earthquake and tsunami.

The decisive win over rivals Madrid and Istanbul is also likely to strengthen the fortunes of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who put his reputation on the line in a bold gamble that victory would boost national confidence, a key ingredient in the success so far of his aggressive pro-growth policies.The economic impact of the win was estimated by the Tokyo bid committee at more than 3 trillion yen ($30 billion) with the creation of 150,000 jobs. If the Nikkei stock index follows the examples of the London and Athens bourses after those cities won the games, it could see a one to three-month rally.
But Tokyo, which in 1964 became the first city in Asia to host the Olympic games, won the right to host the world's biggest sporting extravaganza despite concerns over the leaking Fukushima nuclear plant 230 km (140 miles) from the Japanese capital.

Source: NewsOnJapan

Emerging market crisis may derail global recovery

The emerging market (EM) crisis currently under way in Asia and Latin America may derail the incipient global economic recovery, according to QNB Group. 
The financial turmoil unleashed by the Federal Reserve (Fed) announcement that it will start tapering its asset-purchasing program soon, has led to large capital flight from most EM, a large weakening of their currencies, and higher long-term interest rates globally. If the Fed starts QE tapering in its forthcoming meeting on Sept. 17-18 as announced, this is likely to unleash further EM capital flight, thus undermining their economic growth and reducing global export demand. 
This will inevitably have a knock-on effect on the relatively weak growth in the US and the incipient recovery in Europe. 
On June 19, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke announced a tapering of its QE policies contingent upon continued positive US economic data. 
This announcement marked an end to three waves of QE that have flooded US financial markets since 2009 with an estimated $2.9 trillion (19.3 percent of US GDP), according to the economic research of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. 

The opportunities to invest QE resources have been limited in advanced economies given the near zero interest rates in Europe,Japan and the U.S. Global financial institutions therefore used a significant portion of this liquidity to invest in EM, which offered higher returns. This led to higher EM exchange rates, lower interest rates, and to some extent higher growth momentum.

  The announcement in June 19th by  Chairman Bernanke that the Fed may, start tapering its bond buying,was like an alarm sign to Global financial Institutions(GFI).   As has been the case in previous EM crises, it pays to be the first one out of the door, because exchange rates are still high and it is easier to liquidate large financial investments when foreign exchange liquidity is still plentiful. Accordingly, GFI have rushed to liquidate their EM investments since the Fed announcement in order to cash in their capital gains and avoid being faced with policy measures that could restrict their capital movement. The result has been a panic selling of EM exchange rates. 

The Fed announcement has also lowered demand for government bonds globally, thus leading to higher long-term interest rates in EM and, to a lesser extent, in advanced economies. 

Today's EM crisis has serious implications also for advanced economies. Unlike in the 1990s, advanced economies are today more than ever dependent on EM for their own growth. China, the US, Germany and Japan were the world's largest exporters in 2012 and an increasing share of their exports have flown to emerging markets in recent years. A significant decline in EM growth would inevitably have a knock-on effect on their own exports and therefore on their growth momentum. This comes at a critical time in the global recovery, where the United States is still showing relatively weak economic growth and Europe is slowly coming out of a two-year long recession. A significant slowdown in EM economic growth could therefore put in jeopardy the recovery in advanced economies as well.

Source: Arab News

Japan Q2 GDP revised up to 0.9 pct

 Japan's economy expanded 0.9 percent in April-June from the previous quarter, government data showed on Monday, revised up from a preliminary 0.6 percent increase.

The result matched the median market forecast in a Thomson Reuters poll of economists.

The revised gross domestic product figure translates into an annualised 3.8 percent growth, up from an initial reading of 2.6 percent and against a median market forecast for a 3.7 percent increase, the data released by the Cabinet Office showed.

The upward revision underscores the view Japan's economy is on track for a moderate recovery and may heighten the case for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to proceed with a scheduled sales tax increase from next year.

Source: NewsOnJapan

CNPC sign agreement with Gazprom to import natural gas

The China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) said on Friday that it has signed a framework agreement with Russian energy giant Gazprom to import natural gas.

The agreement is a breakthrough after years of negotiation on bilateral gas cooperation, and paves the way for a final deal that the two companies have agreed to sign at the end of this year, said the CNPC in a statement.

Gazprom will start delivering gas to China in 2018, said the CNPC.

China XD Electric, GE form alliance

China XD Electric Co., Ltd. announced on Friday a strategic alliance with the General Electric Company to tap China's vast electrical infrastructure market.

The Shanghai-listed company in May of this year transferred a 15 percent stake worth 3.38 billion yuan (546 million U.S. dollars) through private placement, making the U.S. conglomerate its second-largest shareholder after parent company China XD Group, which now holds a 51.10 percent stake.

The two companies also agreed to form a joint venture to distribute GE's electrical grid solutions to XD's local customers.

The alliance between the two companies is a crucial step for China XD Electric in implementing its "going abroad" strategies, said Zhang Yalin, board chairman of the company.

Zhang said the move would help the company build its advantages in the traditional market while serving the the structural adjustment of China's energy industry.

XD Electric will benefit from GE's advanced management experience to boost the company's "soft power" in its efforts to expand globally, he added.

Dan Janki, president and CEO of GE Energy Management, said cooperation between the two sides will enable them to offer solutions to China's rapidly growing transmission and distribution industry. The cooperation will also sharpen GE's competitiveness in the Chinese market, he said.

China XD Electric is one of China's largest primary equipment providers and exports to over 40 countries.

Source: Xinhua

China's exports rise 7.2 % in August

China's exports rose 7.2 percent year on year to 190.61 billion U.S. dollars in August, according to customs figures released on Sunday.

The growth rate was 2.1 percentage points higher than July.

Imports also rose last month, gaining 7 percent to 162.09 billion U.S. dollars, the General Administration of Customs said in a statement.

Total foreign trade grew 7.1 percent in August over the same month in 2012 to 352.7 billion U.S. dollars, said the statement.

Trade surplus widened by 8.4 percent year on year to 28.52 billion U.S. dollars last month, the highest since January this year.

Chinese authorities have exempted all outbound goods, transport vehicles and containers from inspection and quarantine fees from Aug. 1 to Dec. 31 this year.

Meanwhile, the government has pledged consistency and stability of its macroeconomic policies. Added to this, there has been a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy.

In August, imports and exports with the European Union, China's largest trade partner, rose 3.2 percent, while that with the United States, China's second-largest trade partner, rose 9.2 percent.

Trade with ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) members increased 13.3 percent. Trade with Japan shrank 6 percent during the period.

Mei Xinyu, a foreign trade expert at the Ministry of Commerce, said that European and U.S. economies recovered with increasing demand, while Chinese companies were given an extra competitive edge by macro stability at home.

Sunday's data showed that exports of electronics and machinery products grew by 6.7 percent to reach 106.45 billion U.S. dollars in August, accounting for 55.9 percent of total exports.

China's manufacturing sector saw a strong recovery last month, offering further signs that the world's second-largest economy is moving out of the shadows of a protracted slowdown.

Data from China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing showed that the sub-index for new export orders in August jumped to a 16-month high of 52.4 percent, which is convincing evidence of a strong recovery.

Source: Xinhua

The Global Competitiveness Index 2013-14

Europe fails to tap Caspian Sea's surging gas supplies

European countries are losing out to China in their quest to source natural gas from the Central Asian states.Moving away from dependence on Russia and Middle East hydrocarbons was a key energy objective of European countries in the 1990s, and the oil and natural gas resources along the Caspian Sea was seen as a vital alternative.
Instead, European oil dependence on Russia and the Middle East has grown from 75% in 2000 to 84% by 2010. In addition, EU reliance on gas imports has also risen from 49% to 62% during the period.
EU countries such as Austria, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Finland, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, and Slovakia all depend on Russia for over 60% of their gas imports. In addition, countries aspiring to be EU members such as Moldova, Turkey, and Ukraine rely on Russia for over 65% of their imports.
Central Asia is estimated to hold more than 11% of world proven gas reserves, primarily in Turkmenistan, which has lagged behind Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan in attracting outside investments. 
But while China has moved swiftly to source supplies from Central Asian states of Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan, Europe has been distracted by a crippling economic recession.
"European gas demand is likely to continue to struggle for the next five years, facing competition from cheaper coal and the promotion of renewables, while also suffering due to poor economic performance," said the Economist Intelligence Unit in a new report.
"As a result, the sense of urgency in opening up the Caspian region's gas supply to European customers--while still viewed as important--has somewhat dissipated. Nevertheless, it is still important for south-east European states, where dependence on gas from Russia is the strongest."

Source: Zawya

China and Kazakhastan increasing economic ties

China and Kazakhstan are important cooperation partner of each other and have achieved fruitful results in pragmatic cooperation, Xi said in an address at the founding ceremony of the China-Kazakhstan Entrepreneurs Committee.

China is the largest trade partner of Kazakhstan, while the Central Asian country is China's largest investment destination within the Commonwealth of Independence States (CIS), he noted.

Xi listed that China and Kazakhstan jointly built China's first cross-country crude oil pipeline and first 

international border cooperation center, and that China helped Kazakhstan construct its first major 

hydropower station since independence.

These cooperation achievements have not only brought tangible benefits to the two peoples, but also provided unremitting drive force for the development of China-Kazakhstan relations, he said.

The China-Kazakhstan Entrepreneurs Committee is the first bilateral business cooperation mechanism China set up with a Central Asian country, which testifies to the high level of pragmatic cooperation between the two countries as well as their business sectors' eagerness to deepen cooperation, Xi said.

He also encouraged the committee to come up with a package of new projects in such fields as interconnection, agriculture, high-tech and clean and new energy, so as to further the development of China-Kazakhstan cooperation both in scale and on level.

Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev, also present at the founding ceremony, said Kazakhstan and China are good partners and have made outstanding achievements in cooperation in economy and trade.

Xi's visit to Kazakhstan has prompted the two sides to reach a series of important agreements, and thereby effectively boosted bilateral cooperation, Nazarbayev said.

He said Kazakhstan is willing to expand cooperation with China in areas like energy and interconnection, and to revive the Silk Road.

Nazarbayev called on the newly founded committee to actively boost exchanges between the two countries' companies and open up a new prospect for bilateral cooperation in economy, trade and investment.

Source: Xinhua

Intervistato dalla Cbs, Assad ha annunciato ritorsioni in caso di attacco.

Il presidente siriano Bashar Assad minaccia una ritorsione in caso di attacco americano. E avverte che in caso di intervento armato di Usa e Francia, gli amici della Siria, le milizie libanesi di Hezbollah e l'Iran (tutti uniti dalla comune fede sciita) effettuerebbero rappresaglie. Dopo l'intervista della settimana scorsa al francese Le Figaro, il presidente siriano parla ancora con i media occidentali. E questa volta lo fa con l'americana Cbs. Quella con il giornalista Charlie Rose è la prima intervista di Assad a una emittente americana in circa due anni. Il presidente siriano ha ribadito di non essere dietro l'attacco con armi chimiche del 21 agosto, ripetendo che non ci sono prove dell'evento.

  Secondo Assad, ha riferito Rose, un attacco potrebbe diminuire le capacità delle sue truppe (come vorrebbe Barack Obama) ma così facendo si concederebbe un vantaggio alle frange qaediste dell'opposizione.

   Charlie Rose ha intervistato Assad nel palazzo presidenziale di Damasco. L'intervista sarà trasmessa interamente sulla Cbs lunedì sera, lo stesso giorno in cui il presidente americano Barack Obama concederà interviste a sei reti americane nella sua azione a tappeto per convincere il Congresso e gli americani a sostenere l'azione militare in Siria.

L'INTERVISTA AL NUMERO UNO DI VODAFONE

L'INTERVISTA AL NUMERO UNO DI VODAFONE: vendita del 45% di Verizon wireless

«Grazie alla vendita passiamo da 6 a 8 miliardi di sterline di investimenti, vuole dire circa 10 miliardi di euro di capitali da impiegare ogni anno. Il consolidamento è inevitabile. E l'Italia rimane centrale per Vodafone». La soddisfazione è scontata: con 130 miliardi di dollari si tratta del secondo più grande deal di sempre dopo Vodafone-Mannesmann (del '99) e prima, tanto per dare un'idea, della scalata di America Online a Time Warner (2000), dell'acquisizione di Abn Amro da parte di Rbs, Santander e Fortis (2007) e anche della fusione Exxon-Mobil ('98). 

Nella vendita del 45% di Verizon Wireless c'è un trade-off: da una parte Vodafone lascia gli Usa, mercato maturo che ancora produce un enorme cash-flow, dall'altra ottiene una cassa invidiabile che, forse, in questo momento non ha nessuno. Come avete ponderato la scelta? 
«Non siamo usciti dal mercato americano perché non ci siamo mai stati. In Verizon avevamo un investimento finanziario e se il brand Vodafone è oggi in America è grazie all'acquisizione di Cable&Wireless. L'investimento in Verizon ha quintuplicato il valore da quando lo abbiamo fatto. Anche Verizon migliora il suo profilo di cassa e utili grazie a una transazione che riporta loro concentrati sull'America e noi sull'Europa e sui mercati emergenti». 

In questo processo di consolidamento Vodafone è già in posizione per diventare la At&t europea? 
«Non direi che vogliamo diventare la At&t perché sembra che abbiamo bisogno di copiare le loro strategie. Siamo già l'operatore europeo per eccellenza e siamo molto forti anche in India, Africa e Oceania». 

Corriere della Sera