Password addio: ci faremo riconoscere con le impronte, la voce e il pensiero

Apriti, Sesamo: quanto è fragile l’attuale sistema per autenticarsi online? Estremamente fragile. Colpa innanzitutto delle password facili da ricordare, ma al tempo stesso molto semplici da indovinare per hacker o utenti malintenzionati. Una regola di base: per garantire una maggiore sicurezza i codici d’accesso devono essere lunghi, complicati e sostituiti con frequenza. In altre parole: difficili da ricordare. Ma non sempre è sufficiente. I colossi dell’informatica stanno lavorando a futuristici sistemi: l’accesso biometrico, il riconoscimento facciale e quello vocale. Alcuni ricercatori studiano persino l'uso delle onde cerebrali. La promessa: un metodo per ovviare in modo semplice ed efficace ai furti delle informazioni personali (ed aziendali) ad opera dei cybercriminali. E che sia privo di vulnerabilità. 
 La prima è stata Apple che per il suo iPhone 5s ha sdoganato il lettore d'impronte digitali per sbloccare il telefono senza dovere impostare un codice. Pure Htc, Lg e Samsung hanno riferito di voler dotare i loro prossimi dispositivi con sensori di impronte digitali simili.Microsoft ha annunciato che la prossima versione del suo sistema operativo (Windows 8.1), in uscita il prossimo mese, sarà ottimizzata per le tecnologie di lettura biometriche. Poi ci sono Google, PayPal, Lenovo: le società si sono riunite in un consorzio battezzato Fido (Fast Identity Online) che intende creare un hardware «autenticatore» e standard per permettere di ridurre la dipendenza dalle password. L'idea: un hardware in grado di identificarsi presso i siti Internet in modo non falsificabile; l'utente si fa riconoscere non direttamente dal sito, ma dal device stesso. 
E parlando di futuro prossimo, un gruppo di ricercatori dell'Università di Berkeley, in California, sta studiando addirittura l'uso di onde cerebrali per l'autenticazione. I soggetti nello studio hanno indossato delle speciali cuffie in grado di misurare i segnali provenienti dal cervello mentre immaginavano di compiere una determinata azione. In teoria, pensare a una particolare azione potrebbe addirittura diventare il nuovo concetto di password: i ricercatori sono infatti riusciti a distinguere le persone con un'accuratezza del 99 per cento.

Corriere della Sera

Precious Metals Prices 19.09.13 10.34 Eastern Time

Gold Price Futures     3 months    US$  1,364.64

Silver Price Futures    3 months    US$       22.96

China's FDI has great growth potential

The rapid growth in Chinese overseas investment has caught much global attention but can hardly cover its actually small stock. As the Economist magazine described, China is "a relative newcomer to big direct investments."

Chinese official data showed China's external direct investment hit a record of 87.8 billion U.S. dollars in 2012, making it the third largest country in outbound FDI following the United States and Japan.

However, in terms of stock, the accumulated volume of Chinese overseas investment reached 531.94 billion dollars, about one tenth of that of the United States, one third of Germany, and half of Japan.

UN statistics showed the inward FDI in China hit 121 billion dollars in 2012, 38 percent higher than the outward FDI, while the stock of the inward FDI has exceeded 1.3 trillion dollars, 2.5 times more than that of the outward FDI.

Therefore, there is a great space for the growth of China's outward FDI in the future.

As of now, the Chinese economy is at a turning point, where the economic model is shifting from export and investment driven growth to the one powered by domestic demand.

At the same time, China is seeking to climb from the end of the global value chain, featuring low costs and profits, to high productivity and high added value end.

The UN World Investment Report 2013 pointed that the global value chain occupies about 80 percent of global trade, "longer-term, GVCs (global value chain) can be an important avenue for developing countries to build productive capacity, including through technology dissemination and skill building, opening up opportunities for industrial upgrading."

Source: Xinhua

Japan land prices fall at slowest pace in five years

Japan's land prices fell the least since the global financial crisis in the year to July 1, while commercial land in the three biggest cities rose in value for the first time in the same period, the latest signs that deflation is easing its stubborn grip on the country.

Land prices nationwide fell 1.9 percent, narrowing from the previous year's 2.7 percent decline and the smallest drop since 2008, a government survey showed on Thursday.This brings Japan closer to ending 22 years of falling land prices - a legacy of the country's massive 1980s asset bubble.
The gradual narrowing of land-price declines is good news for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, whose top priority is ending Japan's long battle with deflation and spurring sustained growth with an expansionary policy mix of monetary, fiscal and structural reform measures.
The latest land ministry data already show how uneven the real-estate improvement has been, with rises limited to the best properties in the choicest areas.
Commercial land prices in the greater Tokyo, Osaka and Nagoya areas ticked up 0.6 percent, and residential land in Nagoya - home of Toyota Motor Corp (7203.T) - rose 0.7 percent, the first such increases since prices tumbled in the wake of Lehman Brothers' collapse.
Overall land prices in cities surrounding the three largest cities also edged up by 0.1 percent.

In Golden Week Holliday China Railway Corp will carry more than 10 million people

China's railway will carry more than 10 million people on the peak day during the coming National Day Holiday, said the China Railway Corporation on Thursday.

From Sept. 28 to Oct. 7, the daily passenger volume will reach 8.1 million on average, up by 10.9 percent, or an increment of 5.73 million passengers from a year earlier, it said in a statement.

The seven-day National Day Holiday, also called "Golden Week," starts on Oct. 1.

Around 9.14 million people travelled by train on the peak day during last year's National Day Holiday, the highest daily passenger volume so far.

This year, the peak is expected to fall on Oct. 1, with about 10.1 million passengers carried by trains. Thirty-one pairs of additional trains will be put into temporary service during the holiday to cope with the surging demand, according to the statement.

Source: Xinhua

Japan firms' mood dips; export growth fastest in three years

Confidence among Japanese manufacturers slipped in September from a three-year high on worries about a slowdown in emerging markets, although the fastest growth in exports since late 2010 suggested the economy is still building momentum.

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's reflationary policies and central bank stimulus weakened the yen through much of the first half of 2013, and exports look to be benefiting from that as demand starts to pick up in major economies.

But the weaker yen also increased the import bill and pushed the trade balance into a 14th successive deficit in August, matching a record streak in 1979/80 and suggesting the old export-led model of growth needs to be reviewed.

"I cannot foresee an end to trade deficits, although exports will continue to pick up due to a weak yen and improvement in Europe," said Takuya Hoshino, economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute.

"Business sentiment was down reflecting slowdown in emerging economies and the impact of a weak yen boosting import costs, but still it is at high levels. Today's data confirms an economic recovery continuing towards early next year."

A monthly Reuters poll, which is strongly correlated with the Bank of Japan's tankan poll, showed sentiment among manufacturers fell to plus 12 in September, its lowest since May, from a three-year high of 16 in August.

TPP partners eye copyright rules

Participating countries in Trans-Pacific Partnership trade pact negotiations have agreed to introduce strict rules aimed at cracking down on counterfeit and pirated products in the field of intellectual property rights, sources close to the multilateral talks said.

The introduction of stricter rules will do much to curtail the distribution of lower-priced fake products, a move likely to make it easier for Japanese corporations to sell their goods at regular prices, according to observers.The protection of intellectual property rights has been one of the contentious issues addressed during the 12-country free trade talks.
During the TPP negotiations, Japan urged other Pacific Rim countries to adopt rules as rigid as the Anti-Counterfeiting Trade Agreement, to which about 30 countries, including the United States and Canada, are signatories. Vietnam, Malaysia and three other emerging economies, none of which have signed the ACTA pact, also agreed to introduce stricter rules on intellectual property rights protection, according to the sources.
Japan, the proponent of the ACTA treaty, is the only one to have fully ratified the pact. The government is currently bolstering regulations on copyright infringement through such measures as law amendments. For instance, the Copyright Law was revised to outlaw the act of duplicating DVDs and other digital media by deactivating protection codes.
Criminal punishments are also possible for secretly recording movies under a law drafted by a group of Diet members. Intellectual property rights infringement is checked not only on imports, but also exports of products, to prevent counterfeit items produced abroad from being sold in third countries

NewsOnJapan

Economistas criticam protecionismo do Brasil

O Brasil precisa ter uma economia menos fechada ao comércio internacional se quiser continuar crescendo de forma sustentável. Esta é a análise dos especialistas que participaram do primeiro dia do Fórum Nacional, organizado pelo Instituto Nacional de Altos Estudos (Inae), no Rio. Para o presidente do conselho do Instituto de Estudos para o Desenvolvimento Industrial (Iedi), Pedro Passos, o modelo de desenvolvimento brasileiro baseado na expansão do crédito já dá sinais de esgotamento. Segundo ele, a desaceleração da economia chinesa, mesmo que inferior à prevista por economistas, deve ter reflexo sobre o ciclo de commodities, afetando o Brasil.

Valor Economico

Japan:Rough road ahead for linear Shinkansen

Construction of the Linear Chuo Shinkansen line is expected to experience difficulties as 86 percent of the 286-kilometer line between Tokyo and Nagoya runs through tunnels.

"We'll overcome [difficulties] with new technology," Central Japan Railway Co. (JR Tokai) President Yoshiomi Yamada has said. However, many problems remain to be solved.JR Tokai announced Wednesday details of the route and stations of the magnetic levitation (maglev) train line, which is scheduled to start services in 2027.
Construction of the Linear Chuo Shinkansen line between Tokyo (Shinagawa) and Nagoya is estimated to cost about ¥5 trillion, and another ¥4 trillion will be necessary to extend the line to Osaka. JR Tokai will shoulder the entire cost. "The project won't pay for itself," Yamada said.
If the line is built based on the law for Shinkansen railways development, JR Tokai will be able to receive a subsidy from the government. However, because new Shinkansen lines in other areas will be constructed first, JR Tokai decided to build the linear Shinkansen line at its own expense.
"If we wait for public funds, we'll never be able to start the construction," a JR Tokai official said.
However, the cost to construct the Linear Chuo Shinkansen line is too much for the company, which has to make major renovations to its Tokaido Shinkansen line. JR Tokai also has long-term debt that it inherited from the now-defunct Japanese National Railways.
Therefore, JR Tokai decided to build the maglev train line in two stages. The company will first start services between Tokyo and Nagoya and then begin to extend the line to Osaka after it regains financial strength.

Source: NewsOnJapan

Brasil: ANP divulga empresas interessadas no pré-sal

A Agência Nacional do Petróleo, Gás Natural e Biocombustíveis (ANP) divulgou nesta quinta-feira a lista das 11 empresas cadastradas para participação no leilão do prospecto de Libra, no pré-sal da Bacia d

Gigantes

As petroleiras britânicas BP e BG e as norte-americanas ExxonMobil e Chevron não vão participar do leilão. A diretora-geral da ANP, Magda Chambriar, já havia informado sobre a negativa das três primeiras.

Ela contou ter recebido ligações de representantes das empresas informando que não participariam do leilão, marcado para 21 de outubro, por motivos específicos. A diretora informou que esperava todas as companhias, as chamadas "A" e as "B" para o leilão e previa participação de até 40 companhias.

As empresas classificadas como "A" são aquelas com experiência já comprovada em exploração e produção em águas profundas, ultra-profundas, águas rasas e terra. Já as empresas do tipo "B" são as que têm experiência apenas em águas rasas e terra.

Se inscreveram na ANP e pagaram a taxa de R$ 2 milhões as empresas chinesas CNOOC International Limited e China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC); a japonesa Mitsui; a colombiana Ecopetrol; a indiana ONGC Videsh; a portuguesa Petrogal; a Petrobras; a malaia Petronas; a hispano-chinesa Repsol-Sinopec; a anglo-holandesa Shell; e a francesa Total.

ANP

Destinazione Italia, segnale forte al mondo

«Destinazione Italia è un piano di attrazione degli investimenti a cui diamo molta importanza, ci sarà una consultazione pubblica con soggetti istituzionali e pubblici, è importante dare un segno forte al mondo di coloro che sono interessati a fare investimenti economici e finanziari». Così il premier Enrico Letta, nel presentare a palazzo Chigi il provvedimento appena varato dal Cdm. «Cominceremo anche un road show nelle principali piazze finanziarie ed economiche, la cui prima tappa sarà l’incontro a Wall Street la prossima settimana, a cui seguirà una tappa nei Paesi del Golfo il 7-8-9 ottobre».

IL MODELLO - «Il nostro Paese non ha paura della globalizzazione, anzi vogliamo stare in questo sistema, con un modello che non è né l’outlet, in cui si svende tutto a poco prezzo, né forte Apache, in cui si difende con le unghie e coi denti tutto ciò che è italiano», ha aggiunto il premier che ha spiegato come domani il Consiglio dei ministri approverà «la nota di variazione al Def». Con il piano «inizia un percorso di privatizzazioni» che riguarderà «cose che è giusto privatizzare perché non sempre privato è meglio del pubblico», come si è visto in esempi passati. 

La Fed fait-elle une erreur de politique monétaire ?

La Réserve fédérale américaine (Fed) a donc pris à contre-pied la grande majorité des investisseurs qui escomptait un ralentissement des injections de liquidité.

La décision est tellement surprenante qu'elle génère deux types de risque. A court terme, elle rend sa politique monétaire non conventionnelle moins lisible et crée un facteur d'incertitude susceptible de générer des accès futurs de volatilité sur les marchés financiers.

Ainsi, si les statistiques de l'emploi s'améliorent sensiblement en octobre, les investisseurs pourraient considérer que la banque centrale américaine est en retard dans son processus de normalisation monétaire. Les tensions sur les taux d'intérêt resurgiraient alors.

Inversement, des statistiques décevantes pourraient nourrir l'idée qu'elle s'inquiète réellement des perspectives de croissance de l'économie américaine et, in fine, générer des mouvements d'aversion au risque chez les agents économiques. A moyen terme, lier cette politique non conventionnelle à des données potentiellement volatiles et imparfaites – après tout le taux de chômage est une variable retardée de l'état de l'économie et son niveau naturel est "inconnu" – fait peser le risque d'une erreur de politique monétaire.

Le Monde

Eurosceptical party is on the brink of entering the German parliament for the first time

 A new Eurosceptical party is on the brink of entering the German parliament for the first time, an opinion poll showed, casting doubt on Chancellor Angela Merkel's bid to maintain her centre-right coalition and complicating here euro zone  policy.

Merkel still looks set to secure a third term in Sunday's general election. But the Alternative for Germany (AfD), which has risen on a tide of public hostility to bailouts of indebted southern euro zone countries, could further fragment the lower house, forcing her into a right-left "grand coalition".

A breakthrough for the party, which advocates forcing weaker members out of the single currency area, would send shock waves around Europe and could spook financial markets, even though its voice in parliament would be small.

If the AfD becomes the first new party to enter the Bundestag since 1990, Merkel would probably have to negotiate a coalition with the pro-European opposition Social Democrats (SPD), with whom she governed in 2005-2009.

The ruling Christian Democrats (CDU) had tried to ignore the AfD, but abruptly changed tack this week and deployed respected Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble to attack the sceptics, who want Greece and other bailout recipients out of the euro.

Source: Reuters

Syrian Conflict, France could provide arms to rebels

French President Francois Hollande suggested for the first time on Thursday that Paris could arm Syrian rebels in a "controlled framework," given that they were now caught between the Syrian government on one side and radical Islamists on the other.

Noting that Russia was supplying arms to the Syrian government, Hollande, speaking in Mali, said France could provide arms to rebels, "but we will do it in a broader context with a number of countries and in a framework that can be controlled because we cannot accept that weapons could fall into the hands of jihadists that we have fought against here."

Hollande spoke at a news conference in Bamako where he was attending a ceremony to mark the swearing-in of the country's new president.

IMF, The interconnected Global Economy Part 1

It is the interplay between the global economy and the U.S. economy on which I would like to focus today. In a world of increasing economic interconnections, the challenges facing the United States—and all of us—are greater; but so too are the opportunities. The question is how we can best come together—business leaders, labor groups, policymakers and others—to find the solutions that we need to secure a lasting, balanced, and widely shared recovery.

The Current State of the Global Economy
The advanced economies  are in a better shape than 6 months ago.We see that  growth is picking up here in the United States. For the first time in a long time, the Euro Area is also beginning to grow, although there is still much to be done. And while Japan’s reform efforts are ongoing, it is also doing better thanks to aggressive policy support

Emerging market countries are the other side of the story. In large part, they helped keep the global economy afloat during the crisis. Now, while still dynamic, their momentum is slowing. For some, this may be a shift toward more balanced and sustainable growth. For others, it reflects the need to address imbalances that have made them more vulnerable to the recent market turbulence.

The Global Economy and its interconnections and spillovers. The growing importance of global trade.

Since 1980, the volume of world trade has increased fivefold. And trade has grown in importance for global production. World exports relative to output grew from 20 percent in 1995 to 30 percent in 2008, before falling during the Great Recession, and recovering somewhat since.

There has also been the rapid acceleration of financial integration. 

We all have a large stake in these interconnections. What happens elsewhere in the world—be it the success of recovery in Europe or the continued smooth functioning of supply chains in Asia—matters increasingly for the United States. The converse is also true. What happens here matters increasingly for the global economy.

Source: Christine Legard

            Managing Director,International Monetary Fund

Euro Zone Crisis: EU tentatively approve change in the method to calculate structural deficits of its members

In an article published today in the Wall Street Journal the issue is the change in the methology
used by the EU for estimating the structural deficits of its members:
"European finance officials have tentatively approved a change to the region's budget policies that is likely to lighten the austerity required of Spain and other countries hardest-hit by the sovereign-debt crisis.

Spain and others argue that their deficits have been inflated mainly by the economic crisis, not by lax government spending and low taxes.

In a weak economy, with mass unemployment and many factories running at only a fraction of full capacity, government revenue is depressed and social spending is elevated".

The structural deficit in these circumstances will be lower than the actual deficit, representing the assumption that once the economy strengthens, the real deficit will naturally narrow, without cuts to government spending or tax increases that have proved politically toxic.

But Europe's current method for calculating the structural deficit has determined that much of the budget deficits seen in the bloc's weakest economies are structural, or built-in, not cyclical. That means they will persist even after the economy has returned to full strength. So austerity measures—spending cuts or higher taxes—are required.

The calculation is based on the commission's finding that even some of the bloc's weakest economies are operating relatively close to full capacity, which many of those countries dispute. They argue that the difference between the current state of the economy and full capacity is significantly larger than the commission's estimates.

The commission believes that the "natural" rate of unemployment—if the Spanish economy were operating at full potential—is 23%

The new methodology will lower estimates of the "natural" unemployment rate for crisis-hit countries, meaning that it will need to drop sharply for the economy to be considered operating at full potential.

JPMorgan top picks in Gold Producers

• Barrick Gold and Buenaventura look cheap among gold miners in the Americas, J.P. Morgan says while still giving both neutral ratings because of political risk; ABX has added uncertainty around its balance sheet.
• The firm says ABX’s cash flows have become more difficult to forecast, given uncertainty around two key assets: Fiscal problems in the Dominican Republic will channel half of the early cash flows from the Pueblo Viego project away from ABX, plus the negative ruling from the Chilean court has forced a halt to construction on the Chilean side of the Pascua Lama property.
• On BVN, the tax problem for Peru's resource industry was resolved but the Conga project has become tied up in political disputes linked to positioning for the next election.
• JPM prefers Buy-rated Goldcorp , Newmont Mining and Eldorado Gold 

         Source: Seeking Alpha

Sony Corp is betting on initial Playstation 4 sales to be 40% higher than its predecessor

Sony Corp is betting on initial Playstation 4 sales to be 40 percent higher than its last home game console which cost more to build and buy, raising the prospect of quicker return to help revive its consumer electronics business.

The console goes on sale at almost the same time as Microsoft Corp's Xbox One, and is the new flagship product for a gaming division that, along with cameras and mobile devices, is at the core of a plan to reinvigorate a business long weighed down by loss-incurring televisions.

Sony is targeting PS4 sales of 5 million machines between its November 15 United States launch and the end of the company's financial year on March 31, President and Group CEO of Sony Computer Entertainment Inc Andrew House said in a presentation at the Tokyo Game Show on Thursday.

Sony, like Microsoft, has extended its latest console further beyond gaming by making it a living room entertainment hub controlling movies, television and internet content.

House said Sony's game division is working with Sony Pictures to develop content that it could offer the 150 million Playstation network subscribers. Those projects, however, may remain in the pipeline longer than at its U.S. competitor.

Source: Reuters

BOJ Board Member cautious views of Japan recovery due to uncertainty in Emerging Markets

In an article published today in the Wall Street Journal,there seems to be among members of the board of BOJ a cautious approach of Abenomics given the current uncertainty in emerging market economies and the slow recovery of advanced economies.
Mr Takahide Kiuchi, Bank Of Japan Board member known for his cautious views highlighted the risks posed to Japan by overseas economies, saying growth in developed nations isn't yet strong enough to make up for the slowdown in emerging countries.
Japan is currently hoping higher exports, supported by a weaker yen, will help fuel domestic growth. But Takahide Kiuchi said weaker overseas economies won't bode well for exports.
Mr. Kiuchi also said he couldn't justify the BOJ taking any additional easing measures, despite his concerns that the health of overseas economies, the diminishing positive impact of the weaker yen and higher Japanese stock prices are having an impact on the domestic economy.

"I personally see slightly more downside risks [for Japan's economy], primarily due to heightened uncertainty in overseas economies, particularly in emerging countries," Mr. Kiuchi told business leaders in the city of Kushiro on the northern island of Hokkaido. "The recovery in advanced countries is not strong enough to offset the slowdown in emerging economies," Mr. Kiuchi, formerly chief economist at Nomura Securities, later said at a news conference.

He added that Japan may not be able to count on improvements in export conditions in the future, given the uncertainty in overseas economies".

Europe shares hit 5-year high as Fed stimulus remains

European shares rose on Thursday, with one benchmark index rising to a five-year high after the U.S. Federal Reserve surprised the market by delaying plans to scale back its stimulus measures.

Cyclicals and real estate shares led the rally, with global miner Rio Tinto gaining 1.4 percent and Unibail-Rodamco , Europe's biggest property group, surging 3.9 percent.

Gold miners also jumped, tracking a sharp rally in the precious metal as the U.S. dollar fell. Randgold climbed 8.3 percent and Fresnillo added 5.7 percent.

"The Fed's decision not to taper doesn't change the scenario, it just delays everything," said Oliver Pfeil, portfolio manager, global equities, at Deutsche Asset & Wealth Management, which has about 1 trillion euros ($1.35 trillion) in assets under management.

"The market now realises that it will take much longer to unwind quantitative easing, but at the end, economic growth will pick up, so going into cyclical stocks still makes a lot of sense," he said.

Looking forward, Pfeil sees more upside for European shares than U.S. stocks, expecting a snap-back in stock valuation levels as the euro zone emerges from recession.

Source: Reuters

Sony's SunTzu strategy to reinvent its Company

According to an article published in the Wall Street Journal today
"The Sony chief  Kazuo Hirai said he spent much of his first 18 months as CEO playing what he calls “defense” — cutting costs and streamlining the organization. However, the electronics division is now switching to offense with a wave of new products that “push the envelope.
His comments come on the heels of Sony’s electronics business showing signs of improvement. In the latest quarter ended June, Sony's TV business turned a profit for the first time in three years and its mobile products arm also moved into the black on the back of strong smartphone sales.

While Sony has scaled back the volume of its TV business, it has brought down its fixed costs considerably by unwinding liquid crystal display production joint ventures with Sharp Corp. and Samsung Electronics Co. to buy cheaper panels on the open market. Mr. Hirai said lower costs and a more efficient organization is important, but “that’s not going to move the bar” like a successful new product. He said Sony’s RX1 digital camera, a compact model with a giant, full-frame image sensor that sells for an eye-popping Y250,000 ($2525), is a good example of this approach. Sony said the reception from camera enthusiasts has been overwhelming and it can’t keep the camera in stores".

U.S. Existing-home sales rose 1.7% in August

Existing-home sales rose 1.7% in August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.48 million, the highest level in more than six years, as buyers rushed to lock in mortgage rates before they increased any further, the National Association of Realtorsreported Thursday.
The National Association of Realtors (NAR), which compiles the existing homes report, used the word "panic" in the July report and is warning that the gain in August may have also been skewed higher by nervous buyers and may also prove to be the "last hurrah" as higher mortgage rates, even with yesterday's Fed decision to maintain stimulus, are an immediate threat to the home sales market.

Another factor besides higher rates that is holding down sales is lack of homes on the market, at 4.9 months at the current sales rate vs 5.0 and 5.1 months in the prior two months. But a rise in prices is no longer a factor holding down sales, at least based on data in this report which show very slight downticks with the median price at $212,100.

The increase in mortgage rates has been holding back housing and is especially hitting first-time buyers which the NAR is warning are being "shut out" of the market. The NAR, citing data on the number of lockboxes, is also warning that traffic may be down. The next big report on housing will be next week on Wednesday with new home sales which have been disappointing in recent months.

Source: marketwatch,schwab

Weak Bank Lending one Big reason it is not time to Taper

"The U.S. Federal Reserve decided to hold off on scaling back its bond-buying program on Wednesday, and at least one reason for its choice may have been a stubbornly weak economic indicator: bank lending.

Since the bottom of the recession just over four years ago, commercial bank loans and leases have grown 4.0 percent, one of the weakest post-recession recoveries in terms of borrowing since the 1960s, according to Paul Kasriel, the former chief economist of Northern Trust Company. For comparison, over the same period after the July 1990-March 1991 recession, loans and leases grew over four times faster.

"Given what's happening to bank credit and given that the economy isn't booming, I would say it was very wise that the Fed did not choose to cut back on its asset purchases at this point," Kasriel said in an interview.

In recent weeks, residential mortgage lending has dropped and commercial lending growth has slowed as Fed officials have talked about starting to wind down their bond buying stimulus program. That talk of "tapering" spooked bond markets, lifting long-term borrowing costs.

The Fed noted in its statement that mortgage rates have risen, and added that "the tightening of financial conditions observed in recent months, if sustained, could slow the pace of improvement in the economy and labor market."

Source reuters

Precious Metals Prices 8.27 a.m. Eastern Time

Gold Price Futures     3 months    US$  1,365.12

Silver Price Futures    3  months   US$      23.16

U.S. jobless claims rise

The number of Americans filing new claims for jobless benefits rose last week, but it was difficult to get a clear read on the labor market's health because two states appeared to be working through a backlog of unprocessed claims.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 15,000 to a seasonally adjusted 309,000, the Labor Department said on Thursday.

Claims data have been thrown into disarray since an update to government computer systems in California, the nation's most populous state, and Nevada created a backlog in the processing of new claims two weeks ago.

That initially led to a sharp decline in new processed claims earlier this month, and a Labor Department analyst said the two states still appeared to be working through the backlog, which he said could take another week or two.

If taken at face value, the data hinted at a pickup in hiring during September that might make the Federal Reserve more comfortable about a plan to begin winding down a bond-buying economic stimulus program.

At the same time, policymakers have recently appeared more demanding about how much better the outlook for hiring must be before they trim monthly bond purchases.

Source: Reuters

LOWER THAN EXPECTED RETAIL SALES UPSET STERLING POUND

Retail sales data out of the UK has rained on the parade enjoyed by the sterling pound up to that point.

Lower than expected retail sales for the month of August marks a digression from the wave of positive economic data that led the Bank of England (BoE) to take on an optimistic tone in the meeting minutes released on Wednesday.

Retail sales volumes fell 0.9% on the month, disappointing economists who had expected a rise of 0.4%, and down from a 1.1% gain in July. Meanwhile, the annual rate of growth slowed to 2.1% from 3.0%. The previous month's figure was reported to be boosted by hot weather. 

LiveCharts

EUR/USD BREACHES 1.3500

The markets have reacted, as expected, with a strong USD sell-off to the surprising news that the Federal Reserve decided not to ease its stimulus this month. It was already 'priced in' the FX market that the Fed would start tapering by 10bn dollars, although only a few analysts, like Kathy Lien, managing director at BK Asset Management [or Craig Erlam from Alpari UK and Steen Jakobsen at Saxo Bank] had considered that it may start in December, if then. "If the Fed chooses to do so, we expect the dollar to sell-off quickly and aggressively," said Lien.

The EUR/USD reacted higher, breaking the key resistance of 1.34 and rapidly climbing to levels close to 1.3488, right after the announcement.

The excessively dovish tone in Ben Bernake's speech has also boosted the pair, which jumped above 1.3500, reaching a multi-weeks high at 1.3512.

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Central Banks introduce non-monetary measures to prevent house price bubble

Five years after a financial crash that had its roots in a housing bubble, global policymakers are rapidly increasing the use of targeted lending curbs to head off destabilizing property market booms and busts.

Authorities have introduced a range of non-monetary measures in the past year to dampen house price inflation and credit growth so borrowers and lenders alike are shielded somewhat when interest rates rise from historically low levels.

From Singapore to Sweden, from New Zealand to Switzerland, precautionary policy activism is gathering momentum.

 Policymakers are likely to use ‘macroprudential measures', these aim to reduce the vulnerability of the financial system as a whole rather than its component parts.

To skim the froth off property prices, measures to reduce the supply of credit or make it more expensive include limiting the size of a loan relative to the value of the property and capping the share of a borrower's income going to service debt.

Other steps are putting a floor under the risk weights applied to property loans, increasing provisions on housing loans and limiting banks' exposure to the housing sector.

The evidence is that loan-to-value (LTV) and debt-to-income (DTI) caps in particular are hitting the mark.

"These measures have been found successful in containing exuberant mortgage loan growth, speculative real estate transactions, and house price accelerations during the upswing," a new International Monetary Fund working paper concludes.

Ultra-low global interest rates have given some open economies little choice but to resort to macroprudential measures. Raising borrowing costs to douse property markets would have sucked in even more speculative capital and pushed up their exchange rates.

Singapore in June lowered its DTI mortgage cap to 60 percent. Concerned about rising household debt, the central bank estimated the proportion of vulnerable borrowers could rise to 10-15 percent if mortgage rates - well below 2 percent a year - were to rise by 3 percentage points.

With house prices at record highs, New Zealand is tightening LTV ratios rather than raising interest rates. From October, no more than 10 percent of new home loans can go to mortgages that exceed 80 percent of a property's value.

In February, Switzerland went much further when it became the first country to activate a counter-cyclical capital buffer for banks' domestic mortgages, requiring them to set aside an extra 1 percentage point of capital for home loans.

Source: Reuters