Sunday, 16 March 2014
China Plans to Spend Over $163 Billion Redeveloping Shantytowns
"China will invest more than 1 trillion yuan ($163 billion) redeveloping shantytowns this year as the government promotes urbanization as an engine of growth", according to state broadcaster China Central Television.
"The nation will redevelop shantytowns involving more than 4.75 million households this year, CCTV reported yesterday, citing the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development. China will promote fiscal and financial reforms that support urbanization", it said, citing a plan for 2014 to 2020 issued by the Communist Party of China and State Council.
Chinese leaders have pledged to speed up urbanization as they seek to shift the world’s second-largest economy toward a growth model that relies on domestic consumption rather than investment and exports. Premier Li Keqiang said March 13 the government will increase its efforts to solve people’s basic housing needs.
Urbanization is a “strong engine” for sustainable and healthy economic development, according to the text of the plan released yesterday by the official Xinhua News Agency. Li said March 13 that tens of millions of people still live in shantytowns, which Xinhua has defined as areas of dilapidated housing where poor factory workers often live.
Source: CCTV
Rout Seen Worsening as ETF Shorts Grow: Russia Overnight
Wagers that the Market Vectors Russia exchange-traded fund will decline in New York trading reached a 22-month high after the Micex Index (INDEXCF) fell 7.6 percent in Moscow last week, extending its rout this month to 14 percent. Open interest on put options giving investors the right to sell the ETF reached about 283,000 on March 13, almost double the four-week average and up from a 2014 low of 54,000 in January, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
The U.S. and the European Union are threatening sanctions if Russia doesn’t back down from annexing Crimea, where preliminary results show people voted yesterday to rejoin their former Soviet master two weeks after PresidentVladimir Putin dispatched troops to take control of the region. Stock trading volumes have soared as tensions escalated. Trading on the Moscow Exchange reached a record last week, while 27.5 million of the most-traded Russian shares changed hands each day in New York this month, 2.4 times the norm over the past year.
The Bloomberg Russia-US Equity Index of the most-traded Russian stocks in the U.S. and the Market Vectors Russia (RSX) ETF, the biggest U.S. exchange-traded fund that holds Russian shares, both sank for a fourth straight week. The Bloomberg Russia gauge declined 5 percent to 78.52 in the five days to March 14 and the Market Vectors fell 5.5 percent to $21.81. The Micex gauge has slumped 21 percent from a January 2013 high.
Global investors poured money in Russian equity funds for a second week as of March 12, injecting $133.2 million and ending 11 weeks of declines, according to EPFR Global data. Inflows rose after Russian forces took Crimea under control, the data show. ETFs accounted “for the bulk of the inflows,” pointing to short interest, Cameron Brandt, the director of research for Cambridge, Massachusetts-based EPFR Global, said March 14.
A short sale is one in which stock is borrowed and sold, with the hope of profit by repurchasing the shares later at a lower price. Year-to-date, outflows from Russia Equity Funds totaled $702 million, the worst start to a year since EPFR Global began tracking them in 1996, Brandt said by e-mail.
The Moscow Exchange said daily trading volumes in equities rose to a record-high 72 billion rubles ($2 billion) in the first two weeks of March, compared with an average of 35 billion for 2013, data compiled by the exchange show.
American depositary receipts of OAO Gazprom, Russia’s biggest company, dropped 12 percent in New York this month to $6.72 and traded at 2.6 times estimated earnings, the cheapest level among global peers.
Source: BloombergView
Commodities Cushioned From Crimea Crisis by Ample Supply
"Unprecedented natural-gas reserves in Europe, record global grain output and the threat of mutual economic calamity from oil sanctions are cushioning commodity prices even as the Ukraine-Russia conflict spurs a gold rally".
"While U.K. gas prices, a European benchmark, rose 5.1 percent since the crisis began at the end of February, they are still the lowest for this time of year since 2010. Brent crude fell 0.5 percent. After wheat advanced 14 percent and corn 4.9 percent, both are still at least 26 percent below the peaks in 2010, the last time Russia and Ukraine curbed shipments. Gold reached a six-month high on March 14 as demand for a haven grew".
"Abundant supply is limiting some price swings caused by Russia’s incursion into Crimea, where a majority in a disputed vote March 16 chose to join Russia, exit polls showed. Europe gets about a third of its gas from Russia, half of it through Ukraine, and about the same proportion of crude. Russia’s economy has slowed for three consecutive years, increasing its reliance on the export revenue. Sanction talks in Europe have focused on asset freezes and visa bans rather than energy.
“This is basically a hydrocarbon version of Mutually Assured Destruction,” said Seth Kleinman, Citigroup Inc.’s London-based head of energy research. “Europe needs Russian energy, and Russia needs Europe’s money.”
Supplies of Russian gas transiting through Ukraine into Europe were interrupted in 2006 and 2009 because of disputes over prices and terms of supply. On both occasions, temperatures were freezing. Europe is now having its mildest winter since 2007, and stockpiles were about 45 percent full on March 13, up from 34 percent a year earlier, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe, the Brussels-based lobby group".
Source: Bloomberg TV
Chinese investors eye buying Athens International Airport
"Two Chinese companies have sent a letter to Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras that expresses their interest in jointly acquiring a 55% stake in Athens International Airport. The Chinese companies stated that they would use their own funds to turn Greece's main air terminal into an international transit hub and as an entry point for Chinese travelers to other European countries".
"The Greek government has announced a wide ranging privatization program that includes rail and road transportation, airports and ports, utilities, gaming and public real estate holdings. The program aims to help the debt laden country restructure its economy.
Chinese investors are among those attracted by the Greek offers. Friedmann Pacific Asset Management and Shenzhen Airport Group Company have announced interest in becoming the principle shareholders of Athens International Airport".
However, the main Greek airport hasn't entered a tender process yet. That's according to Notis Mitarachi, Vice Minister for Development and Competitiveness.
"We have not yet announced an official tender process. Therefore, the interest that has been expressed up to now is just an expression of interest. We have seen interest from China for the airports of Greece. Both the regional and the main airport, and also we see interest from Chinese individuals," Mitarachi said.
Meanwhile, bureaucracy is a major problem says Ioannis Theofanopoulos, a member of the Hellenic-Chinese Chamber and former Greek Ambassador to China.
"I believe this period and the next three years are very positive for investment in Greece. The only thing that we have to pay attention to is to fight all the bureaucratic complications. We are very famous for this. There are many questions with no immediate answers," he said.
The Chinese intend to turn "Eleftherios Venizelos" into a transportation hub for both passengers and their representatives. The Chinese consortium wishes to create a gateway to Europe from Asia. The Athens International Airport seems to be the best choice since it offers opportunities for growth and expansion.
Athens is the 35th busiest airport in Europe with just over 12.5 million passengers each year.
Source:CCTV
US threatens 'serious' steps against Russia The Battle of Words
Kerry Statement
"If there is no sign of any capacity to be able to move forward and resolve this issue, there will be a very serious series of steps on Monday in Europe and here with respect the options that are available to us," Kerry said at a Senate panel hearing on his agency's budget for fiscal year 2015".
"Now our choice is not to be put in the position of having to do that," he added. "Our choice is to have a respect for the sovereignty and independence and integrity of the country of Ukraine. Our hope is to have Russia join in respecting international law."
"Russian parliament leaders have said that Russia would respect the choice made in Crimea's plebiscite, while Washington and its European allies have rejected the upcoming vote as running contrary to the international law and Ukraine's constitution".
"I don't think there's much doubt, given the circumstances, what the vote is going to be," Kerry said. "Nobody doubts that. So this is not a question mark."
"The question mark is, is Russia prepared to find a way to negotiate with Ukraine, with the contact group, with the other countries involved in order to be able to resolve this in a way that respects their legitimate interests, and they have legitimate interests, but respects them in a way that doesn't violate international law and isn't at the butt of a rifle and of massive military imprint?" he added.
Source: ChinadailyUSA
China: Jan, Feb figures show chill in economy
The rapid deceleration of China's economic growth indicators in the year's first two months shocked the market, as industrial output, fixed-asset investment and retail sales all dropped to unusual lows.
Speculation has been widespread among experts that economic policy may be eased if the downward pressure continues to threaten the government's GDP target of about 7.5 percent this year.
The National Bureau of Statistics said Thursday that year-on-year industrial output growth rate slowed to 8.6 percent in January and February, down from 9.7 percent in December and 10 percent in November. It fell to its lowest level since May 2009.
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Growth of overall fixed-asset investment, which is seen as the strongest driver of the world's second-largest economy, dropped to 17.7 percent during the first two months, compared with whole-year growth of 19.6 percent in 2013 and 18.2 percent in the fourth quarter. It reached a 13-year low for those same months.
In the meantime, total retail sales increased by 11.8 percent, an easing from 13.6 in December and 13.7 in November, and was the slowest pace for the period since 2004.
The above figures, combined with earlier released sluggish data of exports and manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index, indicate that the whole economy may even slip below 7.5 percent for the first quarter, according to economists.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index retreated 0.67 percent at the close after rising as much as 0.6 percent earlier in the day. The Shanghai Composite Index pared gains after the reports and it closed 1.1 percent higher.
Bank of America Merrill Lynch lowered its forecast of China's first-quarter GDP growth to 7.3 percent from 8 percent after the reports.
The Ministry of Finance announced on the same day that in January and February, the nation's total fiscal income advanced by 11.1 percent, slower than 14.3 percent in December and 15.9 percent in November.
Xu Hongcai, a senior economist at China Center for International Economic Exchanges, a government think tank, called the economic performance in the first two months "unusual but acceptable".
"It shows that the economy will face many uncertainties this year, and policymakers should leave room for unexpected situations," Xu said.
Source: ChinaDaily USA
China now has half a billion mobile web users, 618 million total internet users II
Here is the graph for mobile web:
China now has half a billion mobile web users, 618 million total internet users I
China now has 618 million internet users and 500 million mobile web users, according to new figures today from the China Internet Network Information Center (CNNIC). The new numbers from CNNIC are for December 2013. They show strong growth from the agency’s last report midway through 2013 when we saw that China had 591 million internet users and 460 million mobile netizens. The number of mobile web users has more than doubled from the end of 2009 when there were only 233 million accessing the web via phones. China’s smartphone boom – there are about 270 million active Android users in the country right now – has surely caused a big bump in mobile web browsing in the past few years. This is the graph for total web users. The precise figure for the end of 2013 is 617.58 million:
This is the graph for web users:
Less than 10% of Chinese Mobile Gamers Contributed 80% of the Total Profits in 2013: TalkingData Report
We all saw smart device-based mobile gaming exploding in popularity in China last year. TalkingData, a Chinese mobile data analytics service, concludes that causes include 1) smartphone makers, such as Xiaomi, Huawei, and Lenovo, launched various low-cost Android phones during the year, 2) those low-priced Android phones are able to run sophisticated mobile games.
TalkingData detected that 96% of 550 million active smart mobile devices have at least one mobile game installed as of the fourth quarter of 2013. It’s thanks to, according to TalkingData, the fact that mobile game developers use all kinds of distribution channels, numerous Android app stores in China, telecom operators, pre-installs in mobile devices, WeChat, and so on that users can hardly avoid them. But the number isn’t that surprising as a majority of Android phones in China have games pre-installed before being sold to users or even before being shipped.
A cumulative 9.76% of total gamers became paying users in 2013, which is 2.5 times greater than that at the beginning of the year, that contributed roughly 80% of the total profits in China market. The absolute number of paying users increased by more than 5 times.
As of the fourth quarter of 2013, revenues from mobile games on the Android platform has surpassed the incumbent Apple’s iOS.
2014 oil and gas industry planning cycle: Getting it right
"Oil and gas price volatility. Price uncertainty continues to challenge energy companies as they estimate their net incomes and affordability of capital project budgets. Several companies, including ExxonMobil, Shell and ConocoPhillips, referenced this uncertainty in their 2013 second-quarter results. Lower price realization is a challenge when many companies are still running “marker” gas or crude price in their budgeting exercises.
Longer-term project pipeline quality. With so many large developments and expansion programs scheduled to complete by 2017, the industry must now define the next generation of projects. Gas export terminals in the US, complex East African gas, ultra-deepwater and Arctic drilling, along with a new round of refinery upgrades to meet new fuel specifications—it’s hard to see these all as high-return projects. We expect many companies will return to mature sites and look for the missed oil, tapping improved recovery techniques, including advanced seismic sensing, digital oilfield applications and the next generation of drilling technology advances. The industry could in 2014 start to signal a move away from mega-projects, to large reactivation and infill programs upstream as well as selective expansions around advantaged sites in the downstream.
The planning challenge specific to each company’s circumstances and portfolio will vary, but most will have exploration, gas, projects and operational performance on their planning priorities lists.
Exploration focus. Exploration is difficult at the best of times, as the license round schedule, drilling success rates, and the costs and availability of rigs all introduce uncertainty. For larger players, materiality and maturation speed are constant concerns, which is why we have seen many companies now quoting resource addition annual performance in addition to proven (P1) reserve additions. To grow 100,000 barrels of oil equivalent (BOE) per day, producers need to consistently find an extra 35 million to 45 million BOE per year. For the supermajors and large NOCs to sustain production, finding 1 billion to 1.5 billion BOE a year is the challenge.
The priority exploration themes for 2014 seem to be the following:
The number of focus areas required by an oil company is largely a function of size. But with exploration budgets of $500 million per year for even the independents and as much as $5 billion per year or more for the supermajors, there seems to be no shortage of investment dollars targeting emerging trends and new opportunities.
Gas. Planning for one to five years in gas—once a stable, long-term part of the portfolio—has taken on a challenging degree of uncertainty. Unconventional gas in the US has caused major swings in market prices and the value of gas assets. The most recent of these include the write-downs by many companies that had built up big resource positions, such as Anadarko, BHP Billiton, Encana, Noble, Statoil, Shell and Total; cost escalation for mega offshore projects, as experienced by Chevron Australia; and large new discoveries in East Africa, India, Argentina, the eastern Mediterranean and Australia.
Gas remains a very strong part of the mix and will drive a large part of the volume growth for the international oil companies (IOCs) over the next decade. But project delivery is likely to be slow, with commercialization subject to greater gas-to-gas competition. The best projects will still yield solid returns and support growing demand. But it is more important than ever to hold “advantaged” assets to deliver strong results.
Major projects start up. Major conventional projects face two main performance challenges, in addition to meeting cost expectations, of course. First, will the project meet its start-up date? Second, will it perform to expectations? Recent history suggests that the larger the project, the more susceptible it is to slippage. Once up and running, there is a strong likelihood that the first six months will see lumpy performance rather than a smooth ramp-up, as the facility transfers from project to operations.
Unconventional projects are quite different in nature, more akin to a long-running manufacturing program that has a constantly moving work site. For planning effectiveness, the measure is how many wells can we complete and hook up, how quickly and at what unit cost. For the 2014 plan, it will be vital to know if these criteria are escalating, steady or declining.
Realistic operational delivery. The operational reliability of the oil and gas industry continues to be a major challenge and a huge opportunity to realize value. For example, in the North Sea the average oil production asset performs well below its theoretical potential and has a large backlog of maintenance work . From a planning perspective, it is critical to have a clear view of historical performance, as well as reasons to expect stronger or weaker future delivery and the extent to which planned programs and interventions will increase operational performance".
Source: Bain & Company
Mainland China entering new era of luxury cooldown, finds Bain & Company’s 2013 “China luxury goods market study”
Mainland China’s luxury goods market has slowed from seven percent growth in 2012 to around two percent in 2013, with expectations of similarly slow growth in 2014; this according to the 2013 China Luxury Goods Market Study, presented today at a press conference in Shanghai. Chinese shoppers now do two-thirds of their luxury shopping abroad, triggering slowdowns in store traffic and store openings domestically. Chinese remain the largest nationality of luxury buyers worldwide, with purchases that make up 29 percent of the global market, a four percentage point increase versus last year. At the same time, consumption in China is also shifting, with women’s categories and fashion becoming more prominent, as a result of Chinese shoppers becoming more sophisticated. These shifts are an extension of trends that began at the end of 2012; they are creating new imperatives for brands as they reexamine their operations in China from pricing, to customer relationships, to fashion content, and to local talent management.
Several factors have generated this cooling of China’s previously exuberant luxury market domestically, finds the Bain study. The highly visible government campaign encouraging frugality and focusing on corruption had a large impact on gifting, which had been one of the major growth engines of the sector. This campaign especially constrained the growth of luxury watches and men’s categories. Watches make up over one fifth of the total domestic luxury market, and sales have declined by 11 percent in 2013. In addition, menswear shifted from being a growth category in prior years to a slightly declining category in 2013, also affected by the reduction of gifting. Finally, the cosmetics, perfume, and personal care category, a mainstay of China’s domestic market that generates over one quarter of sales, is down from 15 percent growth last year to around 10 percent this year.
Bain does, however, find bright spots in China’s domestic sales in women’s categories: Womenswear and shoes show strong momentum, with growth rates for the year ranging from eight to 10 percent. Much of this performance stems from women’s increasing sophistication and influence, which has driven men’s and women’s share of luxury spending in China to equal levels in 2013, a rapid evolution from a starting point of over 90% spending by men in 1995.
“China’s luxury market has quickly changed from land-grab to steady focus on consumer experience and ‘like for like’ sales,” said Bruno Lannes, a Bain partner in Greater China and lead author of the Chinese edition of the study. “The mindset among global brands here is changing from men’s categories and accessories to women’s categories and fashion. Brands are preparing for this major shift.”
As the market evolves, the Bain study identifies four changes that are now adding complexity to China’s domestic luxury:
- Store expansion is no longer enough to drive growth. The number of new openings by global brands in China declined by one-third this year to roughly 100 from 150 last year for the 20 brands in the study. The new focus for most brands is now renovation, relocation and operational improvement for domestic shoppers, as “like for like” sales have been negative for most brands in 2013
- Consumer segments are more complex. For example, in Tier 1 cities, as Chinese shoppers become more sophisticated, they realize that the only way to show their uniqueness and personality is through fashion with personalized mix and match, not with accessories that everybody can wear. These shoppers are different from the more traditional shopper in Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities. Reaching these diverse segments forces brands to be more nuanced in their approach to shoppers and in their offering than ever before
- Marketing and sales channels are quickly shifting as well. In Bain’s study, 73 percent of consumers use the Internet (company websites, news websites, microblogs, mobile apps, etc.) to get information about luxury goods purchases before they buy. Chinese shoppers are extremely well informed. In addition, nearly 60 percent of consumers have made at least some luxury purchases through parallel channels known as “DaiGou” (via overseas contacts, via Taobao, or via other professional buyer agencies and websites) rather than from brands or department stores. Half of those who have not purchased this way would consider it in the future
- The market is polarizing at the highest and lowest ends of the luxury products spectrum. For example, in handbags, 25 percent of models from luxury brands fall under RMB 5,000, while 33 percent fall over RMB 20,000
- Source: Bain and Company
Tencent’s Co-founder Vic Lee Joins the Board of Advisors of Israeli Startup Mobli to Help it Enter the China Market
Chinese Internet mogul Vic Lee will be joining multi-billionaire Carlos Slim and Kazakh businessman Kegnes Rakishev to help Mobli take on the Chinese market. But is that all there is to it? We think not.
A week after announcing it would start trading its stock on NASDAQ’s private market, and four months after enlisting multi-billionaire Carlos Slim, Israeli startup Mobli adds another star to its roster. This time it’s the Chinese Tencent’s Co-Founder, Vic Lee, that is joining the company board of advisors to assist Mobli in expanding its reach in China, and to explore new monetization pathways.
Only 6 months ago Mobli announced their massive $60M round of funding led by multi-billionaire and America-Mobil owner Carlos Slim, in a move to take on Latin-America. In a statement released earlier today, the company revealed that Vic Lee, one of the founders of the Chinese internet giant Tencent was also an investor in that round and will now join the company’s advisory team to help with their expansion into his own home-court in China.
In the last six months alone, the company has added more than 3M new users to its app, a good number considering it is about 20% of their 15M user base to date. However, it’s not very impressive compared to the market leader, Instagram, which announced that it reached the 150M user mark late last year–more than 10 times more than Mobli. But Instagram’s stronger markets are the US and parts of Europe, so Mobli is trying to take on other, some-what less competitive, markets in an experience to gain a prominent advantage that will allow the company to grow.
Lee explains that while the Chinese market already has competitors in the field, he still thinks a company like Mobli has strong chances in capturing a big enough market share. “[mobli] is one of the most promising companies I’ve seen, and it has the potential to disrupt and transform large sectors of the Chinese market. I’m incredibly excited to work with such an innovative, young company and to introduce Chinese users to this remarkable platform and experience.” Lee said in the official announcement.
But while Lee believes Mobli’s chances of success in China are good, the company still has to face an uphill battle with competitors like Chinese Camera360 (which already has more than three times the amount of users that Mobli has), Internet giant Baidu’s MoTu and other popular apps such as Vida, Tuding and Lemeleme. We’re assuming that part of Lee’s interest in Mobli stems from the fact that mobile photo and video sharing is still something Tencent is trying to figure out, after their own Instagram-like endeavor, called Q Pai launched back in 2011 and wasn’t a great success like one might have hoped.
Source: TechNode
Worldwide Tablet Growth Forecast to Slow as New and Replacement Purchases in Mature Markets Begin to Level Off, According to IDC
"According to the International Data Corporation Worldwide Quarterly Tablet Traccker , the total tablet market, inclusive of both tablets and 2-in-1 devices, is forecast to grow 19.4% in 2014, down from a growth rate of 51.6% in 2013. IDC reduced the 2014 forecast by -3.6% from its previous projection to 260.9 million units worldwide. The reduction in the short-term forecast was due to slowing consumer purchases as hardware iterations slow and the installed base—particularly in mature markets—continues to grow.
Over the course of the past two years average selling prices (ASPs) have declined rapidly in the tablet market, but this too appears to be slowing. In 2012, ASPs declined -18.3% from the previous year, and in 2013 prices dropped another -14.6%. Price erosion has started to slowly bottom out, with ASPs forecast to drop a modest -3.6% in 2014. IDC believes ASP declines will slow for several reasons; chief among them are the growth of higher-priced commercial shipments and a consumer movement away from ultra-low cost products.
"After years of strong growth, we expect the white-box tablet market to slow in 2014 as consumers move to higher-end devices that work better and last longer," said IDC's Tom Mainelli, Program Vice President, Devices & Displays. "In mature markets, where many buyers have purchased higher-end products from market leaders, consumers are deciding that their current tablets are good enough for the way they use them. Few are feeling compelled to upgrade the same way they did in years past, and that's having an impact on growth rates."
As consumer shipments slow in many markets, commercial shipments will grow as a percentage of the overall mix. Much of the tablet growth in commercial to date has been in verticals such as education, but going forward IDC expects tablets to continue to infiltrate small, medium, and large businesses around the world. This commercial growth is likely to benefit Microsoft's Windows over time.
"The choice of operating system will be a key differentiating factor when it comes to success in the commercial segment," said Jitesh Ubrani, Research Analyst, Worldwide Tablet Tracker. "Though Android and iOS will remain dominant, we expect Windows-based devices to capture more than a quarter of the market as its benefits become apparent thanks to growing adoption of 2-in1s."
Source: IDC
Alibaba Group Statement
"Alibaba Group has decided to commence the process of an initial public offering in the United States. This will make us a more global company and enhance the company’s transparency, as well as allow the company to continue to pursue our long-term vision and ideals. Should circumstances permit in the future, we will be constructive toward extending our public status in the China capital market in order to share our growth with the people of China. We wish to thank those in Hong Kong who have supported Alibaba Group. We respect the viewpoints and policies of Hong Kong and will continue to pay close attention to and support the process of innovation and development of Hong Kong.”
Instagram tops the list of social network growth
Source: GlobalWebIndex
In a previous post, we looked at the rising popularity of mobile messaging and social networking apps between Q2 and Q4 2013 – noting growth across the board and particularly strong rises for services such as WeChat.
Here we turn our attention to engagement with social networks proper, tracking changes in estimated user numbers across all devices.
The figures reveal that Instagram made the biggest gains during the second half of 2013, increasing its estimated audience size by 23% to 90.77 million. It’s worth noting that Instagram also has one of the greatest shares of 16-24s among its active user base, something which is clearly contributing to its growth.
A strong rise was also recorded by Reddit (+13%), with small to modest increases for a range of others (including LinkedIn, Pinterest, Tumblr, Quora, Google+ and Twitter). And with this data excluding China due to the distorting effects it can have on global figures, the rises seen for micro-blogging sites Tencent Weibo and Sina Weibo represent growth outside of their home market.
At the other end of the spectrum, Facebook recorded a slight drop in its estimated active user numbers between Q2 and Q4. But a dip of -3% is hardly illustrative of widespread abandonment, as some recent reports have claimed (we’ve rebuffed this elsewhere). Facebook’s active user base still remains considerably ahead of the 500 million mark, making it the leading social platform by quite some distance.
Among the major platforms, Myspace experienced the biggest drop, down 12% and with an estimated audience which is now smaller than that of Tumblr. Along with several country-specific networks across Europe which also lost considerable numbers of active users between Q2 and Q4 (e.g. Hyves, Tuenti, MeinVZ, Copains d’Avant), it’s here that there’s more cause for concern.
Crimeans vote over 90 percent to quit Ukraine for Russia
Russian state media said Crimeans voted overwhelmingly to break with Ukraine and join Russia on Sunday, as Kiev accused Moscow of pouring forces into the peninsula and warned separatist leaders "the ground will burn under their feet".
With over half the votes counted, 95.5 percent had chosen the option of annexation by Moscow, the head of the referendum commission, Mikhail Malyshev, said two hours after polls closed. Turnout was 83 percent, he added - a high figure given that many who opposed the move had said they would boycott the vote.
Western powers and leaders in Kiev denounced it as a sham.
"This referendum is contrary to Ukraine's constitution," a White House spokesman said. "The international community will not recognise the results of a poll administered under threats of violence and intimidation from a Russian military intervention that violates international law."
The Kremlin said Putin told Obama the referendum was legitimate and he expressed concern about the Ukrainian government's failure to stamp out violence against Russian speakers in the country.
"Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin drew attention to the inability and unwillingness of the present authorities in Kiev to curb rampant violence by ultra-nationalist and radical groups that destabilise the situation and terrorise civilians, including the Russian-speaking population," the Kremlin said.
It said Putin suggested European monitors should be sent to all parts of Ukraine because of the violence.
Kiev said Moscow's build-up of forces in the Black Sea peninsula was in "crude violation" of an international treaty, and announced plans to arm and train 20,000 members of a newly-created National Guard.
U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry told Moscow that Washington would not accept the outcome of the vote in the region, which has an ethnic Russian majority and was transferred to Ukraine by Soviet rulers only 60 years ago.
The White House also warned Moscow to expect sanctions while foreign ministers from the European Union, which has major trade ties with Russia, will decide on possible similar action in Brussels on Monday.
But Putin rejected Western accusations that the referendum was illegal, saying it respected the will of the Crimean people, while his foreign ministry said it had agreed with the United States to seek a solution to the crisis through constitutional reform.
Many Crimeans hope union with Russia will bring better pay and make them citizens of a country capable of asserting itself on the world stage. But others saw the referendum as a land grab by the Kremlin from Ukraine, whose new rulers want to move the country towards the European Union and away from Russia's sway.
Putin defended the vote in a phone call on Sunday with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, saying it complied with international law, including Article 1 of the U.N. Charter which states the principle of self-determination of peoples. "It was emphasized that Russia will respect the choice of the Crimean people," a Kremlin statement said.
Putin has said he must protect the Russian-speaking population in Ukraine from "fascists" in Kiev who ousted Yanukovich. Western powers largely dismiss his characterisation of the new authorities as successors of Nazi-allied Ukrainian forces which fought the Red Army in World War Two.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov urged Kerry on Sunday to encourage authorities in Kiev to stop what he called "massive lawlessness" against the Russian-speaking population.
In their second phone conversation in two days, Lavrov and Kerry agreed to seek a solution to the crisis by pushing for constitutional reforms in Ukraine, Russia's foreign ministry said in a statement.
However, Kerry told Lavrov that the United States would not accept the referendum result and said Russia must pull back its forces to their bases, a senior State Department official said.
The White House also warned Putin that he faces international isolation that will hurt Russia's economy.
The administration is preparing to identify Russians whom the United States will seek to punish with visa bans and asset freezes that President Obama authorised last week.
At the United Nations, 13 Security Council members voted for a draft resolution on Saturday saying the Crimea result should not be recognised internationally, but Moscow exercised its veto while China abstained.
WSJ: Alibaba Set for New York IPO
The Wall Street Journal reports, Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. said Sunday that it has decided to start the process of listing on a U.S. stock exchange, bringing to New York what could be one of the largest Internet initial public offerings in history.
In a brief statement posted in its website, Alibaba said a U.S. IPO—which people familiar with the matter said could raise as much as $15 billion—would "make us a more global company and enhance the company's transparency."
Alibaba's financial affiliates, such as the ones that run its Alipay electronic payment service and Yu'E Bao money-market fund, won't be included in the currently planned IPO, the person said.
Alibaba's statement sets the stage for the biggest U.S. IPO ever of a Chinese company. A $15 billion listing would top the dual New York-Hong Kong $5.7 billion listing of China Unicom Ltd.
Alibaba's statement also appears to close the door finally on listing on the Hong Kong bourse, which had been vying with New York exchanges for the deal, but objected to some of Alibaba's proposed listing terms. Alibaba may consider listing its shares in China in the future, the company said in Sunday's statement, though it didn't mention any specific plans.
"We respect the viewpoints and policies of Hong Kong and will continue to pay close attention to and support the process of innovation and development of Hong Kong," Alibaba said in Sunday's statement.
China's e-commerce market is already bigger than the U.S. market by some measures, and Alibaba dominates that market. Alibaba's most popular websites, Taobao and Tmall, are marketplaces where many merchants sell items directly to consumers.
China's e-commerce market is already bigger than the U.S. market by some measures, and Alibaba dominates that market. Alibaba's most popular websites, Taobao and Tmall, are marketplaces where many merchants sell items directly to consumers.
Total gross merchandise traded on Alibaba's e-commerce sites last year was $240 billion, according to a person with knowledge of the figures. By comparison, the equivalent figure for Amazon.com Inc. last year was roughly $100 billion, according to Forrester Research.
Alibaba's revenues are far smaller than Amazon's because the Chinese company doesn't directly sell the products on its sites. But Alibaba's business is highly profitable because many merchants who use its websites pay for advertising and other additional services.
In the three months through September, the most recent numbers available, Alibaba's revenue rose 51% to $1.78 billion from a year earlier. Net profit stood at $792 million, giving the company a net profit margin of 44.6%, according to shareholder Yahoo Inc., which owns a 24% stake in Alibaba. In the same quarter, Amazon posted a loss of $41 million on revenue of $17.09 billion.
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