Azerbaijan agrees with Shah Deniz Consortium to develop a pipeline and sales of gas to Europe

The Shah Deniz consortium,lead by BP,announced today that 25-year sales agreements have been concluded for just over 10 billion cubic metres a year (BCMA) of gas to be produced from the Shah Deniz field in Azerbaijan as a result of the development of Stage 2 of the Shah Deniz project. Nine companies will purchase this gas in Italy, Greece and Bulgaria.

The Shah Deniz Stage 2 project is set to bring gas directly from Azerbaijan to Europe for the first time, opening up the Southern Gas Corridor.

In total 16 BCMA of Shah Deniz Stage 2 gas will be delivered through more than 3500 kilometres of pipelines through Azerbaijan, Georgia, Turkey, Greece, Bulgaria, Albania and under the Adriatic Sea to Italy.

Today’s agreements for European gas sales follow the signing of agreements with BOTAS in 2011 to sell 6 BCMA of gas in Turkey.

“We are delighted that the years of negotiations led by SOCAR with multiple European companies have come to a successful conclusion. These agreements mark the biggest gas sales in the history of Azerbaijan. They also mark the beginning of direct links between Azerbaijan’s huge gas resources and the European markets. Azerbaijan is committed to long-term cooperation with the Shah Deniz gas purchasers said Rovnag Abdullayev, President of SOCAR.

Commenting on the agreements, Gordon Birrell, Regional President for BP in Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey, and President of the Operator of the Shah Deniz PSA, said: “The Shah Deniz consortium is proud to be involved in the conclusion of one of the biggest gas deals in the history of the oil and gas industry. On behalf of the Shah Deniz consortium, I would like to thank all the companies involved in these negotiations.The strong demand for Shah Deniz gas gives us confidence in the long-term development of Azerbaijan’s gas resources. Today’s signings represent another important milestone bringing us closer to a final investment decision on the Shah Deniz 2 project”.

The buyers who have today agreed to buy the gas are: Axpo Trading AG, Bulgargaz EAD, DEPA Public Gas Corporation of Greece S.A., Enel Trade SpA, E.ON Global Commodities SE, Gas Natural Aprovisionamientos SDG SA, GDF SUEZ S.A., Hera Trading srl and Shell Energy Europe Limited. Of the total 10 BCMA, around 1 BCMA will go to buyers intending to supply to each of Bulgaria and Greece and the rest will go to buyers intending to supply Italy and adjacent market hubs.

The completion of these agreements follows expressions of interest from many different companies for Shah Deniz gas and marks the completion of the Shah Deniz 2 gas sales process.

The gas sales agreements will enter into force following the final investment decision on the Shah Deniz Stage 2 project which is targeted for late this year.

The Shah Deniz co-venturers are: BP, operator (25.5 per cent), Statoil (25.5 per cent), SOCAR (10 per cent), Total (10 per cent), Lukoil (10 per cent), NICO (10 per cent) and TPAO (9 per cent).

Source: BP Press Release

EU Commission approves Vodafone takeover of Kabel Deutschland

Vodafone  won EU approval on Friday for its 7.7 billion euro ($10.43 billion) acquisition of Germany's largest cable company, Kabel Deutschland 

British group Vodafone - the world's second-largest telecoms operator - announced the deal in June, which will help the company to fend off rivals in its most important market.

"While Kabel Deutschland primarily offers cable TV, fixed line telephony and Internet access services, Vodafone's core busines consists of mobile telephony services EU Com

"While Kabel Deutschland primarily offers cable TV, fixed line telephony and Internet access services, Vodafone's core business consists of mobile telephony services," EU Comission  added.

Vodafone, which this month agreed the sale of its stake in U.S. operator Verizon Wireless for $130 billion, wants to buy Kabel Deutschland to offer more television and fixed-line services  in Germany, its largest European mobile market.

The British company last week said earlier this week it had secured 76.48 percent of Kabel Deutschland shares, which is above the 75 percent minimum acceptance condition it had set.

So-called "quad-play" services offering TV, broadband, mobile and fixed-line telephony have caught on rapidly in markets such as France and Spain, but the largely fragmented German cable market is still some way behind.

Source: Reuters

Gold and Silver,Profit taking

December Comex gold futures prices are solidly lower in early U.S. trading Friday, as shorter-term traders are taking some profits after the recent strong price gains. Prices are also seeing a downside technical correction after the big rally late this week. December Comex gold was last down $19.70 at $1,349.60 an ounce. Spot gold was last quoted down $15.30 at $1350.25. December Comex silver last traded down $0.747 at $22.545 an ounce.
European markets were quieter in overnight trading and China markets were closed for a holiday. India did surprise the market place with a hike in its key interest rate by 0.25% in an effort to curb inflation and support its currency, the rupee. But overall, the world market place is pausing to catch its breath after a very active 36 hours of trading following the surprise move by the U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday 

The U.S. budget and debt ceiling issues are looming and will be hotly debated by the U.S. Congress and the Obama administration the next few weeks. This will become the brakingnews matter for the market place, and one that could be significantly bearish for most markets, as there is already talk the U.S. government could shut down for a short time.

Technically, December gold futures bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The gold bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $1,400.00. Bears' next near-term downside breakout price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $1,300.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $1,368.40 and then at this week’s high of $1,375.40. First support is seen at Friday’s low of $1,346.20 and then at $1,336.00.  

December silver futures bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $24.25 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at this week’s low of $21.225. First resistance is seen at $23.00 and then at Friday’s high of $23.18. Next support is seen at the overnight low of $22.455 and then at $22.25.

Source  Jim Wyckoff   Kitco Metals

Kitco  Metals

Copper futures slip after Bullard's comments

Copper futures slipped in thin trading on Friday, easing after a Federal Reserve official said the U.S. central bank may cut back on its stimulus next month.

The most actively traded copper contract, for December delivery, recently traded down 1.5 cents, or 0.5%, at $3.332 a pound on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Copper had surged the prior trading session, rallying along with equities and some other commodities after the Federal Reserve's decision late Wednesday to keep its $85 billion-a-month bond-buying program steady.

The Fed's stimulus programs drew buyers to copper on the belief that it will accelerate growth, and, in turn, metals demand. Copper is used in a wide range of manufactured products.

But James Bullard, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, said on Bloomberg TV Friday that "a small taper is possible in October." Mr. Bullard said the Fed's decision to stand pat this week, which surprised many market participants, was "borderline."

After FOMC decision Asian markets are looking for IPO's and fundraising issuing bonds

With the Fed decision to postpone its tapering of his bond buying program.
"With economic fundamentals still weak in some places and investors expecting the Fed to act later this year, companies are trying to seize what could be a brief window in which to do deals. This week saw the most new share sales in Asia since May, while companies outside of Japan have sold US$15 billion of bonds so far this month, the largest amount in four months.

The run of deals comes after a choppy three months, when Asian countries from Indonesia to India were hit by heavy selloffs in their stocks, bonds and currency markets as investors anticipated a tapering of the Fed's quantitative-easing program, which had flooded the world with cash.
For the many Chinese companies looking to list, Hong Kong is the only option because mainland China stopped approving new listings last October amid flagging share prices. Hong Kong's stock market has rallied 8.2% since September, boosting the allure of new offerings. 
For now, the pipeline of stocks and bonds looks healthy, the strongest in months. China state-owned energy company China General Nuclear Power Corp. plans to issue a benchmark U.S. dollar bond, which would be at least $500 million, according to a person familiar with the situation. And Korean companies including Woori Bank are lined up to issue bonds next week, with at least $2.5 billion of funds scheduled to be raised, according to a person close to the planned deals".according to the Wall Street Journal.

Federal Reserve officials created new uncertainty

   In an article published today in the Wall Street Journal says that after the press release of the FMOC:
Fed officials have created new uncertainties, about how long they will keep with easy money.
In the news Conference after the FMOC meeting,Mr Bernanke seemed to have change his mind
on his guidance given in June,where he said that the bond buying program would end in 2014.
Now Mr Bernanke said ''Wednesday that he thought the decision not to begin pulling back on bond purchases was right given a weaker economy than the Fed expected a few months ago and one facing new threats from a fiscal showdown in Washington. He also said the Fed might still proceed with a pullback in the months ahead if the economy cooperates.

In his defense, Mr. Bernanke said that he has never said the Fed would start the pullback in September and that the decision always depended on the economy's vigor. "I don't recall stating that we would do any particular thing in this meeting," Mr. Bernanke said at the news conference.

Germany´s top economic adviser we have to rethink our country´s energy policies

Germany's top economic adviser has called for a radical rethink of the country's energy policies, warning that the green dream is going badly wrong as costs spiral out of control. "We need a drastic policy shift," said Christoph Schmidt, chairman of Germany's Council of Economic Experts. "They haven't paid any attention to costs. These are now huge." The government has vowed to break dependence on fossil fuels and source 50% of all electricity from wind, solar and other renewables by 2030, and 80% by mid-century. But cost estimates have reached €1trn (£840bn) over the next 25 years, The Daily Telegraph says. 

Warren Buffet supports Ben Bernanke

Billionaire investor Warren Buffett has compared the Federal Reserve to a hedge fund, as he supported keeping Ben Bernanke in charge of the US central bank. The 82-year-old, who has led Berkshire Hathaway for more than four decades, hailed the Fed's ability to make money from bond purchases as a result of quantitative easing, which in five years has more than tripled its balance sheet to more than $3.6trn. "The Fed is the greatest hedge-fund in history," he said, according to The Daily Telegraph.

SPAIN RATING MAY BE DUE FOR UPGRADE BEFORE YEAR-END

Not long ago, investors were wondering what would happen if Spain's credit rating was reduced to "junk bond" level in the wake of a succession of reductions to the rating from the leading agencies Standard & Poor ("BBB") and Moody's ("Baa3"). 

But if in the past, analysts and investors did not want anything to do with Spain, they are now beginning to show strong support for the country (the last evidence of which was the "Viva España" report from Morgan Stanley). If this is the current case, then the credit ratings agencies could start to share the same opinion.

Citing sources in the banking sector, specifically financial institutions that work with the Treasury, the Spanish newspaper Expansión reported on Friday that this "change in outlook" has resulted in the public entity and many others in the financial sector to expect "S&P to improve their outlook for Spain's rating to stable prior to the end of the year". Specifically, the president of the Centre for Economic and Politic Research (CEPR), Guillermo de la Dehesa, believes that the agency "is waiting for publication of the official fourth quarter figures that will confirm if the economy has reached the bottom".

Back in June, the company noted that they would be able to revise their outlook on Spain to stable "if we continue to see improvements to the external situation of the economy, at the same time as returning to growth, or if the structural and fiscal reforms, in addition to the support received from the Eurozone, stabilise the credit metrics". 

Source:  LiveCharts

Bank of India hikes interest rate

the Reserve Bank of India [RBI] surprised markets with a 25 basis-point rise in its main policy rate but unwound some short-term tightening measures.

The Bank changed its main policy rate to 7.5% from 7.25% in an attempt to curb inflation which reached a six-month high of 6.1% earlier this week. 

"Bringing down inflation to more tolerable levels warrants raising the repo rate by 25 basis points immediately," RBI President Raghuram Rajan said.

Source: Livecharts

Precious Metals Prices 8.12 a.m. Eastern Time

Gold Price Futures     3 months    US$  1,253.70

Silver Price Futures    3 months    US$      22.62

Password addio: ci faremo riconoscere con le impronte, la voce e il pensiero

Apriti, Sesamo: quanto è fragile l’attuale sistema per autenticarsi online? Estremamente fragile. Colpa innanzitutto delle password facili da ricordare, ma al tempo stesso molto semplici da indovinare per hacker o utenti malintenzionati. Una regola di base: per garantire una maggiore sicurezza i codici d’accesso devono essere lunghi, complicati e sostituiti con frequenza. In altre parole: difficili da ricordare. Ma non sempre è sufficiente. I colossi dell’informatica stanno lavorando a futuristici sistemi: l’accesso biometrico, il riconoscimento facciale e quello vocale. Alcuni ricercatori studiano persino l'uso delle onde cerebrali. La promessa: un metodo per ovviare in modo semplice ed efficace ai furti delle informazioni personali (ed aziendali) ad opera dei cybercriminali. E che sia privo di vulnerabilità. 
 La prima è stata Apple che per il suo iPhone 5s ha sdoganato il lettore d'impronte digitali per sbloccare il telefono senza dovere impostare un codice. Pure Htc, Lg e Samsung hanno riferito di voler dotare i loro prossimi dispositivi con sensori di impronte digitali simili.Microsoft ha annunciato che la prossima versione del suo sistema operativo (Windows 8.1), in uscita il prossimo mese, sarà ottimizzata per le tecnologie di lettura biometriche. Poi ci sono Google, PayPal, Lenovo: le società si sono riunite in un consorzio battezzato Fido (Fast Identity Online) che intende creare un hardware «autenticatore» e standard per permettere di ridurre la dipendenza dalle password. L'idea: un hardware in grado di identificarsi presso i siti Internet in modo non falsificabile; l'utente si fa riconoscere non direttamente dal sito, ma dal device stesso. 
E parlando di futuro prossimo, un gruppo di ricercatori dell'Università di Berkeley, in California, sta studiando addirittura l'uso di onde cerebrali per l'autenticazione. I soggetti nello studio hanno indossato delle speciali cuffie in grado di misurare i segnali provenienti dal cervello mentre immaginavano di compiere una determinata azione. In teoria, pensare a una particolare azione potrebbe addirittura diventare il nuovo concetto di password: i ricercatori sono infatti riusciti a distinguere le persone con un'accuratezza del 99 per cento.

Corriere della Sera

Precious Metals Prices 19.09.13 10.34 Eastern Time

Gold Price Futures     3 months    US$  1,364.64

Silver Price Futures    3 months    US$       22.96

China's FDI has great growth potential

The rapid growth in Chinese overseas investment has caught much global attention but can hardly cover its actually small stock. As the Economist magazine described, China is "a relative newcomer to big direct investments."

Chinese official data showed China's external direct investment hit a record of 87.8 billion U.S. dollars in 2012, making it the third largest country in outbound FDI following the United States and Japan.

However, in terms of stock, the accumulated volume of Chinese overseas investment reached 531.94 billion dollars, about one tenth of that of the United States, one third of Germany, and half of Japan.

UN statistics showed the inward FDI in China hit 121 billion dollars in 2012, 38 percent higher than the outward FDI, while the stock of the inward FDI has exceeded 1.3 trillion dollars, 2.5 times more than that of the outward FDI.

Therefore, there is a great space for the growth of China's outward FDI in the future.

As of now, the Chinese economy is at a turning point, where the economic model is shifting from export and investment driven growth to the one powered by domestic demand.

At the same time, China is seeking to climb from the end of the global value chain, featuring low costs and profits, to high productivity and high added value end.

The UN World Investment Report 2013 pointed that the global value chain occupies about 80 percent of global trade, "longer-term, GVCs (global value chain) can be an important avenue for developing countries to build productive capacity, including through technology dissemination and skill building, opening up opportunities for industrial upgrading."

Source: Xinhua

Japan land prices fall at slowest pace in five years

Japan's land prices fell the least since the global financial crisis in the year to July 1, while commercial land in the three biggest cities rose in value for the first time in the same period, the latest signs that deflation is easing its stubborn grip on the country.

Land prices nationwide fell 1.9 percent, narrowing from the previous year's 2.7 percent decline and the smallest drop since 2008, a government survey showed on Thursday.This brings Japan closer to ending 22 years of falling land prices - a legacy of the country's massive 1980s asset bubble.
The gradual narrowing of land-price declines is good news for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, whose top priority is ending Japan's long battle with deflation and spurring sustained growth with an expansionary policy mix of monetary, fiscal and structural reform measures.
The latest land ministry data already show how uneven the real-estate improvement has been, with rises limited to the best properties in the choicest areas.
Commercial land prices in the greater Tokyo, Osaka and Nagoya areas ticked up 0.6 percent, and residential land in Nagoya - home of Toyota Motor Corp (7203.T) - rose 0.7 percent, the first such increases since prices tumbled in the wake of Lehman Brothers' collapse.
Overall land prices in cities surrounding the three largest cities also edged up by 0.1 percent.

In Golden Week Holliday China Railway Corp will carry more than 10 million people

China's railway will carry more than 10 million people on the peak day during the coming National Day Holiday, said the China Railway Corporation on Thursday.

From Sept. 28 to Oct. 7, the daily passenger volume will reach 8.1 million on average, up by 10.9 percent, or an increment of 5.73 million passengers from a year earlier, it said in a statement.

The seven-day National Day Holiday, also called "Golden Week," starts on Oct. 1.

Around 9.14 million people travelled by train on the peak day during last year's National Day Holiday, the highest daily passenger volume so far.

This year, the peak is expected to fall on Oct. 1, with about 10.1 million passengers carried by trains. Thirty-one pairs of additional trains will be put into temporary service during the holiday to cope with the surging demand, according to the statement.

Source: Xinhua

Japan firms' mood dips; export growth fastest in three years

Confidence among Japanese manufacturers slipped in September from a three-year high on worries about a slowdown in emerging markets, although the fastest growth in exports since late 2010 suggested the economy is still building momentum.

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's reflationary policies and central bank stimulus weakened the yen through much of the first half of 2013, and exports look to be benefiting from that as demand starts to pick up in major economies.

But the weaker yen also increased the import bill and pushed the trade balance into a 14th successive deficit in August, matching a record streak in 1979/80 and suggesting the old export-led model of growth needs to be reviewed.

"I cannot foresee an end to trade deficits, although exports will continue to pick up due to a weak yen and improvement in Europe," said Takuya Hoshino, economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute.

"Business sentiment was down reflecting slowdown in emerging economies and the impact of a weak yen boosting import costs, but still it is at high levels. Today's data confirms an economic recovery continuing towards early next year."

A monthly Reuters poll, which is strongly correlated with the Bank of Japan's tankan poll, showed sentiment among manufacturers fell to plus 12 in September, its lowest since May, from a three-year high of 16 in August.

TPP partners eye copyright rules

Participating countries in Trans-Pacific Partnership trade pact negotiations have agreed to introduce strict rules aimed at cracking down on counterfeit and pirated products in the field of intellectual property rights, sources close to the multilateral talks said.

The introduction of stricter rules will do much to curtail the distribution of lower-priced fake products, a move likely to make it easier for Japanese corporations to sell their goods at regular prices, according to observers.The protection of intellectual property rights has been one of the contentious issues addressed during the 12-country free trade talks.
During the TPP negotiations, Japan urged other Pacific Rim countries to adopt rules as rigid as the Anti-Counterfeiting Trade Agreement, to which about 30 countries, including the United States and Canada, are signatories. Vietnam, Malaysia and three other emerging economies, none of which have signed the ACTA pact, also agreed to introduce stricter rules on intellectual property rights protection, according to the sources.
Japan, the proponent of the ACTA treaty, is the only one to have fully ratified the pact. The government is currently bolstering regulations on copyright infringement through such measures as law amendments. For instance, the Copyright Law was revised to outlaw the act of duplicating DVDs and other digital media by deactivating protection codes.
Criminal punishments are also possible for secretly recording movies under a law drafted by a group of Diet members. Intellectual property rights infringement is checked not only on imports, but also exports of products, to prevent counterfeit items produced abroad from being sold in third countries

NewsOnJapan

Economistas criticam protecionismo do Brasil

O Brasil precisa ter uma economia menos fechada ao comércio internacional se quiser continuar crescendo de forma sustentável. Esta é a análise dos especialistas que participaram do primeiro dia do Fórum Nacional, organizado pelo Instituto Nacional de Altos Estudos (Inae), no Rio. Para o presidente do conselho do Instituto de Estudos para o Desenvolvimento Industrial (Iedi), Pedro Passos, o modelo de desenvolvimento brasileiro baseado na expansão do crédito já dá sinais de esgotamento. Segundo ele, a desaceleração da economia chinesa, mesmo que inferior à prevista por economistas, deve ter reflexo sobre o ciclo de commodities, afetando o Brasil.

Valor Economico

Japan:Rough road ahead for linear Shinkansen

Construction of the Linear Chuo Shinkansen line is expected to experience difficulties as 86 percent of the 286-kilometer line between Tokyo and Nagoya runs through tunnels.

"We'll overcome [difficulties] with new technology," Central Japan Railway Co. (JR Tokai) President Yoshiomi Yamada has said. However, many problems remain to be solved.JR Tokai announced Wednesday details of the route and stations of the magnetic levitation (maglev) train line, which is scheduled to start services in 2027.
Construction of the Linear Chuo Shinkansen line between Tokyo (Shinagawa) and Nagoya is estimated to cost about ¥5 trillion, and another ¥4 trillion will be necessary to extend the line to Osaka. JR Tokai will shoulder the entire cost. "The project won't pay for itself," Yamada said.
If the line is built based on the law for Shinkansen railways development, JR Tokai will be able to receive a subsidy from the government. However, because new Shinkansen lines in other areas will be constructed first, JR Tokai decided to build the linear Shinkansen line at its own expense.
"If we wait for public funds, we'll never be able to start the construction," a JR Tokai official said.
However, the cost to construct the Linear Chuo Shinkansen line is too much for the company, which has to make major renovations to its Tokaido Shinkansen line. JR Tokai also has long-term debt that it inherited from the now-defunct Japanese National Railways.
Therefore, JR Tokai decided to build the maglev train line in two stages. The company will first start services between Tokyo and Nagoya and then begin to extend the line to Osaka after it regains financial strength.

Source: NewsOnJapan

Brasil: ANP divulga empresas interessadas no pré-sal

A Agência Nacional do Petróleo, Gás Natural e Biocombustíveis (ANP) divulgou nesta quinta-feira a lista das 11 empresas cadastradas para participação no leilão do prospecto de Libra, no pré-sal da Bacia d

Gigantes

As petroleiras britânicas BP e BG e as norte-americanas ExxonMobil e Chevron não vão participar do leilão. A diretora-geral da ANP, Magda Chambriar, já havia informado sobre a negativa das três primeiras.

Ela contou ter recebido ligações de representantes das empresas informando que não participariam do leilão, marcado para 21 de outubro, por motivos específicos. A diretora informou que esperava todas as companhias, as chamadas "A" e as "B" para o leilão e previa participação de até 40 companhias.

As empresas classificadas como "A" são aquelas com experiência já comprovada em exploração e produção em águas profundas, ultra-profundas, águas rasas e terra. Já as empresas do tipo "B" são as que têm experiência apenas em águas rasas e terra.

Se inscreveram na ANP e pagaram a taxa de R$ 2 milhões as empresas chinesas CNOOC International Limited e China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC); a japonesa Mitsui; a colombiana Ecopetrol; a indiana ONGC Videsh; a portuguesa Petrogal; a Petrobras; a malaia Petronas; a hispano-chinesa Repsol-Sinopec; a anglo-holandesa Shell; e a francesa Total.

ANP

Destinazione Italia, segnale forte al mondo

«Destinazione Italia è un piano di attrazione degli investimenti a cui diamo molta importanza, ci sarà una consultazione pubblica con soggetti istituzionali e pubblici, è importante dare un segno forte al mondo di coloro che sono interessati a fare investimenti economici e finanziari». Così il premier Enrico Letta, nel presentare a palazzo Chigi il provvedimento appena varato dal Cdm. «Cominceremo anche un road show nelle principali piazze finanziarie ed economiche, la cui prima tappa sarà l’incontro a Wall Street la prossima settimana, a cui seguirà una tappa nei Paesi del Golfo il 7-8-9 ottobre».

IL MODELLO - «Il nostro Paese non ha paura della globalizzazione, anzi vogliamo stare in questo sistema, con un modello che non è né l’outlet, in cui si svende tutto a poco prezzo, né forte Apache, in cui si difende con le unghie e coi denti tutto ciò che è italiano», ha aggiunto il premier che ha spiegato come domani il Consiglio dei ministri approverà «la nota di variazione al Def». Con il piano «inizia un percorso di privatizzazioni» che riguarderà «cose che è giusto privatizzare perché non sempre privato è meglio del pubblico», come si è visto in esempi passati. 

La Fed fait-elle une erreur de politique monétaire ?

La Réserve fédérale américaine (Fed) a donc pris à contre-pied la grande majorité des investisseurs qui escomptait un ralentissement des injections de liquidité.

La décision est tellement surprenante qu'elle génère deux types de risque. A court terme, elle rend sa politique monétaire non conventionnelle moins lisible et crée un facteur d'incertitude susceptible de générer des accès futurs de volatilité sur les marchés financiers.

Ainsi, si les statistiques de l'emploi s'améliorent sensiblement en octobre, les investisseurs pourraient considérer que la banque centrale américaine est en retard dans son processus de normalisation monétaire. Les tensions sur les taux d'intérêt resurgiraient alors.

Inversement, des statistiques décevantes pourraient nourrir l'idée qu'elle s'inquiète réellement des perspectives de croissance de l'économie américaine et, in fine, générer des mouvements d'aversion au risque chez les agents économiques. A moyen terme, lier cette politique non conventionnelle à des données potentiellement volatiles et imparfaites – après tout le taux de chômage est une variable retardée de l'état de l'économie et son niveau naturel est "inconnu" – fait peser le risque d'une erreur de politique monétaire.

Le Monde

Eurosceptical party is on the brink of entering the German parliament for the first time

 A new Eurosceptical party is on the brink of entering the German parliament for the first time, an opinion poll showed, casting doubt on Chancellor Angela Merkel's bid to maintain her centre-right coalition and complicating here euro zone  policy.

Merkel still looks set to secure a third term in Sunday's general election. But the Alternative for Germany (AfD), which has risen on a tide of public hostility to bailouts of indebted southern euro zone countries, could further fragment the lower house, forcing her into a right-left "grand coalition".

A breakthrough for the party, which advocates forcing weaker members out of the single currency area, would send shock waves around Europe and could spook financial markets, even though its voice in parliament would be small.

If the AfD becomes the first new party to enter the Bundestag since 1990, Merkel would probably have to negotiate a coalition with the pro-European opposition Social Democrats (SPD), with whom she governed in 2005-2009.

The ruling Christian Democrats (CDU) had tried to ignore the AfD, but abruptly changed tack this week and deployed respected Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble to attack the sceptics, who want Greece and other bailout recipients out of the euro.

Source: Reuters

Syrian Conflict, France could provide arms to rebels

French President Francois Hollande suggested for the first time on Thursday that Paris could arm Syrian rebels in a "controlled framework," given that they were now caught between the Syrian government on one side and radical Islamists on the other.

Noting that Russia was supplying arms to the Syrian government, Hollande, speaking in Mali, said France could provide arms to rebels, "but we will do it in a broader context with a number of countries and in a framework that can be controlled because we cannot accept that weapons could fall into the hands of jihadists that we have fought against here."

Hollande spoke at a news conference in Bamako where he was attending a ceremony to mark the swearing-in of the country's new president.