Friday, 11 July 2014

Want(U.S.) energy independence? Keep the nuclear option and limit exports by John Licata

 Whether or not you follow the energy markets, it’s very likely you’ve heard the phrase “U.S. energy independence" at one time or another in recent years. Yet the very notion that the United States can be completely self-sufficient when it comes to supplying our domestic need for energy consumption is seriously flawed for a number of reasons ranging from population growth, pure economics, a lack of public policy and a dated permitting process vital to commercialize new energy projects. Collectively, this should have Americans questioning whether U.S. power production can be enough to completely eliminate the need for foreign energy sources.

The biggest use for energy is electricity. Using 2013 data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), in order to produce electricity in the United States, we used a total of 4,058,209 thousand megawatt-hours last year of which 39 percent was supplied from coal, 27 percent from natural gas, 19 percent came from nuclear, 7 percent from hydropower, 6 percent from other renewables, 1 percent from petroleum and less than 1 percent from other gases. So, despite the Obama administration’s efforts to help fight carbon emissions, coal still dominates in the United States. In fact, according to a recent EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the allure of cheaper coal has actually fostered its greater use to offset an increase in natural gas prices.

Coal, of course, releases an enormous amount of carbon dioxide when it’s burned.

On the one hand, we’re boosting our independence by using our own coal supply to produce electricity, but on the other, the whole environmental argument may be being shoved under the rug because of it. This suggests the United States can’t be energy independent and simultaneously win the war on carbon. Something has to give. We don’t have enough clean domestic energy supply to produce electricity if we abandon domestic coal and simultaneously close perfectly good nuclear plants. Instead, we need more nuclear power since its use won’t add to carbon emission output.

Here’s the problem. The United States consumes 55 million pounds of uranium per year, yet only produces 4 million pounds. The rest comes from places such as Kazakhstan and Australia. We already import 93 percent of our enriched uranium, so in reality, our reliance on foreign enriched uranium is far greater than our dependence on foreign oil.

Another issue weighing on energy independence is a growing U.S. population. During the recent economic recession, population growth slowed, according to the U.S. census bureau. The reason often cited is that a large number of people felt financially insecure, causing them to reconsider starting families. Considering the Federal Reserve is now a bit more optimistic about U.S. job market, it’s not unreasonable to think fertility rates may once again be on the rise. Bottom line: More people means more future energy demand that the U.S. will be challenged to satisfy.

Then there’s the hydraulic fracturing (fracking) boom. The technique, which involves pumping a mixture of water and chemicals into shale deposits at high pressures, has given the United States access to vast new oil and natural gas supplies.

But instead of using more of that new-found energy booty here at home, politicians believe we should export excess supplies. The problem here is that the shale movement was supposed to be by Americans for Americans. So why not first run domestic refiners at full capacity and store the extra oil? Consider this: As of June 20, 2014, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), the nation’s piggybank for oil, contained 691 million barrels. Capacity for the SPR is 727 million barrels so isn’t talk of exporting our oil premature since we could keep gasoline prices low and further lessen our dependence on foreign oil during any crisis by tapping a full SPR right here at home?

As for natural gas, if it’s seen as the ultimate catalyst for energy independence, why would we export it when more Americans are using it to heat and power their homes? Additionally, there are those, including legendary energy man T. Boone Pickens, who believe we should tap excess natural gas to fuel the trucking sector. If we can use more natural gas here at home, we could further decrease our reliance on foreign energy. However, if the United States now uses our excess natural gas for exports or as a political weapon to weaken Russia’s position over Ukraine and Europe, we risk delaying our own goal of becoming energy independent.

Moving to renewables. I’m a big a believer in the future of geothermal, solar and wind power. However, geothermal is still being researched, the sun doesn’t always shine and wind doesn’t always blow. Costs are being driven down to make renewables more competitive with fossil fuels, but mainstream energy storage solutions are still needed to make renewables, which only account for 10 percent of our current energy mix, play a bigger role in helping the United States become more energy independent.

At the end of the day, the United States can’t be energy independent without a true national energy policy. We need to seriously rethink exporting natural gas and closing nuclear plants at a time where sustainability meets reality head on. Our newly found oil and gas supplies need to help Americans before they help the rest of the world. Therefore politicians should be pushing for innovation here at home to lower energy prices, not create an environment where our supposed energy independence creates even more dependence on foreign energy.
Source: Reuters

U.S. CRUDE OIL FUTURES SETTLE AT $100.83/BBL, DOWN $2.10, 2.04 PCT

U.S. CRUDE OIL FUTURES SETTLE AT $100.83/BBL, DOWN $2.10, 2.04 PCT
Fri, 11 Jul 18:30:00 GMT
U.S. CRUDE OIL FUTURES SETTLE AT $100.83/BBL, DOWN $2.10, 2.04 PCT

Source: Reuters

WSJ: Goldman Sachs on Oil Companies’ $700 Billion Problem

"Oil companies like nothing more than spending big money drilling for new resources around the world. Unfortunately, more and more of that activity is looking like it might prove redundant.
Indeed, Goldman Sachs's  head of European energy research Michele della Vigna reckons around $700 billion’s worth of capital spending in the pipeline may no longer be needed. The reason? Yet another side effect of the shale revolution in the U.S. 
Goldman estimates that the big discoveries of shale oil in recent years have added around 66 billion barrels of crude oil resources; at its peak, that could add 8 million barrels per day to daily output.
That extra production should prove enough to meet oil demand growth in the coming years, Goldman thinks. In the jargon, it means shale oil provides the oil market with its marginal supply.
In turn, it means that any oil investments that are more costly than shale developments won’t be needed. Indeed any new projects that require oil prices to be above $80-85 per barrel to break even ought to be delayed or canceled. That could include big investments being considered in Canadian heavy oil, or in deep waters off shore.
Mr. della Vigna reckons this also potentially bad news for the oil service companies that make money helping oil companies with their big projects. As for the winners – those are likely to be companies with best roster of low-cost investments: Goldman’s top picks include BG Group, Sinopec, Santos and Afren".
Source: WSJ

  Should the reasoning be only one way? What if investments in
the shale industry turn redundant,in reality they are the marginal
supply. The boom and bust story of commodities,tells us much about how this boom is so dependant on the prices of oil and gas.
   With lower prices marginal projects go bust.

Energy prices are tumbling

        The WSJ reports,"energy prices are tumbling, a setback for investors who were betting that supply shortfalls would drive markets higher.
Natural-gas futures hit a six-month low on Thursday. U.S. oil futures ended slightly higher, snapping a nine-session losing streak, the longest since December 2009.
It is a sharp turnaround for both markets, where investors until recently were overwhelmingly bullish, and a welcome relief for consumers, who had watched gasoline climb steadily for much of this year.
     A frigid winter had depleted natural-gas inventories, raising questions about whether producers could replace those stockpiles before temperatures drop again. Escalating violence in Iraq had some money managers worried that fighting would disrupt the country's oil exports.
The steady rise of North American oil-and-gas production has diminished those threats, calming energy markets to a degree that investors and analysts say would have been hard to imagine even five years ago. U.S. gas producers are refilling storage at a record pace, including a bigger-than-expected increase to inventories in government data released Thursday. Iraqi oil shipments have continued unimpeded.
Falling oil prices should help keep a lid on gasoline prices in coming weeks, while the declines in natural gas could mean lower heating bills this winter, a boon to U.S. consumers who still are struggling with sluggish wage growth.
A gallon of regular gasoline cost an average of $3.64 on Thursday, up from $3.50 a year ago but down from $3.67 in early July, the second-highest level ever for Independence Day weekend, according to AAA.
But the prospect of ample energy supplies is disappointing investors who expected rallies staged earlier in the year to last longer. Commodities as tracked by major indexes, which are heavy on oil and gas, performed better than stocks and bonds in the first half of the year.
Natural gas for August delivery ended at $4.12 a million British thermal units on the New York Mercantile Exchange, a 14% drop since June 12. U.S. oil futures ended up 0.6% at $102.93 a barrel, narrowly avoiding their longest losing streak since 1984.
Booming domestic production has helped stabilize energy markets because it would take a bigger disruption in supplies elsewhere to create a shortage and cause prices to spike".

Demand from U.S. automakers could boost aluminium price -Japan industry body

 Prices for aluminium could climb around a third to as high as $2,500 per tonne if more U.S. automakers start producing vehicles made from the metal, said the new head of Japan's aluminium industry body.

Ford Motor plans to launch a new aluminium-intensive truck this year, with speculation that other carmakers could start using more of the metal, which is lighter than steel and helps make vehicles more fuel-efficient.

"If automakers follow Ford's step to use more aluminium, supply of the metal will become short and prices could rise as high as around $2,500 per tonne," Takashi Ishiyama, chairman of the Japan Aluminium Association, said on Thursday.

He said that association members such as producers of rolled aluminium would be able to pass on a gradual increase in prices to their customers, and that they would welcome the chance to use current inventory to make products they could sell at higher prices.

London Metal Exchange aluminium prices , which hit a 13-month high earlier this week, stood around $1,900 per tonne on Friday.

Ishiyama said that Ford would need supply from the equivalent of a whole smelting plant to churn out its new F-150 trucks, providing a big new source of demand.

He added that some Japanese aluminium product makers such as top manufacturer UACJ Corp <5741.T> were aiming to win a bigger slice of the growing U.S. market by adding production facilities there.

But Ishiyama, also the president of Nippon Light Metal Holdings Co Ltd <5703.T>, said Japanese automakers had been trying to improve car efficiency through technological advances rather than shifting to aluminium vehicles.

"However, we have a long-term goal to aim to boost aluminium demand in Japan to 650,000 tonnes a year by 2035 from 400,000 tonnes now by widening the metal uses to new areas including automobiles," Ishiyama said.


Source: Reuters

Gold hedging back on agenda, with strict conditions attached

The gold mining industry is increasing its net hedged position for the first time since 2011 after a plunge in gold prices worried creditors, but a return to selling forward masses of bullion is a distant prospect.

At its peak in 1999, the volume of the gold hedges - future output sold forward to guarantee revenue streams - reached more than 3,000 tonnes. By the end of last year, that outstanding hedge book had dwindled to just 78 tonnes.

Last week GFMS analysts at Thomson Reuters predicted a return to net hedging this year after a 9 tonne rise in outstanding hedges in the first quarter, as miners' hedging outweigh their de-hedging.

Russia's Polyus Gold recently put in place the biggest hedge seen in the gold market in years. [ID:nL6N0PE1VA]

But while the idea of hedging a small amount of production for a limited period is gaining some support, the change in trend comes with stiff conditions.

"When companies do it, they have to do it for some pretty good reasons, and it has to be case-specific," Scott Winship, portfolio manager at Investec Asset Management, said.

"For, say, a single miner bringing a mine into production, which is typically a very high risk period of time for a company, it is prudent to hedge some production. But we're talking about 10 to 20 percent for a fairly short period of time."

Hedging is designed to guarantee revenue streams by protecting mining companies from falling prices. Some lenders require companies to provide a certain level of price protection before they agree to fund new projects.

The limitations of hedging were starkly illustrated in the last decade's gold price rally, however, with big miners such as Barrick Gold and AngloGold Ashanti spending billions of dollars to close hedges that were preventing them from capitalising on the bull run.

The rally ended dramatically last year with a 28 percent slide. In the current environment, smaller producers using short-term, flexible structures on individual projects can satisfy their creditors while not turning off their investors.

"Gold companies need to prove to investors that they can manage their balance sheets," Clive Burstow, investment manager at Baring Global Resources, said. "If used prudently and wisely, hedging is a very good tool for miners to use. Junior miners can use hedging when developing an individual mine, for instance."


MEANS TO AN END

That's not to say that the industry is embracing hedging wholeheartedly.

Randgold Chief Executive Mark Bristow said while he is happy to use small hedges as a means to, for example, secure cheaper financing, it's a measure that should be used sparingly.

"We have never been anti-hedging. We will hedge - but we hedge projects, capital, and we hedge end of mines for closures," he said. "So we will hedge, but right now hedging production for the sake of just trying to survive doesn't make sense at all to me.

"It's all about cost of capital. If we can secure financing at a better price, we put a hedge on."

For fund managers, a mining company hedging a larger proportion of production would undermine its appeal as an investment. Gold mining companies are often bought as a proxy for the underlying asset price.

"As investors, we don't want to invest in a processing mining company that has a very steady margin because it's hedged," Angelos Damaskos of Sector Investment Managers said.

"An investor in a gold miner is much more opportunistic and much more ambitious about the prospects for gold."

In the absence of immediate balance sheet pressures, a decision on whether to hedge is effectively taking that investment rationale out of the equation for investors who believe gold is likely to rise.

Last year's price crash bottomed out at $1,180 an ounce, and the metal is currently up 10 percent on this year, cheering some gold bulls who predict that instability in the global financial sector and buying by Asian consumers will push prices higher.

Others say, however, that gold prices could have much further to fall as U.S. monetary policy normalises and interest rates rise across the globe, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.

Faced with this uncertainty, neither mining companies nor investors want to take the risk of missing out on what could be a market with plenty of upside.

"The nature of these markets is that when prices are high, people are even more bullish and expect the price to go to $3,000," Investec's Winship said.

"It's a very difficult position to take for a company, and generally I think people are going to steer fairly clear."

Copper eases on rising inventory

 Copper dipped on Friday as investors eyed rising warehouse stocks and reassessed whether the metal, already trading near 4-1/2 month highs, was likely to extend gains, especially as it is due to move into surplus at some point this year.

Copper inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses rose 3.8 percent from last Friday to 84,453 tonnes, their highest in about a month , data out earlier showed. London Metal Exchange copper stocks rose 375 tonnes to 158,475 tonnes, near their highest since mid June .

Overall though, LME stocks are near their lowest in nearly six years.

"The key question is whether the turnaround in inventories is the beginning of a new uptrend. Our best guess is we may be seeing the beginning of a longer term shift," said Nic Brown, head of commodities research at Natixis.

"We think the copper market is heading for a period of surplus, stocks are going to accumulate in warehouses and we're going to see another (price) downleg between now and the beginning of next year."

Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange traded 0.6 percent lower at $7,116.25 at 1416 GMT, drifting below a 4-1/2 month high of $7,212 reached earlier this week.

Signs of global economic recovery have gathered pace following last week's strong U.S. jobs data and factory numbers from China that reinforced expectations of a pickup in demand for industrial metals.

But risks abound in Europe's banking sector, even if investors have been temporarily reassured that problems at Portugal's biggest listed bank are unlikely to engulf the wider EU banking sector. [.EU]

In addition, Thursday's data from China, the world's biggest copper consumer, showed its trade performance improved in June but missed market forecasts, suggesting Beijing will have to unveil more stimulus measures to stabilise the economy.

"We are now seeing signs of seasonal slowing down in key metals consuming sectors. The market might take a breather for a while," said Andrew Shaw, head of base metals research at Credit Suisse in Singapore.

China's copper imports fell in June to their lowest since April 2013 as banks reduced lending for metals imports following a probe into alleged fraudulent metals financing at Qingdao port.

In industry news, Standard Bank Plc said it has a total exposure related to China's Qingdao port of about $170 million worth of aluminium, and has started legal proceedings in Shandong province to protect its position.

Prices for aluminium could climb around a third to as high as $2,500 per tonne if more U.S. automakers start producing vehicles made from the metal, said the new head of Japan's aluminium industry body.

Aluminium rose 0.2 percent to $1,928 a tonne.


Source: Reuters

Wells Fargo's Profit Edges Up Despite Lower Revenue

Wells Fargo  & Co. on Friday posted a 3.8% rise in net income, but shares edged down in early morning trading as a key measure of lending profitability declined and the bank's cost-cutting progress stalled.
Wells Fargo reported net income of $5.73 billion, compared with $5.52 billion a year earlier. Per-share earnings, reflecting the payment of preferred dividends, were $1.01 versus 98 cents a year earlier. Revenue slipped 1.5% to $21.07 billion. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expected per-share earnings of $1.01 on revenue of $20.84 billion.
While analysts have cut estimates on rival banks in recent weeks, estimates for Wells Fargo have held steady. Never a big trading firm, Wells Fargo has focused on generating revenue from its bread-and-butter businesses of commercial and consumer lending as rivals pulled away from some of those businesses after the financial crisis.
But Wells Fargo's net interest margin—a key profitability figure that measures the difference between what a bank makes on lending and what it pays depositors—narrowed to 3.15%, compared with 3.40% a year earlier and 3.20% in the prior quarter.
"They can't seem to get the net interest margin decreases to level off even as interest rates have been flat over past year. They need some light at the end of the tunnel on that one," said Erik Oja, analyst at S&P Capital IQ.
The San Francisco company has become a stock-market darling among bank investors, in part because it has avoided big losses and the worst of the regulatory penalties plaguing the industry. Investors have also valued the firm's consistency, making it the largest U.S. bank by market capitalization.
In the second quarter, Wells Fargo eked out a profit to generate its 16th quarter of year-over-year profit growth, based on data from FactSet. Investors were unimpressed however, as Wells Fargo's bottom line was again padded by equity gains, while the bank's expenses climbed from the first quarter.
Source: WSJ

Oil slips towards $108, heading for 3rd weekly loss

Oil headed for its third straight weekly loss on Friday as worries about supply losses in the Middle East and North Africa eased, pushing North Sea Brent crude below $108 a barrel.

Brent hit a nine-month high above $115 a barrel in June as a Sunni Islamist insurgency swept across northwestern Iraq, taking control of large parts of the oil producing country and shutting down its largest refinery.

Oil has weakened over the last month but the market remains nervous about further supply shocks. The International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Friday that oil output remained at risk in several key producing regions.

"Supply risks in the Middle East and North Africa, not least in Iraq and Libya, remain extraordinarily high," the IEA said in its monthly Oil Market Report. "Oil prices remain historically high and there is no sign of a turning of the tide just yet."

"Whether in crude or product markets, there is little room for complacency," it added.

Brent was down $1.21 at $107.46 a barrel by 1330 GMT on Friday, after touching a session low of $107.35.

The U.S. benchmark crude fell $1.07 cents to $101.86.

Brent was heading for a loss of around 2.7 percent for the week, while U.S. crude futures were down around 1.8 percent.

Despite the turmoil in Iraq and Libya, oil markets in many consuming centres now have ample supply. This has helped weaken the front of the Brent futures market, with the two front months at a discount to forward contracts.

"Libyan oil production is already on the rise, and this is reflected in the structure of the Brent market," said Tamas Varga, oil analyst at London brokerage PVM Oil Associates.

Libya's southern El Sharara field is boosting production and has pushed the country's oil output to 350,000 barrels per day, a spokesman for National Oil Corp said on Thursday.

The increase in Libyan supply could drive Brent down to around $107 a barrel for September contracts, according to Andy Sommers, an analyst at EGL in Dietikon, Switzerland.

"We see the market as very close to fair value right now," Sommers said.

Analysts say, however, that it would take months to ramp up production and more unrest is possible.

In Iraq, oil exports from the southern Basra ports continue, despite fighting in the north but the situation in the country is fluid, analysts say.

Kurdish peshmerga forces took over production facilities at the two northern Iraqi oilfields Bai Hassan and Kirkuk on Friday, replacing Arab workers with Kurdish personnel. 


Source: Reuters

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