Sunday, 30 June 2013

China: Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region,the New Economic Inland Pilot Zone

The Chinese government has recently approved the establishment of a new economic inland pilot zone in the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region and a comprehensive bonded area in Yinchuan, according to Vice Premier Li Keqiang on Wednesday.
The pilot zone and bonded area aim to stimulate the country's domestic demand and to broaden the opening-up of China's western inland area, Li said in his speech
"While further opening coastal regions to the east, China will also boost its opening to the west at the same time, and special economic zones, pilot zones and key border ports are being established to serve as vanguard," he said.
Their establishment also demonstrates China's policies of developing the west and opening the west, and will help expand the country's opening-up range to developed countries as well as developing countries, according to Li.
"China continues to expand market scale and improve its industrial system to provide more cooperation opportunities for China and other countries as well as opportunities for the world's development," the vice premier said.

Source:Xinhua

Martin Feldstein. Why easy money didn't ment high inflation,but that Experience doesn´t exclude higher inflation in a longer term

"Why has quantitative easing coexisted with price stability in the United States? Or, as I often hear, “Why has the Federal Reserve’s printing of so much money not caused higher inflation?” Martin Feldstein
 I
nflation has certainly been very low. During the past five years, the CPI has increased at an annual rate of just 1.5%.
  By constrat,the Fed bought more than $2 trillion of Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities, nearly ten times the annual rate of bond purchases during the previous decade. In 2012 the stock of bonds on the Fed’s balance sheet has risen more than 20%.

 From the experiences in Germany hyperinflation in the 1920's and in Latin America in the 1980's(e.g. Bolivia and PerĂº) it shows that rapid monetary growth does fuel inflation.
  Even America's own experience shows that even with a more moderate increase in money growth it has 
ended in high inflation rates."In the 1970’s, US money supply grew at an average annual rate of 9.6%, the highest rate in the previous half-century; inflation averaged 7.4%, also a half-century high. In the 1990’s, annual monetary growth averaged only 3.9%, and the average inflation rate was just 2.9%
That is why the absence of any inflationary response to the Fed’s massive bond purchases in the past five years seems so puzzling. But the puzzle disappears when we recognize that quantitative easing is not the same thing as “printing money” or, more accurately, increasing the stock of money'' says Feldstein.
Because since 2008 the Fed started to pay interest rates on excess banks reserves.This policy induced the banks
to keep and maintain this excess reserves in safe and liquid deposits,and didn´t lead after 2008 to a much larger deposit growth and much larger stock of money.
So, while M2 grew by more than 6% from 2008 to 2012, nominal GDP grew by just 3.5% and the GDP price index rose by only 1.7%.
So it is not surprising that inflation has remained lower, than in any decade since the end of World War II. And it is also not surprising that QE has done so little to increase nominal spending and real economic activity.

The absence of significant inflation in the past few years does not mean that it won’t rise in the future. When businesses and households eventually increase their demand for loans, commercial banks that have adequate capital can meet that demand with new lending without running into the limits that might otherwise result from inadequate reserves. The resulting growth of spending by businesses and households might be welcome at first, but it could soon become a source of unwanted inflation.
The Fed could, in principle, limit inflationary lending by raising the interest rates.
But the Fed may hesitate to act, or may act with insufficient force, owing to its dual mandate to focus on employment as well as price stability. Or because it gets more broadly thought that for the purpose of higher growth Central Banks can raise their inflation targets as U.K. and Japan are doing now.

 The growing concern is that the Fed will hesitate if the rate of unemployment remains high even as  the inflation rate rises.

   So investors are right to think that inflation could be higher in a more longer term, even as it has not
happened in times of throwing money from a helicopter.


Japan's Core Consumer Price Flat in May

Japan's core consumer prices were flat in May from a year before, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications said Friday.
The result matched the median forecast among 24 economic research institutes polled by Jiji Press.The core consumer price index, which excludes fresh food prices, stood at 100.0 against 100 for the base year of 2010, the ministry said. Compared with April, the index was up 0.2 pct.

Breaking Bad Habits, Better Now than Later

As Stephen Roach says "It was never going to be easy, but central banks in the world’s two largest economies – the United States and China – finally appear to be embarking on a path to policy normalization". Addicted to an open-ended strain of extreme monetary accommodation, that was established in the depths of the crisis of 2008-2009,as recent developments have shown the return by US and China Central Banks to less expansionary monetary policies,financial markets are now gasping for breath
The Fed and the Central Bank of China are on the same path, but for very different reasons. For the Fed there seems to be a sense that the emergency scenario where  unorthodow monetary policies in special circumstances was appropriate,today given the latest economic indicators of the U.S, it is not anymore. China instead    is attempting to ensure stability by reducing the excess credit leverage that has long supported the real side of an increasingly credit-dependent Chinese economy.

Both actions are correct and long delayed. While the Fed’s first round of quantitative easing helped to end the financial market turmoil that occurred in the years 2008-2009, two subsequent rounds  QE2 and QE3 ,  have done little to alleviate the lingering pressure on over-extended American consumers. Indeed, household debt is still in excess of 110% of disposable personal income and the personal saving rate remains below 3%, averages that compare unfavorably with the 75% and 7.9% norms that prevailed, respectively, in the final three decades of last century.

  Real consumer demand has remained stuck on an anemic 0.9% annualized growth trajectory since early 2008, keeping the US economy mired in a decidedly subpar recovery. Unable to facilitate balance-sheet repair or stimulate real economic activity, Quantitative Easing, instead, has become a dangerous source of instability in global financial markets.
 The recent spasms in financial markets leave little doubt about the growing dangers of speculative excesses that had been building. Fortunately, the Fed is finally facing up to the downside of its grandiose experiment.Recent developments in China in terms of less growth in GDP and less expansive monetary policies have equally powerful implications. There, credit tightening does not follow only from  independent central bank; rather, it reflects an important shift in the basic thrust of 
the state’s economic policies. China’s new leadership, headed by Premier Li Keqiang, seems determined to end past targets of rapid pace of economic growth and to refocus policy on the quality of growth,diminishing 
inequalities in the chinese economy(See Past Posts in this Blog)
 "Financial markets are having a hard time coming to grips with the new policy mindset in the world’s two largest economies. At the same time, investors have raised serious and legitimate questions about Japan’s economic-policy regime under Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, which unfortunately relies on quantitative easing and yen depreciation rather, than on a new structural-reform agenda.
As financial markets come to terms with the normalization of monetary policy in the US and China, while facing up to the shortcomings of the BOJ’s efforts, the real side of the global economy is less at risk than are asset prices. In large part, that is because unconventional monetary policies were never the miracle drug that they were supposed to be. They added bubbles to financial markets but did next to nothing to foster vigorous recovery and redress deep-rooted problems in the real economy''says Roach.

 
Breaking bad habits, is hardly a painless experience given the price distortions that easy money creates. "But better now than later, when excesses in asset prices and credit markets would create new and dangerous distortions on the real side of the global economy. That is exactly what pushed the world to the edge in 2008-2009, and there is no reason why it could not happen again"says Roach

List of Countries by GDP Year 2012 Part I

                                                              Nominal GDP                         Year
           Country/Region                         Million of  US$                        2012

           World                                           71,707,302
            European Union                          16,584,007
            USA                                             15,684,750
            China                                             8,227,037
            Japan                                             5,963,969
            Germany                                       3,400,579
            France                                           2,608,699
            United Kingdom                            2,440,505
            Brazil                                             2,395,968
            Russia                                            2,021,960
            Italy                                               2,014,079
            India                                              1,824,832
            Canada                                          1,819,081
            Australia                                        1,541,797
            Spain                                              1,352,057
            Mexico                                           1,177,116
            South Korea                                   1,155,872
           
            Source:  FMI
           
    

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