The Battle of Words on Ukraine Crisis

 Russia declared Ukraine on the brink of civil war on Tuesday as Kiev said an "anti-terrorist operation" against pro-Moscow separatists was under way, with troops and armoured personnel carriers seen near a flashpoint eastern town.

Twenty-four hours after an Ukrainian ultimatum expired for the rebels to lay down their arms, witnesses however saw no signs yet that Kiev forces were about to storm state buildings in the Russian-speaking east that armed militants have occupied.

Interim President Oleksander Turchinov insisted the operation had started in the eastern Donetsk region, although it would happen in stages and "in a considered way".

Amidst the deepest East-West crisis since the Cold War, the leaders of Russia and the United States have called on each other to do all in their power to avoid further bloodshed.

The standoff has raised fears that Moscow might turn off gas supplies to Kiev, disrupting flows to the European Union. Russian exporter Gazprom promised it would remain a reliable supplier to the EU, but German energy company RWE began deliveries to Ukraine on Tuesday - reversing the usual east-west flow in one central European pipeline.

Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev gave a gloomy assessment after at least two people died on Sunday when Kiev unsuccessfully tried to regain control in the town of Slaviansk, about 150 km (90 miles) from the Russian border.

"Blood has once again been spilt in Ukraine. The country is on the brink of civil war," he said on his Facebook page.

Turchinov said the offensive, which he first announced on Sunday, was finally underway. "The anti-terrorist operation began during the night in the north of Donetsk region. But it will take place in stages, responsibly, in a considered way. I once again stress: the aim of these operations is to defend the citizens of Ukraine," he told parliament.

At least 15 armoured personnel carriers displaying Ukrainian flags were parked by the side of a road around 50 km (30 miles) north of Slaviansk, witnesses said.

Ukrainian troops wearing camouflage gear and armed with automatic weapons and grenade launchers were stationed nearby, with a helicopter and several buses containing interior ministry personnel near the road.

Source: Reuters

The Guardian: Ukraine Crisis Five Possible Scenarios

        Ukrainian government uses force
Ukraine carries out its threat and uses the army to take on pro-Russian activists occupying government buildings in the east of the country. The risk is that moving against them will trigger large-scale violence and – asRussia has warned – even civil war. Many in eastern Ukraine already dislike the interim government in Kiev that replaced the administration of the former president Viktor Yanukovych, even if they are not separatists or active in the protest movement. Large-scale fighting could force the Ukrainian authorities to suspend the constitution and delay next month's presidential elections – a potentially important landmark. It could also trigger direct Russian intervention. "They are tempted to use force against the attackers," warned the Kiev-based analyst Mykola Riabchuk, "but must also be careful not to give an excuse for a Russian intervention."

     Russia intervenes directly

Having in effect annexed Crimea last month, Russia has repeatedly declared it has no intention of sending troops into Ukraine. The president, Vladimir Putin, will not want to risk starting a war. Still, the Duma has authorised him to intervene militarily if Moscow's interests are threatened, and Putin says these include Ukraine's Russian speakers – though the vast majority are ethnic Ukrainians. He could respond to a manufactured "appeal for help" from pro-Russian "compatriots", supporters of what he calls "federalisation". But a fully fledged invasion would be problematic: Ukrainian forces would be in a better position to resist Russia in mainland Ukraine than in Crimea, where Russian units were already stationed. Support for Russian action is also far weaker in Ukraine than in Crimea. Overall, Moscow wants Ukraine to stay weak and under its influence, and will try to avoid an election that produces a new president with a strong mandate and helps set Ukraine back on track to normality. Western governments have highlighted the presence of 35,000-40,000 Russian troops near the border with Ukraine equipped with combat aircraft, tanks, artillery and logistical support units. For the moment though, Russia's involvement looks more likely to remain covert, even if its denials are increasingly implausible.

   US and EU impose tougher sanctions

Highly likely. Washington has made clear that it will step up sanctions against Moscow if pro-Russian military actions in eastern Ukraine continue. Sanctions in energy, banking and mining could all be on the table. Russia's central bank has admitted to a net capital outflow of $63bn in the first three months of this year – as much as for the whole of 2013. Russia's exclusion from the G8 has already been a heavy blow to its prestige. "Putin's behaviour suggests he believes that the US and the EU have neither a concept for stabilising Ukraine nor the appetite to bail it out economically," said John Lough of Chatham House. "He also does not appear to take seriously the threat of strong western economic sanctions." But the EU remains divided. Germany is reliant on Russia for gas, France has defence contracts with the country, and there is heavy Russian investment in the UK finance industry. It will be harder to overcome those divisions in the absence of overt Russian intervention, rather than the less clear-cut situation of involvement behind the scenes.

Nato intervenes

Extremely unlikely. The alliance has repeatedly expressed concern about the Ukraine crisis. Anders Fogh Rasmussen, its secretary general, has called it "the greatest challenge to Europe's security in a generation" and warned of "grave consequences" if Russia were to invade. Nato needs to talk tough, especially after failing to prevent the annexation of Crimea.

Diplomatic options

In a complex and fast-moving situation it is hard to predict what will happen next. Four-party talks planned for Thursday in Geneva will be the first time since the start of the crisis that Russian, EU, US and Ukrainian leaders have met together. The growing unrest and destabilisation in eastern Ukraine is likely to strengthen Moscow's hand as it pushes for a political solution that serves its interests – and those of pro-Russian Ukrainian groups who want a new constitution creating a federal system of government with greater autonomy for the regions.

WSJ: Ukraine Military Operation Begins in East

10.59 ET    The Wall Street Journal reports,"armored Ukrainian units began moving into the county's restive east Tuesday as part of a military operation to take back control of cities seized by pro-Russian militants.

Soldiers riding aboard armored personnel carriers took up positions around the region at the heart of the unrest, setting up checkpoints along key roads, with transport helicopters parked in fields nearby. In the late afternoon, a Ukrainian official said shots were fired at a military airfield near the city of Kramatorsk, but no other clashes had been reported.

Acting President Oleksandr Turchynov said the "antiterrorist" operation began in the early morning hours in the northern part of the Donetsk region, where the majority of the cities commandeered by pro-Russian forces are located. He described it as "phased, responsible and balanced."

"The purpose of the actions, I stress once again, is to protect the citizens of Ukraine," he told Ukraine's parliament.

The Guardian: Ukrainian troops have begun 'anti-terrorist operation', Kiev says

       The Guardian reports,"Ukrainian troops were reported to be deployed outside a separatist-held city on Tuesday as the country's acting president claimed an "anti-terrorist operation" was under way".

An Associated Press reporter said at least 14 armoured personnel carriers with Ukrainian flags, one helicopter and military trucks were north of the eastern city of Slavyansk, where pro-Russian protesters took over key facilities on Saturday.

Government troops at a checkpoint outside the town of Izyum searched vehicles driving in and out for weapons.

Roads into Slavyansk were dotted with protester checkpoints, at least one with a Russian flag. Another bore a sign reading: "If we don't do it, nobody will."

The military moves came as western powers stepped up calls for Russiato act to end the crisis in Ukraine. The US president, Barack Obama, told his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, in a tense telephone call on Monday night that Moscow should use its influence to get separatists in the country to stand down. The US has also deployed additional fighter aircraft to the Baltic states and Poland.

The British foreign secretary, William Hague, on Tuesday warned Russia it faced being frozen out by the west for years if it did not stop destabilising Ukraine, and the Nato chief, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, joined the US and UK in issuing an urgent public call on Russia to de-escalate tensions in the Ukraine.

Hague said it defied common sense for Putin to deny that the storming of government buildings in eastern Ukraine had been carried out by Russians.

The mayor of Slavyansk, where pro-Russian armed men have seized police and security service buildings, said on Ukrainian television on Tuesday that troops from Russia and Crimea had been involved in the takeovers.

After a mob seized police headquarters in Horlivka on Monday, a man in camouflage appointed a new police chief, later identifying himself as a lieutenant colonel in the Russian army.

Pro-Russian protesters, many of them armed, continued to occupy government, police and other administrative buildings in at least nine cities in the country's Russian-speaking east of the country, demanding broader autonomy and closer ties with Russia. The central government has so far been unable to rein in the separatists, and many of the local security forces have switched to their side.

Early on Tuesday, pro-Russian separatists pulled out of one building they had occupied in Kramatorsk but then seized another in the same town, officials said.

Obama told Putin on Monday that the US preferred a diplomatic solution to the crisis but criticised Russia for taking actions that were not "conducive" to such a path. He said Kiev had made "real offers" to address concerns about the decentralisation of powers to local governments in the country, a senior US government official said.

In a sign of rising tensions, the Pentagon said on Monday that a Russian military fighter flew past a navy destroyer in the Black Sea 12 times over the weekend in a "provocative and unprofessional" move.

The unarmed fighter Su-24 aircraft, or Fencer, made 12 low-altitude passes of the USS Donald Cook on Saturday, coming within 1,000 yards of the vessel, according to the Pentagon. The incident lasted around 90 minutes and a Pentagon source said the USS Donald Cook "was never under threat" and was "more than capable of defending herself".

WSJ: Lukoil to sell its 50-percent stake in the Caspian Investment Resources Ltd to China's Sinopec.

       The Wall Street Journal reports,"LUKOIL OPTIMIZES HYDROCARBON ASSET PORTFOLIO IN KAZAKHSTAN"

"Vagit Alekperov, OAO LUKOIL President, signed a purchase and sale agreement today that allows the company to sell its 50-percent stake in the Caspian Investment Resources Ltd to China's Sinopec. The total price of the shares for sale will be around USD 1.2 billion and will be subject to a number of adjustments as of the closing date.

Caspian Investment Resources Ltd., through a number of joint ventures, owns various stakes in four hydrocarbon-production projects in Kazakhstan. LUKOIL's share in commercial hydrocarbon production as part of the above projects equaled 10.2 million BOE in 2013.

The transaction is meant to optimize LUKOIL's overseas hydrocarbon asset portfolio. The transaction closing is subject to a number of conditions precedent, specifically, the approval by the Kazakhstan state authorities. The complete closing of the transaction is expected before the end of 2014.

At the same time, LUKOIL will continue to participate in Kazakhstan hydrocarbon-production projects, including Kumkol, Karachaganak and Tengiz. The company is also a member of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium".

Chinese phone maker Xiaomi raked in $242 million in 12 hours during its day-long sales blitz

By now, most followers of Chinese phone maker Xiaomi are familiar with its weekly flash sales. Yesterday, however, the company held what might have been its flashiest ever flash sale – it doled out 1,300,000 phones in a twelve-hour period, helping it rake in sales revenues of about US$ 242 million, according to its Facebook and Weibo pages. As part of the “Mi Fan Festival,” Xiaomi offered up pre-designated quantities of its Mi3, Redmi (see our review here), and Redmi Note devices for customers in Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore, and mainland China. Starting at 10AM, the company offered up batches of its phones in two hour intervals, along with a wide range of discounted peripherals like earbuds and batteries. The sales blitz ended at either 8PM or 10PM depending on the region. Breaking it down For Taiwan, Xiaomi reported receiving NT$ 430 million (about US$ 14 million) in total sales revenues (that includes accessories), while clearing over 73,000 of its allotted 80,000 mobile devices (20,000 flagship Mi3 phones and 60,000 mid-range Redmis). Meanwhile, in Hong Kong, the company brought in HK$ 66 million (about $8.5 million) in total sales revenues, and cleared over 49,000 of its allotted 50,000 mobile devices (10,000 Mi3s and 40,000 Redmis). In Singapore, Xiaomi’s most recent destination, the company raked in S$ 2.28 million in total orders (about US$ 1.9 million). The company hasn’t revealed how many of its allotted 13,000 phones it sold, but it claims to have booked over 11,000 “orders” (including peripheral devices), and processed a record 16 orders per minute. That leaves us with mainland China. There, the company unsurprisingly brought in the majority of its revenues from the sales period, clocking in at approximately RMB 1.4 billion (about US$ 225 million – yes, we’re going to have to take those “abouts” seriously here). There, over 600,000 Redmis, 600,000 Redmi Notes, and 400,000 Mi3s were put up for sale, and while we can’t seem to dig up any statistics that confirm whether or not these batches sold out…. we think you get the point. (See: Founder Lei Jun Talks About Xiaomi, China’s Disruptive Phone-Maker [INTERVIEW]) Taking it with a grain of rice As much as we like to report on the company’s earth-shattering sales feats, we also like emphasize that one ought not to assess its health and prospects solely based on its sexy promotions. The company sells its phones (and phablets, now) at near-cost, and hasn’t yet ‘monetized’ as a company – hence its widely-touted ‘internet model’ of business, wherein it courts an audience first and then brings in profits later. While Xiaomi’s proven it can get its phones into users’ hands, it’s not yet clear how the company will earn money after that. Its recent investment in Chinese video streaming firm Xunlei hints that its future might lie in media. (See: Xiaomi rips off a Kickstarter project to give your smartphone an extra, configurable button) On the other hand, if you’re one for the horse races, consider this: In 12 hours, Xiaomi brought in revenues of $242 million – that’s about one-fifth of HTC’s revenues for its most recent quarter. Xiaomi’s agenda for 2014 include launches in Malaysia and India, where it hopes to broaden its customer base in an effort to surpass the 60 million mark for devices sold. 

 Source: TECHINASIA

Meet Kensuke Furukawa, the serial entrepreneur who founded Japan’s hottest lifehacking site

“When I was a high school student, I was in love with the internet,” says Kensuke Furukawa, CEO and co-founder of nanapi, a Japanese lifehack media site. Indeed he was. In 2000, 19-year-old Furukawa founded Milkcafe, an online bulletin board for students. Back then, he said it was very difficult to find information about universities and schools so he made an online forum for students to share information on the internet. It boomed. At its peak, Milkcafe garnered 10 million pageviews each month and was sold to CYBRiDGE for 10 million yen (US$100,000) in 2009. “We used open source technologies and got high school students to help us do the coding,” he says. “I didn’t think it could grow this big.” In 2003, Furukawa founded Shitaraba BBS, a forum built for the general public. In 2004, Furukawa met Takafumi Horie, CEO of Livedoor, an internet giant back then for a job interview but it turned out that Horie was more interested in Shitaraba BBS. Furukawa sold his website for about US$1 million and also took up the job to continue managing Shitaraba BBS. After graduating from Waseda University in 2006, Furukawa joined Japanese human resources company Recruit for three years. In 2009, he left the job to start nanapi together with former Rakuten engineer Shuichi Wada. Nanapi is Japan’s largest lifehack media site that has 28 million visitors and generates over 60 million pageviews every month. (See: How a high school dropout became a multi-millionaire entrepreneur) “Nanapi’s vision is to create more things you can do,” says Furukawa (pictured above). The website’s growth has been very impressive. In its first year, it attracted about 400,000 visitors each month. In 2012, it grew to 6.4 million and hit the tipping point in 2013 when it garnered 24 million visitors in a single month. “For a start, we have many writers who are very influential contributing to nanapi. They made a big buzz on social media and that got us to a good start,” says Kazuhide Harada, CMO at nanapi when asked about the website’s early growth strategy. “Mr. Furukawa is also a famous blogger that’s why he wrote articles by himself and the other bloggers contributed articles to nanapi.” Harada also shared that nanapi spends a lot of effort on SEO and social media. Today, nanapi still relies on the community to supply readers with fresh content. It has a crowdsourcing service for writers where it lists out all the articles it needs. Writers pick the stories and work on them. Nanapi’s editors will do the final edits before publishing. Every published article earns the writer a nominal fee of 300 yen (US$3.00). (See: Crowdsourcing platform Lancers produces $200 million freelancing gigs and it is still growing) In December 2013, nanapi launched Answer, a new Q&A mobile application. What’s unique is that content on Answer only stays for 24 hours. “Questions are usually about life problems and people don’t want to be reminded about it,” explains Furukawa. Answer has shown great promise so far with over 100,000 users generating a whopping 20 million pageviews. On average, users are spending 22 minutes on the application. In March 2014, nanapi launched IGNITION, an English site that authors long-form inspirational articles. It is nanapi’s shot at going global. “We want to be a global company and we are just starting to explore the world outside of Japan. Hopefully, we can get some good results,” says Furukawa. Nanapi’s team consists of about 30 full-time staff and 30 part-timers. In July last year, it raised $2.7 million from Globis Capital and KDDI’s Open Innovation Fund.

Source:TECHINASIA

This Japanese startup handles over 1 trillion bid requests every month

      Geniie is an ad tech startup founded by former Recruit employees Kudo Tomoaki, Hiroshi Hirose, and Takuya Yoshimura in April 2010. Its real-time bidding (RTB) ad network serves up to 20 to 30 billion impressions per month. If that number is not big enough, then this might impress you: each month, Geniee’s server processes about one trillion bid requests. Back in 2010, Tomoaki says RTB was a fairly new concept among publishers and advertisers in Japan. But because everyone sees an opportunity, a lot of ad networks mushroomed and the market was flooded. The market didn’t quite understand RTB though, and a lot of education has to be done. “The explanation part is tough. In the early days, we had to send consultants to explain to publishers and advertisers about how to use RTB in their business,” explains Tomoaki. Despite competition, Geniee stands tall today. It claims to be the leading ad network in Japan and has already started to explore markets overseas. In Hanoi, Vietnam, Geniee has a team of 10. Our company staff have the entrepreneurship spirit. Many of us are from Recruit and we always think about strategies to be ahead of our competitors. Our product is superior to our competitors’ because we have twice the amount of engineers compared to them. We collaborate with Waseda University’s research center to make new algorithms with the University students. (See: Adtech firms want to open up Asia’s advertising black box) To process one trillion bidding requests each month, Tomoaki is proud of his engineering team. Tomoaki claims that its server is 25 percent more efficient than AWS. “We used AWS two years ago. But we changed our server infrastructure to reduce our cost. We now have two data centers in Japan and we are thinking of expanding our data center outside of Japan. Our system can receive a lot more request than AWS.” In Japan, its server can match a bid to an auction within 0.1 second, but that becomes difficult outside of the country. That is why Tomoaki is planning to expand its servers beyond Japan. “We named our startup ‘genie’ because we want to make it feel like the product is magic. Speed is important,” he says.

Source: TECHINASIA

Will Japan's tax hike hobble the rest of Asia?

Japan's sales tax hike isn't just spurring concerns that its domestic economy may slow, some analysts worry the malaise may spread to other countries in the region.

Front-loading of spending by Japanese households to beat the consumption tax hike to 8 percent from 5 percent on April 1 "may have contributed to the healthy export performance of some of the non-Japan Asian (NJA) countries recently," Credit Suisse said in a note, adding the main spending beneficiaries were likely in the clothing, automobile and home electronics segments.

Economists widely expect Japan's household spending, as well as economic growth, will drop off in the wake of the tax hike, although forecasts vary widely.

"We expect economies that export a significant amount of discretionary consumer as well as transport and machinery products to Japan to be more vulnerable to the negative household spending shock," Credit Suisse said.

Exports from the Philippines and Thailand appear the most vulnerable to the likely downturn in Japanese household spending as a significant share of electronics and machinery products from these countries are used for domestic consumption and not for re-export, it said.

"Shipments to Japan represent a significant share of total exports from these two economies," it said, noting around 10 percent of Thailand's and 21 percent of the Philippines' merchandise exports go to Japan.

The Philippines' February exports climbed 24.4 percent on-year after rising 9 percent on-year in January, touching their highest level on a seasonally adjusted basis since the country first began compiling data in 1979, according to Credit Suisse estimates.

Source: NewsOnJapan

Elderly households seen exceeding 40 pct in Japan in 2035

The percentage of households headed by people aged 65 or over is expected to exceed 40 pct in 41 of Japan's 47 prefectures in 2035, a research institute affiliated with the Health, Labor and Welfare Ministry estimated Friday.

Based on the 2010 national census, the population and household projection by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research shows expected changes in the number of households every five years to 2035.

According to the data, the total number of households is seen peaking at about 53 million nationwide in 2020 and falling in all prefectures except Okinawa by 2035.

Source: Jiji Press

Japan mulls free provision of maglev technology to U.S.

The government is considering providing Japan's technology for a magnetically levitated train system to the United States without license fees, a government source said Sunday.

Tokyo is considering the possibility in order to realize a maglev high-speed train service linking Washington and Baltimore, Maryland, the source said.

Japan has also unofficially offered loans worth about 500 billion yen to help bring about the service, which is expected to require about 1 trillion yen of investment.

Source: Kyodo

SDF troops mobilized to fight bird flu outbreak in Japan

Self-Defense Forces troops were mobilized Monday to help fight an outbreak of avian influenza at a poultry farm in Kumamoto Prefecture, southwestern Japan.

Some 200 personnel from the Ground SDF's eighth division based in the city of Kumamoto helped cull chickens and bury them underground at the request of the prefectural government.

The move came after the H5 subtype virus was detected Sunday in broilers that died at the farm in the town of Taragi, the first outbreak of highly pathogenic bird flu in the country in three years.

A total of about 112,000 chickens are slated to be culled at the farm as well as another farm in the Kumamoto prefecture village of Sagara run by the same farmer.

Source: Jiji Press

China key to Argentina's energy development: business executive

Chinese expertise and financial support are crucial for Argentina to reduce energy import cost and become self-sufficient in energy production, an Argentine business executive said Friday.

In an interview with Xinhua, Gerardo Ferreyra, vice president of the construction firm Electroingenieria (Eling), said China's aid has helped the South American country save over 10 billion U.S. dollars every year in energy import.

Right now Eling and China Gezhouba (Group) Corporation are working together to build two hydroelectric dams, namely the Nestor Kirchner and Jorge Cepernic, in Argentina's southern Santa Cruz province.

As part of a 4.7 billion-dollar project financed by the China Development Bank (CDB) and insurance firm China Export & Credit Insurance Corporation (Sinosure), construction of the two dams reflected the importance of China-Argentina cooperation in energy projects, said the senior managerial staff.

"Significant support" from Gezhouba, the CDB and Sinosure have placed the project on the path to success, said Ferreyra.

Under the Argentina-China deal, the two sides work together in the construction, operation and maintenance of the two plants on the Santa Cruz River, with a combined output of 1,740 megawatts.

Ferreyra said China's help also has other implications for Argentina, noting, "The plants are going to generate savings in fuel and improvements in our central bank reserves, which will improve the conditions of governability."

With China's know-how and financial support, Argentina is confident that the dam project will help the government improve the people's livelihood, he said.

Argentina plans to build 10 more dams in other provinces to further tap its hydroelectric power.

Ferreyra said his company, together with Gezhouba, has been preparing for almost a year and is "ready to bid" for a 650-megawatt dam project in Neuquen province after the two dams are constructed.

"In every case, we will continue to work with Gezhouba and Chinese financing agencies," said Ferreyra.

Source: Xinhua

Green building under construction in Beijing

Announced in 2009 by then Chinese President Hu Jintao and U.S. President Barak Obama, the CABR zero consumption building is slated for completion in June 2014. Conducted under U.S.-China Building Energy Efficiency Consortium, this demo building utilizes some of the most cutting edge technologies employed by both American and Chinese green experts.

Compared with ordinary offices, this building is able to maintain comfortable indoor temperature without traditional heating in the winter and saves more than 50 percent of energy on cooling in the summer.

As a flagship environmental initiative, the project is funded in equal parts by China and the United States.

The government has also stepped in to aid the development of green buildings in China.

The CABR's demo building is the poster Child of energy efficient buildings. It is also an international project, because going greens needs worldwide collaboration.

Source: CCTV

Beijing home buyers eye suburban, overseas properties

Chinese mega cities housing turnover has shown a sharp fall in recent months. The just ended Beijing Spring Real Estate Expo was more about buyers checking out suburban homes and overseas properties than housing in downtown Beijing.

Some property developers are adopting a variety of new marketing strategies, including offering major discounts to attract home buyers.

Some projects in Fangzhuang, Yizhuang and Tongzhou offer an online discount of as much as 50 percent, said Cai Hongyan, president of Real Estate Media Group.

Affordable suburban homes are a preferred option for many buyers because of high property prices in Beijing.

"I still want to buy a home in Beijing. Elsewhere would be a little far. So I mainly look at homes in the suburbs," a buyer said.

New home prices in Beijing increased a modest 0.93 percent in March while annual growth topped 27 percent from a year ago. That's according to the China Index Academy. Some more affluent home buyers and investors at the expo also showed an interest in overseas markets, including the UK, Spain, Greece, and Cyprus.

"House prices in some countries are just a seventh of those in Beijing. Rental returns are much higher, too, at five to six percent. That's very competitive," an onlooker said.

Experts caution, however, that home buyers and investors must be aware of the risks involved in overseas purchases. They warn that some European countries are experiencing so-so recoveries, while others show signs of property bubbles.

China's CPI up 2.4% in March

China’s consumer price inflation increased 2.4-percent in March year on year, while factory prices continue to deflate, indicating weak demand and a cooling economy. 

March's 2.4-percent CPI reading was more than the 2 percent increase in February but just below the median forecast. Fresh food prices led the gains, though analysts say food inflation is showing signs of moderating. For the first quarter of 2014, the consumer price index climbed 2.3 percent annually, below this year’s government target of about 3.5 percent. 

Meanwhile, the producer prices index was down in annual terms for the 25th straight month, dropping 2.3 percent. That dip was slightly more than expected. But, one research note says, the prices of goods in China will remain stable this year.

Source: CCTV

WSJ: Life After TXU for Gas Buyouts

  The Wall Street Journal reports:

Long live Gas Deals.

The one on the slab is 2007's $45 billion buyout of TXU, now known as Energy Future Holdings and facing bankruptcy. With natural gas usually setting power prices in Texas, TXU was effectively a leveraged bet on gas. When the deal was announced, futures indicated that gas would average almost $8 a million British thermal units over the following five years. One shale boom and economic recession later, it actually averaged less than $5.50 and was heading down, hence Energy Future's lack of a clear one.

Today's front-month gas price is only about $4.60, and futures don't even breach the $5.50 level until late 2022. Yet private equity is coming back to gas, and with good reason.

This time, the focus is on the upstream: gas exploration and production. Encana, the Canadian gas producer, recently sold its interests in the Jonah field in Wyoming to TPG Capital, which also bought into TXU, for $1.8 billion. With the first quarter barely out of the way, private-equity acquisition volume of onshore, gas-weighted assets in North America, as opposed to those with oilier reserves, already is larger than for all of last year, according to data prepared by Joe McGerigle at research firm IHS. Annualized, it would equal the last four years combined.

Even more striking is the amount of gas output private equity has been buying: 323 million cubic feet a day, the highest since at least 2009. Meanwhile, private-equity investment in oily North American onshore assets has dwindled to almost nothing.

The latter are much more in demand from exploration-and-production companies. Recent history has conditioned most E&P firms to adopt the mantra of "oil good, gas bad." Oil prices have remained strong, while the shale boom has flattened long-term expectations for gas. The E&P sector has redeployed as much cash as possible toward oil. Indeed, that is how Encana will spend the proceeds from Jonah.

The IHS deals data confirm this. More than four-fifths of asset acquisitions by private equity since the start of 2013, measured in dollars paid or output, were gas-weighted. For other buyers, gas assets have accounted for less than 60% of output and less than one-third of dollar volume.

This also is reflected in deal multiples. Those on oil-weighted assets have risen from less than $17 a barrel of proven reserves in 2009 to more than $21 this year, according to IHS data. Gassier assets, though, have stayed stuck in a range of between $8 and $12 a barrel of oil equivalent. That is much different from TXU, whose stock was trading close to its all-time high when the bid arrived.

For private equity, this is a better situation: E&P firms are selling gas assets to finance their oil push. As Dan Pickering, chief investment officer of TPH Asset Management, says, "Put all this together and you have a buyer/seller bid-ask spread that is finally starting to move closer."

Furthermore, the outlook for gas prices is getting better. The harsh winter has left U.S. gas inventories at their lowest level in 11 years. Just four billion cubic feet of gas was injected into storage in the week ended April 4, about one-quarter of what analysts had expected. Meanwhile, the E&P sector's fascination with oil means that drilling for gas is moribund, and demand looks set to rise as petrochemical and export plants expand.

WSJ: Asian Shares Mostly Higher on Upbeat U.S. Sales Dat

       The Wall Street Journal reports,"Japanese and Australian stocks moved higher on Tuesday, recovering from heavy selling in recent sessions, while Hong Kong shares were lower ahead of Wednesday's headline growth figures from China".

""The region took a positive lead from the U.S., where Wall Street snapped a two-day losing streak on Monday, as investors welcomed a larger-than-expected rise in March retail sales—suggesting that consumer demand in the world's largest economy is reheating after a cold winter.

Japan's Nikkei was up 1% after the dollar rose 0.2% against the yen on Monday. The dollar was last steady at ¥101.87.

Elsewhere, Australia's S&P ASX  200 added 0.6%, South Korea's Kospi was up 0.1%, and Singapore's Straits Times Index added 0.8%"".

The main economic event this week for Asian markets will come on Wednesday morning, when China releases its first-quarter growth numbers. Persistent concerns over the state over the Chinese economy have weighed on stocks, especially in Hong Kong, where the Hang Seng  China Enterprises  Index is down 5.8% year-to-date.

Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect China's economy to post a 7.3% increase for the first three months of the year, below the official 7.5% expansion target.

Stocks in both Hong Kong and Shanghai were lower ahead of the growth numbers. The Hang Seng Index lost 0.4%, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index lost 0.6% and the Shanghai Composite fell by 0.6%.

Rwanda Genocide: The Art of Remembering and Forgetting. Applies to all Genocides. Siempre por nunca jamás.

  National Geographic
"Remembering is a tricky thing. It can release a river of volatile emotions that can drown you in sorrow or shame, and it can also unleash a torrent of vengeful anger. But forgetting is equally treacherous, lest those who were lost died in vain or the crucial lessons learned are not passed on to future generations. Rwandans of all walks of life navigate this complex riptide of emotion every day, each in his or her own way. It is far more art than science".

It not only applies to Rwanda, in Perú we had also a genocide in the 1980's till September 1992.Active extreme leftist terrorist groups Sendero Luminoso (The Shining Path) and the MRTA killed thousands of people,the military responded also with excesses too. The country was in chaos,the economy in shambles and people lived scared. This bloodshed should never be forgotten and this experience should be remembered and these hard lessons so dear in lives must be passed on to future generations. Always. Every Year.Siempre por nunca jamás.

IMF: To Build Resilience in Growth, Focus Must Turn to Structural Reforms

At the IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington D.C., policymakers’ concerns shifted from crisis recovery to achieving durable and high-quality growth.

      Interview to Tharman Shanmugaratnam Deputy Prime Minister of Singapore and Chair of the IMF’s International Monetary and Financial Committee 

1.The overarching theme is that we are in a new phase of the recovery. It’s most clear in the U.S., but Europe is past the worst although there's still some downside risk. Globally we are now four to five years out of the crisis. It requires a new balance in policymaking, focused on the medium term, and building resilience in growth and jobs.

The second important theme in our discussions had to do with financial stability. I'm not talking here about the legacy of the last crisis, which is still with us, such as the impaired bank balance sheets in Europe and elsewhere; but about new risks. With the recovery, we also see new risks. Yields are compressed in a whole range of risk assets. Some people think that is a positive because it is cheaper to borrow now, but we have to ask whether it is because risk has gone down or risk is being mispriced. Eventually rates will correct, and we get new instabilities.

Another risk is the rapid growth of corporate leverage, as several of my colleagues pointed out, both in the developing countries as well as in some of the advanced countries—not in Europe as much. Leverage has gone up, much more than investment has. These are new risks that we've got to keep a very close watch on.

And for emerging market economies, there's continuing risk of volatility in capital flows. It's not, in my opinion, a short-term phenomenon, it's not episodic. It's going to be with us for a while.

2.The mix of policies has to change. The basic macroeconomic measures to keep demand afloat remain important. But increasingly, our focus has to be on structural reforms because our aim should be to build not just quarter-to-quarter, year-to-year growth, but self-sustaining resilience in growth. And that can only come from structural reforms.

The world is operating at below potential output—everywhere in the advanced world, in the U.S., the U.K., Europe and Japan; many emerging countries too are still below potential output levels. There is by definition a shortage of demand. But the question is, how do we bridge that shortage for demand? If we rely solely on demand management, macroeconomic policy stimulus basically, it won’t do the trick.

The key at this stage of the recovery is to build long-term confidence into our economies. And that long-term confidence is going to come much less from macroeconomic policy than from better education, stronger institutions, a better and more predictable investment environment, matters that give long-term investors confidence in our economies. That's why the supply side featured a lot more in our discussions this time.

Demand-oriented policies still play a role, but it's the supply side that brings confidence at this stage of the recovery, confidence that can last.

3.The IMF is not just about macroeconomic and financial matters. It's ultimately about the well being of people. And when we talk about well being, we are talking about inclusivity, about people across a whole spread of occupations and sectors of our society doing better in their lives.

Poverty, itself, quite apart from inequality, is still a major challenge. When we talk about self-sustaining growth, it is the quality of growth that matters. It's not just a GDP growth number; it is about the quality of growth that can uplift lives across the whole spectrum of people in a society.

But how do we do it? How do we tackle a challenge that's not just a result of this crisis, but a whole new phase in the global economy where technology is doing some things that jobs used to do and where globalization itself, particularly for countries that are more advanced or middle income, is taking away jobs because they're redistributed elsewhere?

I think the key to it is what my Mexican colleague mentioned, which they call the redistribution of productivity. It's about raising skills and the productive potential of everyone, not just those in the most modern and advanced sectors, not just the professionals or the knowledge-based workers; but raising skills and productive potential of everyone so they can earn a better wage and earn their own success. That's the most sustainable way of improving inequality.

Source: IMFSurvey Magazine

Europe's Junk-Debt Market Peaks With Numericable's Planned Issuance

    The Wall Street Journal reports,"riskier companies are issuing debt at their fastest-ever clip in Europe, and now the market looks set to welcome its biggest offering on record.

Monday, French cable operator Numericable Group SA  started meeting with investors as it prepares to raise an equivalent of about €6 billion ($8.33 billion) from three chunks of high-yield, or junk, debt, denominated in both dollars and euros.

Demand for high-yield bonds has remained rampant in Europe this year, reflecting record low interest rates that prompt investors to load up on riskier debt that offer chunkier returns. Junk-rated companies have raised about €17 billion from euro-denominated deals since January, the most at this stage of the year on record and almost a third more than at this time in 2013, the previous fastest start to a year, according to Dealogic".

"That demand is also allowing companies with sub-investment grade credit ratings to snag their lowest ever borrowing costs. The average yield for euro-denominated junk bonds hit 4% last week, a record low, according to a Markit index".

"It's a very favorable environment to issue debt," said Arnaud Tresca, head of debt capital markets for high yield at BNP Paribas in London.

Numericable—a subsidiary of Luxembourg-based telecommunications group Altice SA—is seeking to raise funds to help finance Altice's €17 billion acquisition of Vivendi SA  's telecoms business SFR.

Altice, controlled by cable-tycoon Patrick Drahi, earlier this month won a fierce bidding war over SFR, France's second-largest mobile operator.

Greece's stock market has had impressive gains since June 2012 lows

"Greece's stock market has likewise posted impressive gains since the June 5, 2012 lows. As shown in the chart below, the Athens stock exchange has rebounded from a low of 471.25 in June 2012 to 1318.94 recently. That represents a 180% gain and an average annualized return of 78.7%. By comparison, the Dow Jones Europe Index is up 55.7% over that same time period, good for an annualized return of 28.4%".

(click to enlarge)

"If history is a guide, then the Greek market still has superior upside potential. The Athens stock index fell 91% from its November 2007 peak to its June 2012 low. It has since rebounded (as noted above) by 180%, but is still 75% below the November 2007 peak".

"Greece's stock market also looks quite cheap on valuation. According to the FT, Greece is the cheapest of all of the country equity markets on a P/E basis. The average P/E for Greece is only 3.0, whereas the average for all countries covered by the FT is 16.0. We have not conducted an analysis to determine whether any one-time or unusual circumstances account for Greece's exceptionally low P/E. One factor is undoubtedly the low 0.5% dividend yield on Greek stocks, well below the global average of 3.0%. Eurobank Research also noted in a December 2013 outlook report that low valuations on bank stocks have been a major drag on the overall stock market. As long as Greece's economic recovery remains on course, its stock market should have more rebound potential.

From a technical perspective, after such significant gains, the Athens stock index is due for a correction. From the longer-term charts, it looks like the Athex could run into resistance from 1400 to 1600, which was its trading range from June 2010 to April 2011. The low end of that range is just 6% above Friday's (3/14) closing level. Concerns about negotiations with the troika and potentially a shift in political power toward the left might be catalysts for a correction.

The Global X FTSE Greece ETF (GREK) is one of the few ways for U.S. investors to invest directly in Greece. GREK has roughly matched the performance of the Athens stock index, with a gain of 181.6% off of the June 2012 low and an annualized return of 79.4% over that period.

(click to enlarge)

Summary. Greece has made good progress since entering its bailout program, but it lags behind on many import reforms and now faces the more difficult task of trying to make its economy grow. As noted by Mr. Provopoulos, the government's agenda is full. Greece must reorganize its civil service operations to root out waste and inefficiency. It must modernize key ministries, like education, health care and justice. It must take further steps to improve the competitiveness of key business sectors, including rolling back rules that unfairly protect certain professions. It must also overhaul the tax system and strengthen enforcement mechanisms.

This will not be easy. But it looks like Greece has made it through the worst part of its economic downturn, so its citizens should be able to get a second wind and ward off austerity fatigue. While there undoubtedly will and should be give-and-take in the ongoing negotiations with the troika, Greece must remain steadfast in following through on its reform initiatives, because doing so will provide the best foundation for a sustainable economic recovery.

Editor's Note: This article covers a stock trading at less than $1 per share and/or with less than a $100 million market cap. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks".

Source: Seeking Alpha

Beware.  This is not an advice to invest on Greek stocks.

Each individual should do its homework, and should approach these information according to their own profile of risk.

Credit Suisse rates on International Airlines

The Governor of the Bank of Greece G. Provopoulos said on TV interview that NBG could tap private investors successfully if it chose to.

The National Bank of Greece, the country’s biggest lender, is planning to increase its share capital by as much as 2.1 billion euros ($2.9 billion) to cover a shortfall identified in the national regulator’s stress test, according to a person with knowledge of the matter.

The lender will decide on the proposal at a board meeting on April 15, said the person, who spoke of condition of anonymity because the plan is still being discussed.

On March 7, the bank said it would present a plan to address its capital shortfall without raising new equity. The Bank of Greece, which regulates the financial system, declined to accept that plan, according to two people with knowledge of the discussions with the commercial lender.

The governor of the Bank of Greece, George Provopoulos, said in an interview on Skai television station April 11 that the National Bank of Greece could tap private investors successfully if it chose to.

“National Bank is seizing the opportunity to benefit from the demand for Greek assets to recapitalize quickly, with the added bonus of implementing at its leisure an asset disposal plan that might otherwise have be done in a fire sale,” Thanassis Drogossis, head of equities at Pantelakis Securities in Athens, said in a telephone interview today.

National Bank’s board will propose an increase in the share capital of 2.1 billion euros through payment in cash and the cancellation of the pre-emption rights of the bank’s ordinary shareholders, includingGreece’s bank recapitalization fund HFSF, the person familiar said.

Source: Bloomberg April 13TH 2014

Marc Faber Thoughts on the U.S. Stock Market

""There are not many stocks that offer value  at the present time.
I would not buy stocks at the present time.
 I think that in a time horizon of 12 months, there can be a 20 or 30% correction
in the U.S. stock market".