Friday 21 June 2013

CHINA AND RUSSIA INCREASING BILATERAL TRADE

The trade volume between China and Russia is expected to hit 100 billion U.S. dollars in 2014, a year ahead of the target set by leaders from the two countries, a Russian trade representative forecast Friday.
China's imports from Russia mainly include oil and raw materials, the price of which has fallen remarkably in past months.
In addition to energy cooperation, the two countries can strengthen cooperation on technology, agriculture and tourism, said Lu Nanquan, deputy director of the Russian Research Center under the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
Aerospace, nanotechnology, high-end manufacturing, energy conservation and environmental protection, biochemistry and information technology are key areas in which China and Russia can compliment each other, said Lu.
China is currently Russia's largest trading partner, with the trade volume between the two countries reaching 88.16 billion U.S. dollars in 2012.
Source: Xinhuanet

Meet Li Keqiang (李克强) China’s new premier

-Li Keqiang, 57, was appointed Chinese premier on , at a time when China has become the world's second largest economy. He is the first premier born after the founding of the People's Republic of China in 1949 to hold dual academic degrees in economics and law.


Li chaired a seminar on reform six days after the conclusion of the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC) in November.
At the seminar, Li put forward the "reform as dividends" theory. "Reform at present has entered deep water and has to sail in a head tide. We may spare mistakes if we make no endeavor, but we must bear a historical responsibility," he said.
Administrative reform became a top priority after the 18th CPC National Congress.
Li insisted on cutting down the cabinet departments down to 25 to bring more efficiency. This round of cabinet restructuring is the seventh to take place in China since the country's reform and opening up in the late 1970s. Like any reform of its kind, this round represents a difficult challenge.
 He called for decentralizing power over the market, society and local authorities by decreasing government intervention.
 He has also pushed to reduce and decentralize government approvals for investment and businesses, as well as cut market access examinations and administrative charges. Since many entrepreneurs complain the business registry procedures are too complicated, Li helps change the system by granting licenses more freely. Entrepreneurs are now allowed to register their companies by agreeing upon registered capital, instead of actual contributions.
While reviewing a price reform plan for coal and electricity, Li approved of its market orientation but believed that it was too characteristic of a planned economy. "Given that all coal is sold at market price, why are there still restrictions on quantity and price? The contracts between enterprises brook no checks from the government. The contract law shall solely apply," he once said.

Transformation
The 18th CPC National Congress urged the synchronized development of industrialization, IT application, urbanization and agricultural modernization.
Li believes that the deep integration of industrialization and IT application is the orientation and impetus of industrial upgrades. He has noticed that the integration of IT and power-generating technology in developed countries can significantly boost the utilization of renewable energy generation by opening to small companies and families.
Since it is difficult to integrate wind and solar power into the grid, Li has called for studying energy development of foreign countries and opening the grid to small-scale distributed power generation by utilizing information technology. China's National Grid has since been connected to several small solar power generators operated by small companies and families.

Urbanization
He considers urbanization to be the biggest source of development for the coming decades.
Li's doctoral thesis at Peking University, "On the Ternary Structure of China's Economy," won the Sun Yefang Economics Prize, the highest honor in China's economic circles. It reflected his thorough understanding on both world trend and China's reality. Through deliberation and practices of more than 20 years, Li has nurtured strategic theories of new urbanization.
He believes that China's urbanization should be conducted using advanced concepts and managerial expertise from abroad. He was deeply impressed by the urban layout of European cities, as well as their living environment and public services, during visits in the 1980s and 1990s.
In 2012, when he was preparing to visit Europe as vice premier, he proposed holding a high-level China-Europe forum on urbanization. One month later, almost 600 experts, businessmen and officials from China and Europe gathered in Brussels to discuss sustainable city planning and infrastructure-building. The forum became a new platform for strategic and practical cooperation between China and Europe.
Li has been pondering how to achieve a unification of scientific development and cultural progress in the process of urbanization. He has repeatedly stressed that urbanization should be a people-first drive which will eventually enrich rural residents and benefit the entire population. A key issue is to help over 200 million farmer-turned migrant workers gradually adapt to urban life.
Li Keqiang has paid close attention to the development of service industry, employment and low-income subsidized housing. Over the past five years, China has started the construction or renovation of 30 million units of affordable housing. Seventeen million units have been completed, improving housing conditions for millions of people.
Li has called for closing not only the gap between urban and rural areas, but the gap between different districts within cities. More than 12 million dilapidated urban homes were renovated over the last five years. In February, Li called on to initiate the second round of slum renovation.In the coming five years, another 10 million urban households can expect to bid farewell to slums. A total of nearly 100 million people will benefit from the two rounds of renovation.
China should not "build high-rises on the one side and keep slums on the other side" in the course of urbanization. He called for greater efforts to renovate the city's dilapidated areas and provide better houses for its residents. "This is an overarching issue concerning people's livelihoods that should be pushed ahead against all odds," he said.
Responding to mounting complaints over worsening air pollution in some cities, Li called for the monitoring and release of PM2.5 (air-borne fine particles measuring 2.5 microns or less in diameter) data to be conducted nationwide at a conference on environmental protection held in December. As a result, China has adopted stricter air quality standards, and PM2.5 monitoring is now conducted in 113 cities.
Li brings modern managerial expertise when analyzing China's actual condition. He said the government should prioritize basic needs when providing social services, as well as build an all-inclusive security network.
Problem Resolver
To sidestep difficulties is not Li's style. He always comes to resolve conflicts with resolution, far-sightedness and systematic knowledge. Overseas media deemed Li as a master hand in resolving complicated difficulties.
Li said that in China's modernization drive, "we must have the resolution and confidence similar in scaling high peaks and also the courage, wisdom and perseverance similar in walking a tightrope.
After leaving his post at the Central Committee of the Communist Youth League of China in 1998, Li became head of Henan Province, followed by a post as head of Liaoning Province. The two provinces' problems were typical of modern China. The agricultural province of Henan was struggling to modernize its agriculture and push ahead with urbanization, while industrial Liaoning was facing painful transformation of its outdated economic structure.
Li proposed a comprehensive approach to develop Henan. He put forward a raft of policies, including building a "national granary," mapping out the province's industrial layout and building a city cluster in central China. He consolidated Henan's agricultural strength while pushing it to become an industrial center and a new growth engine in central China.
As CPC chief of Liaoning, he confronted an economy burdened with poorly operated state-owned enterprises and an industry that had failed to open up, despite the province's vast coastline. Li encouraged the province to turn toward the sea and develop a coastal economic belt.
His efforts helped connect the inland areas of Liaoning to the sea and boosted urban integration in the cities of Shenyang and Fushun. Today, the development of Liaoning's coastal economic zone becomes a national economic strategy. Li also helped resolve social security problems of millions of workers and promote the transformation of resource-exhausted cities.
When serving as the vice premier of the State Council, Li was tasked to oversee the country's healthcare system reform, a challenge for policymakers around the world. The reform has been progressing with the goal of providing a basic medical system as a public service to all.
"Reform is 'the biggest dividend' for China, and the dividend shall benefit the country's 1.3 billion people," Li said. China now boasts the largest medical insurance network in the world after its coverage was expanded from 30 percent to 95 percent within three years.
Li is known for his love of reading, a habit he has nurtured since adolescence. His most favored books include literary and historical classics written in both Chinese and English. Li has a profound knowledge of law and economics and is also an eloquent English speaker.
Li is married to Cheng Hong, an English professor at the Beijing-based Capital University of Economics and Business. Cheng graduated from college in 1982 and met Li while studying at Peking University. The couple has one daughter.
Source: Xinhuanet

Getting back to normalcy in interest rates. It won´t come easy

The latest Bubble was in the Bonds Market,and it will come to an end with lots of pain and volatility
in the financial markets.After the FOMC meeting,Mr Bernanke hinted, that if the economy continues to get better, the Federal Reserve will start to tap its bond purchases program . This statement  heralded the end of easy money by the Fed, and it roiled financial markets on Wednesday, continued yesterday and today was a volatile session with mixed results.
  The peril is not that the easy money is going to end smoothly according to the Federal Reserve schedule. Institutional investors are not going to wait, they will make their decisions in terms of risk and reward as always. How much will they gain keeping bond investments(not much), towards how less risk they take by selling bonds,avoiding price losses and increasing yields, in a new scenario of increasing interest rates.
  Today is a Triple Witching day when stock market indexes,stock market index options,stock
options expire on the same day,which are days with greater volatility. And it has been a unstable
day for markets in  the US, although indexes closed with mixed results,with DJIA at 14,779.40   0.28% higher,Nasdaq at 3,357.25  0.22% lower, and S&P 500 at 1592.43 higher 0.27%.
 Prices of US bonds closed lower, US$ 10 year Bond Price changed -31/32 with a 2.54 yield, and the 30 year Bond  Price changed 16/32 with a yield of 3.589%
And has continued to pressure to the downside the bonds prices of emerging markets and developing
countries,and the depreciation of their local currencies.



Rosneft wants to become important in the Global Energy Sector

From Russia Beyond the Headlines

"Rosneft has taken a 30 percent stake in 20 deepwater exploration blocks in the Gulf of Mexico held by U.S. giant Exxon Mobil, the Russian company announced after its CEO, Igor Sechin, set out the company’s ambitious plans to an international audience of investors on March 6 at the Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA) Week in Houston, Texas.
Sechin, an influential former deputy prime minister and close ally of President Vladimir Putin, emphasized Rosneft’s increased collaboration with foreign oil companies, such as Exxon, Italy’s Eni and Norway’s Statoil, to attract investment for the exploration of Russia's offshore energy fields. Rosneft already has a strategic partnership with Britain’s BP, which last year became a major 
shareholder in Rosneft in exchange for its 50 percent stake in TNK-BP.
"After the acquisition closing, which is expected to take place early in the second quarter of 2013, Rosneft will provide to its investors an updated synergies forecast for the united company," Sechin said during the CERA conference.
Rosneft is in the process of buying 100 percent of TNK-BP. According to a Rosneft statement, the purchase is slated to be completed in the first half of this year. Rosneft will pay BP some $12 billion in cash and the British company will be getting a 19.7 percent stock interest in the Russian outfit. Rosneft plans to pay the AAR consortium (Alfa Group, Access Industries and Renova), the other TNK-BP shareholder, $28 billion in cash for its stake.
After the Rosneft´s TNK-BP takeover is completed.
BP´s partnership with Rosneft could increase, joint ventures could be done in the Artic and off shore
fields, and they will might include joint production by BP and Rosneft in Venezuela.
The deal with ExxonMobil will give Rosneft 30 percent in offshore blocks covering a total area of 450 square kilometers. Seventeen are located in the western Gulf of Mexico, and the other three are in the central Guld. Depths vary from 640 meters to 2,070 meters.
ExxonMobil is also expected to participate in the exploration of Rosneft's offshore fields in Russia together with Eni and Statoil. Together, Rosneft’s partners could invest up to $14 billion into geological exploration".

From Russia Beyond the Headline. International Economic Forum in St Petersburg

Russian and Western officials universally lauded the Customs Union of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia at a panel on economic integration at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF).
“If our overall growth in foreign trade totalled about three percent last year, growth within the Customs Union exceeded nine percent. The annual growth in trade of manufactured goods within the Customs Union has gone from 18 percent at its founding three years ago to 23 percent now,”said Tatiana Valovaya, Minister for Integration and Macroeconomics of the Eurasian Economic Commission (EEC).
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov emphasized the economic nature of the project. “There are people in all three countries – mostly the older generation – with fond memories of the USSR who would like to think of the Customs Union as a political force in the world. I say with complete honesty – the union of political institutions is not on the agenda of this organization at any level.”
The Customs Union of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan came into existence on January 1, 2010 as part of an attempt to create a single EU-type Eurasian Economic Space by 2015. In July 2011 customs borders were removed between the three countries, leading to surging trade levels.
Other countries that have expressed interest in joining the EEC include Armenia, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Ukraine and Vietnam.

Former US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton denounced the EEC as an attempt by Russia to reassert control over the post-Soviet space.

From Reuters. The People´s Bank of China is trying to choke Shadow Banking


The banks have been using cheap official funds to finance the vast "shadow banking" market, which Beijing worries is siphoning credit from industry and creating asset-price bubbles.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has tried to put an end to this over the past three weeks, declining to inject significant funds into the money markets even as the interest rate for some banks to borrow short-term funds has soared to 25 percent or higher.
This new approach, where you are trying to tighten the funding in the system available for the shadow  banking, is much more effective.
Some calm returned on Friday after rumors of some major banks needing emergency funding were quelled. There was also market talk the central bank had guided the biggest state lenders to provide more short-term funds to smaller banks.
China's cabinet this week affirmed its commitment to reducing financial risks and ensuring that credit growth supported the real economy.

China´s Central Bank will keep prudent monetary adding liquidity on a reasonable scale

Amid market concerns over a liquidity crunch, Bank of China, one of China's "big four" banks, on Thursday evening denied a media report alleging the bank had defaulted earlier in the day.
The 21st Century Business Herald on Thursday reported through its official Sina Weibo account that BOC had defaulted on Thursday afternoon.
In response to the allegation, BOC posted a statement on its official Sina Weibo, saying that it has never had monetary defaults and had timely completed all outbound payments on Thursday.
BOC also said that the rumors are "seriously unfounded" and the bank reserves the right to pursue legal action against those who started the rumors out of malicious intent.
Recent interest rate increases in China's inter-bank market have raised market concerns over a liquidity crunch.
The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (SHIBOR) overnight rate surged 578.40 base points to 13.44 percent on Thursday, and fixing Repo 7-day, another gauge of interbank interest, gained 292.9 base points to 11 percent.
However, the central bank issued three-month bank bills worth 2 billion yuan ($324 million) on Tuesday and Thursday, respectively, missing market expectation over large-scale liquidity injection.
China´s Central Bank officials have said yesterday, that they will maintain a prudent monetary policy with reasonable scale of monetary aggregates.

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