Thursday, 6 June 2013

Worries about the end of easy money.

FT attributes  the fall of the dollar index today, to the worries of the ending of bond purchases by the Federal Reserve.

 In an article published today by the WSJ, they also explain the jitters of the market.

"The big question worrying investors today is how markets will react when the Federal Reserve starts trimming its stimulus program, something that could happen as soon as this year.
The first time the Fed pared stimulus, in March 2010, the Dow Jones Industrial Average responded with a 14% drop between April and July. The second time the Fed pulled stimulus back, in June 2011, the Dow moved in anticipation, slumping 17% from April into October.
Some analysts think the softness means the Fed will give up on withdrawing stimulus for the foreseeable future. But so far, the Fed is still signaling a desire to start cutting stimulus at some point.

Part of the problem the Fed faces is that it never before has tried to carry out this massive a stimulus program for such a long period. The Fed’s role in markets is, in that sense, greater than ever before, meaning markets are more dependent on the Fed than ever before. Because of that, and because the economy is so fragile, the current period truly is an exceptional one, in some ways more like the 1930s than the 1990s.

Many analysts now are trying to predict the market’s future based on what happened after Fed actions in the past 30 years. A better reference point might be the Depression, or Japan’s two recent lost decades.

Mr. Bernanke’s challenge is to move the Fed back to a more normal role in financial markets and the economy, while avoiding the disastrous errors of 1936 and 1937. One problem he will face is that markets aren’t likely to applaud cutbacks in Fed assistance".

Wilbur Ross : We are now or beyond low and negative real interest rates in the U.S.

Ten-Year Treasury Runs Risk of 25% Decline: Wilbur Ross
June 6 (Bloomberg) -- Wilbur Ross, Chairman and CEO at WL Ross & Co., talks with Betty Liu about what is driving the current employment market, the big risk to the treasury market and his overall economic outlook for the United States. He speaks on Bloomberg Television's "In The Loop."

Watch this video at http://bloomberg.com/share/video/C5DDIK5hR6W3yP~aXOcPwg

Goldman Sachs Higher Mortgage rates won't derail housing recovery

From the WSJ article, excerpts.

“Housing can remain affordable by historical standards even if interest rates rise,” wrote Goldman Sachs economists Hui Shan and Marty Young in a research note this week. They say interest rates, given the recent half-percentage point rise, don’t change their expectation for home prices to rise by 4% to 5% annually over the next few years.
Getty Images
Goldman runs an exercise that shows just how affordable housing is, even if rates rise. They assume the typical homebuyer has an annual household income of $50,000, pays a 20% down payment, and obtains a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage. At an interest rate of 3.8%, the average homebuyer can afford a house worth $279,000, which is 45% above the current median sales price of previously owned homes. Even if interest rates rise to 6%, homes would still be affordable to this median borrower because prices are still so low.
Rising rates “will likely slow the strong house price appreciation observed over the past year, but the impact will likely be modest given the cushion provided by the high level of housing affordability at present,” the Goldman economists write.

Jim Rogers on the correction of the price of gold

Excerpt from FĂ©lix Moreno Interview to Jim Rogers

''FM: You always say in your interviews that you are not a very good market timer, but I beg to differ. I’d like to turn to gold: you are one of the few gold bulls who had actually been calling for a correction in the past few months, or at least saying that we were in a correction and that, even though you were very optimistic in the long term, we should expect lower prices now. You must feel vindicated now.
JR: Every once in a while I get it right. Even I get it right sometimes. Vindicated? I don’t take any great pleasure in it. I just talk about the way the world works. It’s reality. Unfortunately some people don’t like to see how the world works, but yes, I did happen to get it right this time.
FM: So what is your opinion on the current state of the gold bull market. You’ve said repeatedly that you expect it to go much higher this decade. How do you see it right now?
JR: Unfortunately from my point of view, and I own gold and haven’t sold any, we are in a long overdue and much needed correction. The anomaly was that gold had been up 12 years in a row. That’s not normal, typical action. It’s abnormal, which worries me and should worry all the gold bulls. It has now corrected for some 18 to 20 months now. I find that encouraging. I mean, I don’t know, because I’m not a very good market timer, but I do know that most corrections go on long enough to scare a lot of people and scare them out of their positions, and that’s what I would expect to happen.
I’ve had people write to me and say: “gold cannot go down 30%”, and I say: “turn on your computer. It’s there.” There are a lot of mystics that are still true believers. Until it scares a lot of people the correction is not over. I would certainly like the correction to be over this afternoon and see gold go to $2,000 or to $3,000, but that’s not reality''.
Interview published in GoldMoney 30 May 2013

High Grade(AU,AG) Pretium´s Valley of Kings latest drilling results

Pretium Resources  initial underground drilling has been succesful  as part of the Valley of the Kings bulk sample program intersected visible gold, and continues to confirm the projection of high-grade gold mineralized domains. 

Table 1: Valley of the Kings Bulk Sample Drill Results, June 2013 (VU-01 to VU-07)(1,2,3)
Hole
No.
Collar
Coords.
Dip/
Azimuth
From
(meters)
To
(meters)
Interval
(meters)
Gold
(g/t)
Silver
(g/t)
Capping
VU-01(4)6258007N
426599E
-0.3/
180
32.0044.0012.0021.5717.50
incl42.7543.250.50388.00279.00
incl43.5044.000.5099.7050.00
64.0066.002.008.3858.92
incl65.6066.000.4031.1022.10
VU-026258007N
426599E
-10.6/
180
27.0044.5017.5017.2525.071 Au sample cut
or27.0044.5017.5033.2025.07Uncut
incl27.5528.050.50988.00493.00Uncut
incl41.1541.650.50117.5066.10
VU-036258007N
426599E
-22.7/
180
30.0040.0010.003.858.75
incl30.0030.500.5042.3065.50
VU-046258007N
426599E
13.9/
180
29.5038.509.001.446.27
VU-056258007N
426599E
25.7/
180
29.0042.0013.001.656.76
VU-066258007N
426599E
35.0/
180
37.0044.007.003.245.02
incl40.0041.571.5710.649.32
VU-076258007N
426599E
-32.2/
179.5
30.0045.5015.5010.0718.22
incl35.8936.390.50271.00257.00
51.0059.008.0010.8514.44
incl53.9554.450.50140.0057.60
(1)True thickness to be determined.
(2)Unless otherwise indicated as uncut, all gold assays over 421 g/t were cut to 421 g/t.
(3)All samples were submitted for preparation and analysis by ALS Chemex at its facilities in Terrace, B.C. All samples were analyzed using multi-digestion with ICP finish and fire assay with AA finish for gold. Samples over 100 ppm silver were reanalyzed using four acid digestion with an ore grade AA finish. Samples over 1,500 ppm silver were fire assayed with a gravimetric finish. Samples with over 10 ppm gold were fire assayed with a gravimetric finish. One in 20 samples was blank, one in 20 was a standard sample, and differing one in 20 samples was a field duplicate one-quarter split core assayed at ALS Chemex in Vancouver, B.C.
(4)Previously reported.
Kenneth C. McNaughtonM.A.Sc., P.Eng., Chief Exploration Officer, Pretium Resources Inc. is the Qualified Person (QP) responsible for the Brucejack Proje

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