Wednesday 24 July 2013

Foreign Tourists to Japan increased 22.8% in H1

The number of foreign visitors to Japan in January-June rose 22.8 pct from a year before to an estimated 4,954,600, hitting a record high for the first-half period, the Japan National Tourism Organization said Wednesday.
The increase came as the yen's recent weakening made travel to Japan cheaper, according to the government-affiliated agency. Also behind the growth were service launches by new low-cost carriers.The number of visitors increased for the second straight year on a first-half basis, according to the JNTO.

Precious Metals Quotes

Gold Price     3months futures    US$ 1,320.56

Silver Price    3months futures    US$     20.09

China disputes with Japan territorial waters near Senkaku Islands

The Japan Coast Guard has spotted Chinese coast guard ships for the first time near the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea, Japanese officials said Wednesday.

Chinese patrol boats Haijing 2101, Haijing 2166, Haijing 2350 and Haijing 2506 were seen entering the contiguous zone surrounding territorial waters around Kubajima, one of the five Senkaku islands, between 10:50 a.m. (1:50 a.m. GMT) and 11 a.m., according to the 11th Regional Coast Guard Headquarters in Naha.
Japan Coast Guard ships told the Chinese ships not to approach Japanese waters. The Haijing 2350 replied in Chinese and Japanese that the ships were patrolling waters under Chinese jurisdiction, the Japanese officials said.



Investors are selling bonds and buying money-market mutual funds,not stocks.

Investors are cashing out of bonds but remain hesitant to plunge into stocks, preferring instead to buy money-market mutual funds despite their low returns. The surprise move highlights persistent investor anxiety with equities even as stock indexes reach new highs.
Investors withdrew an estimated $43 billion from taxable bond mutual funds last month, the largest-ever monthly outflow, according to the Investment Company Institute. The debt-market swoon was fueled by worries that the Federal Reserve was softening its commitment to keeping interest rates low. Rising interest rates mean lower bond prices.

Many observers expected to see those flows turn to funds tracking U.S. stocks. But in a twist, the main beneficiary of the rush out of bonds has been money-market funds, which are cash-like investments that appeal to safety-minded investors.Assets in these portfolios increased for the fourth week in a row in the week ended July 17, rising $8.5 billion to $2.6 trillion, ICI data show. That left money-market funds, which pay barely more than simply holding dollars, with the most cash since early April.
The shift highlights the uncertain investing outlook at a time of near record-low interest rates and tepid economic growth, along with the risk aversion that has sent money into bond funds following the stock-market plunge of 2008.
Source: WSJ

China: A Railway development fund will created with Government Resources.

Upcoming reforms will completely open China's railway construction market, according to a statement released Wednesday after an executive meeting of the State Council presided over by Premier Li Keqiang.
A railway development fund will be established using government investment and social capital, the statement said, adding that local regions and social capital will have ownership and management rights for inter-city railway links and municipal rail links.
Government investment and the railway system's financing have long been the primary sources of capital for railway construction. However, these limited channels have become increasingly unable to meet demand for capital.
Analysts said the sector should diversify and attract more social capital for construction projects by breaking up monopolies and investment barriers.
The government will prioritize railway construction in central and west China, as well as poor parts of the country, in order to boost urbanization and coordinated development between regions.
 During the 2013-2015 period, major railway construction projects will be initiated in a timely way and progress according to plan, the statement said.
Source: Xinhua

Asian maritime disputes and Neighbours of China containment Geopolitics

"The dominant Western strategic discourse today is about the rise of Asia. This Asian growth story is however not without its challenges, according to this discourse. Maritime disputes, nuclear proliferation, China-India rivalry in the Indian Ocean, China-Japan-Vietnam rivalry, and other examples of discord, are being increasingly interpreted as existential threats to the international system. Why? Because like Europe in the past, Asian rivalries for power and influence is bound to be conflict-prone. This aspect is so over-emphasized that one worries if it will become a self-fulfilling prophecy and result in an Asian War. 
A close look at this dominant strategic discourse reveals a few points as most insistent over others. First, Asia is an emerging economic powerhouse and will host some of the richest countries in the world by 2030. Second, this economic rise will quickly result in rapid military modernizations. Third, Asian military modernization will lead to conflict especially over territorial issues. Fourth, these conflicts will get even more entrenched as China aims to become the hegemon in Asia. 
These developments are having a major impact on the geopolitics of the region. It seems a sound idea to form 
countervailing alliances especially strategic partnerships between China's neighbors and the United States 
including military alliances, in order to keep China contained.

Asian countries believe that military partnerships and strategic alignments against China would only make China more aggressive in its desire to break out of that circle of containment. 
The discourse on rising competition and eventual Asian war forewarns the people of Asia given their experiences of wars between Asian states not so long ago.  Those memories continue to linger, through stories handed down by earlier generations, popular culture and academic writings. 

Hence, there are two discourses in the world today. A dominant Western one views Asia as a vehicle of economic growth and military competition, resulting in plausible military conflict. The alternative discourse is the Asian "cautionary" discourse about Asia's rise, where talk of wars and military interventions of any kind is treated with extreme caution. 
Neighbouring Asian countries and India are concerned about  China's recent territorial aggression in the South and East China Seas, and India's border. However, none of them would want to live through an Asian military conflict over territorial differences. Hence, there is a growing determination to create the regional institutional mechanisms to avert the negative impacts of China's rise and instead showcase the positive aspects: a country rising from tremendous hardships internally to become one of Asia's own success story. It is rather important 
that the West pay more attention to this alternative discourse".

AsiaTimes Dr Namrata Goswami

Shanghai's success as a business hub

 The continued expansion of the service sector and renewed attraction of foreign investment helped Shanghai's economic performance in the first half of the year to beat the national average.
The city's gross domestic product from January to June grew 7.7 percent year-on-year, exceeding the national average by 0.1 of a percentage point, the municipal government announced on Tuesday.
The better-than-anticipated economic output suggested the business hub's attempts toward a more value-added economy have started to pay dividends, experts said. The reading also marked the first economic rebound since last year, when Shanghai's growth eased to 7.5 percent, missing the national target.
Looking further ahead, economists predict an increasing share of growth impetus will come from the free trade zone, which, they said, will help to redefine Shanghai's position as a services center of international stature.
In the first six months of the year, the service sector, which encompasses property, finance, telecommunications and tourism, outpaced that of the agricultural and industrial sectors to grow at 9.6 percent, claiming 61.7 percent of the city's GDP.
The figure showed a continued expansion by 1.3 percentage points from the same time last year, reflecting the increasing pace of its transformation into a service-oriented economy, said Yan Jun, chief economist at Shanghai Municipal Statistics Bureau.
The surge was led by fixed-asset investment from the service sector, such as commercial rents, which advanced by 16.7 percent year-on-year, taking up the lion's share of overall input.
The sector also gained the most traction in foreign direct investment, where $10 billion worth of contracted foreign capital was garnered, up 10.1 percent. The amount was equal to 88 percent of all investment drawn in during the period.
The financial sector also posted robust annual growth of 14.7 percent. For instance, transaction volumes of shares traded at the Shanghai Stock Exchange grew by 14.3 percent year-on-year
But overall economic growth was snagged by a deeper slowdown in trade and manufacturing, at a time when global economic uncertainty lingers.
Trade volumes shrank 3.7 percent, with a drop in exports by 4.3 percent and imports by 3.2 percent.
A 1.9 percent ebb in the producer price index, a key gauge indicating the health of the manufacturing sector, pointed to a contraction in demand.
A pickup in the pace of growth indicates the transformation toward a service-oriented economy has borne fruit, said Sun Lijian, professor of economics at Fudan University in Shanghai.
"We are starting to see new areas of growth that may offset the loss from the restructuring process, which is characterized by the shift from a manufacturing-based, export-led economy, to one driven by domestic consumption and the development of services," he said.
Yan believes the forthcoming free trade zone will further beef up growth and catapult Shanghai to the forefront of global trade and financial hubs.
"Instead of simply policy incentives, the zone is an 'institutional arrangement' for Shanghai to carry out various trade and financial experiments," he said.
Source: Xinhua

China's new rules for FX in the Services Trade

China will expedite foreign exchange transactions in the services trade by streamlining administrative procedures, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) announced Wednesday.
Under the new rules, which will be effective from Sept. 1, a forex payment or settlement transaction in the services trade that is equivalent to 50,000 U.S. dollars or less can proceed without having to verify its transaction documents, the SAFE said in an online statement.
The simplified procedure is expected to benefit about 88 percent of China's services-trade-related forex transactions, according to SAFE data.
Other measures unveiled on Wednesday include those to allow services trade forex transactions to be handled directly at financial institutions and to permit companies in the services trade to deposit their foreign currency earnings overseas.
While loosening controls, the SAFE also vowed to ramp up supervision of the services trade forex flowing into and out of the country in order to prevent risks.
China has been emphasizing the service sector's role in lifting growth and creating jobs amid the country's recent economic slowdown.
The service sector accounted for roughly 44.6 percent of China's GDP in 2012, and policymakers aim to raise that to 47 percent by 2015.

China will suspend VAT on small businesses

China will suspend the value-added tax (VAT) and turnover tax on small businesses with monthly sales of less than 20,000 yuan (3,226 U.S. dollars) from Aug. 1.
The announcement was made in a statement released Wednesday after an executive meeting of the State Council presided over by Premier Li Keqiang.
The move will benefit more than six million small companies and directly relate to tens of millions of people, the statement said.
VAT refers to a tax levied on the difference between a commodity's price before taxes and its cost of production. Turnover tax refers to a levy on the gross revenue of a business.
The meeting also discussed measures to facilitate foreign trade and stabilize exports such as simplifying customs clearance, cutting operational fees, increasing financial support for profitable companies, facilitating exports of small and mid-sized private enterprises, increasing imports and maintaining a stable RMB exchange rate.
The country will fully open up its railway construction market through reforms and give priority to railway construction in the central and western regions as well as poor areas, according to the statement.
Source: Xinhua

Government Bonds Quotes

Government Bonds

                                                                                                           Yield
                                                                                  Price Change      %
U.S. 5 Year-10/321.380
U.S. 10 Year-21/322.590
U.S. 30 Year-1 4/323.647
Germany 2 Year-1/320.162
Germany 10 Year-28/321.650
Italy 2 Year0/321.969
Italy 10 Year-2/324.362
Japan 2 Year0/320.130
Japan 10 Year2/320.774
Spain 2 Year1/321.889
Spain 10 Year-5/324.697
U.K. 2 Year-2/320.366
U.K. 10 Year-23/322.397

 Government bond prices fell today due to better than expected German, EU & US indicators

                July                                  Real     Expected
 German Markit Services PMI        52.50         50.8
 German Markit Manufacturing      50.30         49.40
 PMI
 EU Markit Manufacturing PMI     50.10          49.20
 EU Markit Services PMI                49.60         48.5
 
 U.S. New Home Sales                    497k          481k
 U.S.Manufacturing Index
 Flash                                                53.2           52.8
 

Japan is close to escape from deflation

Japan's economy is on the verge of escaping from nearly two decades of deflation as it has picked up since the beginning of this year, a government report said Tuesday, emphasizing positive aspects of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's policies dubbed "Abenomics."

The country's economy trapped in prolonged deflation "has shown signs of turning around," said the white paper on the economy and finances for fiscal 2013 released by the Cabinet Office, adding, "Consumer preference for lower-priced products has been waning."
Deflation pushed down Japan's real gross domestic product by around 8.5 trillion yen for three years from fiscal 2009, as an upturn in real interest rates made companies and households reluctant to take out loans to boost investment, the report said.

Source: NewsonJapan

Caterpillar Q2 results. A Barometer of Global mining industry.

Caterpillar Inc. on Wednesday reported a 43.5 percent drop in quarterly profit and cut its outlook for the year, saying its dealers were still reducing inventories and demand was weak from the mining industry.

The world's largest maker of mining and construction equipment reported second-quarter earnings fell to $960 million, or $1.45 a share, from $1.70 billion, or $2.54 a share, a year earlier. Analysts expected earnings of $1.70 per share.
Caterpillar, which also makes locomotives, gas turbines and diesel engines and generators, said sales fell nearly 16 percent to $14.62 billion.
It expected to report a full-year profit of about $6.50 a share, down from a previous estimate of $7.
The company forecast full-year sales at $56 billion to $58 billion, down from its previous estimate of $57 billion to $61 billion.
The company said the disappointing results, and the reduced forecast, reflected $1 billion in dealer machine inventory reductions during the quarter, as well as a $1.2 billion decline in its own inventories. Together, it said, the actions were "significantly negative to profit."
Analysts and investors have worried that Caterpillar's emphasis in recent years on increasing its penetration in the global mining business may be a short-term problem for results if the slowdown in China reduces incremental demand for mined commodities.
Already, many mining customers have been postponing or canceling orders for its mining equipment and the Peoria-based company has been forced to lay off hundreds of workers at its mining equipment plants in Decatur, Illinois and Milwaukee.

Rising interest rates, meanwhile, have raised concerns the nascent recovery in the construction market, another key area for Caterpillar, could be derailed.
Source  Reuters

China: FDI of Japan,US, and EU increases in H1

Global confidence in China shown by the rapid increase in foreign investment despite its slowed economic growth pace in the first half of 2013 tells that it is  the right time to invest in the world's second largest economy.
Investors from developed countries consider China's adjustment of its economic growth rate a smart move to strengthen capacity for self-sustained growth, which paves the way for healthier economic development in the future.
According to latest official statistics, investment from Japan grew 14.37 percent from January to June and reached 4.687 billion U.S. dollars.
Investment from the United States and the European Union during the same period increased 12.29 percent and 14.68 percent, respectively, to hit 1.825 billion dollars and 4.035 billion dollars.
The numbers prove that China's policy to slow down the pace to improve the quality of growth has successfully won confidence of international investors.
Beijing made the decision after it became clear that the economy suffered from over-capacity and excessive reliance on investment. In addition, an obvious outflow of hot money in the first half of this year has added potential systematic financial risks.
A good runner always knows when to adjust pace in a long race. Similarly, China, under current circumstances, is slowing down its economic growth pace in order to lay a foundation for future development.
Meanwhile, China has worked to expand space for its economic development, such as the conclusion of a free trade agreement with Switzerland and the start of substantive talks with the United States on investment protection. In addition, China has allowed foreign investment in new sectors, providing opportunities for international investors.
Source: Xinhua

Metal Prices

Gold                                                                                              Time GMT   Price     Change   %
Forex Gold Index(am fix) $/ozWed 09:251340.00
+13.25
+1.0
Forex Gold Index(pm fix) $/ozTue 14:001333.50
+6.50
+0.5
Dubai Gold Futures $/ozWed 06:451343.70
+10.20
+0.8
Silver
Silver Index $/ozTue 14:0020.18
+0.23
+1.2
London Metal Exchange
Aluminium Alloy Cash Official Confirmed $/m tonneWed 12:101805.00
+54.50
+3.1
Aluminium Alloy 3mo Official Confirmed $/m tonneWed 12:101825.00
+45.00
+2.5
Primary Aluminium Cash Official Confirmed $/m tonneWed 12:301806.75
+5.50
+0.3
Primary Aluminium 3mo Official Confirmed $/m tonneWed 12:301850.25
+3.75
+0.2
Copper Cash Official Confirmed $/m tonneWed 12:057076.25
+115.75
+1.7
Copper 3mo Official Confirmed $/m tonneWed 12:057097.00
+107.00
+1.5
Lead Cash Official Confirmed $/m tonneWed 12:202062.75
+23.50
+1.2
Lead 3mo Official Confirmed $/m tonneWed 12:202074.00
+26.75
+1.3
N. American Special Alum Alloy Cash Official Confmd $/m tonneWed 12:101877.50
-10.00
-0.5
N. American Special Alum Alloy 3mo Official Confmd $/m tonneWed 12:101892.50
-7.50
-0.4
Nickel Cash Official Confirmed $/m tonneWed 12:3514117.50
+145.00
+1.0
Nickel 3mo Official Confirmed $/m tonneWed 12:3514172.50
+127.50
+0.9
Tin Cash Official Confirmed $/m tonneWed 12:1519602.50
+205.00
+1.1
Tin 3mo Official Confirmed $/m tonneWed 12:1519652.50
+205.00
+1.1
Zinc Cash Official Confirmed $/m tonneWed 12:251862.75
+25.50
+1.4
Zinc 3mo Official Confirmed $/m tonneWed 12:251899.75
+25.50
+1.4

Source:  BBC

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