Friday, 14 February 2014
L'origine de la St-Valentin
| Depuis le IIIe siècle, le 14 février s'est transformé en fête pour les amoureux. St-Valentin , patron des amoureux, est en fait un prêtre mort martyrisé par les Romains, le 14 février 270. À cette époque Valentin s'attira la colère de l'empereur Claude II qui venait d'abolir le mariage, car il trouvait que les hommes mariés faisaient de piètres soldats parce qu'ils ne voulaient pas abandonner leur famille. |
Dans certains pays, la fête de la St-Valentin vient d'une croyance médiévale européenne qui dit que les oiseaux commencent à s'accoupler le 14 février.
À l'origine fête de l' Église catholique , le jour de la Saint-Valentin n'aurait pas été associé avec l'amour romantique avant le haut Moyen Âge .
Aujourd'hui, le jour de la Saint-Valentin , le 14 février , est considéré dans de nombreux pays comme la fête des amoureux. Les couples en profitent pour échanger des mots doux et des cadeaux comme preuves d'amour ainsi que des roses rouges qui sont l'emblème de la passion . On estime qu'environ un milliard cartes de vœux sont expédiées chaque année à l'occasion de la Saint Valentin. Chiffre battu seulement par le nombre de cartes échangées lors des fêtes de Noël . On estime aussi que 85% de ces cartes sont achetées par des femmes. Il ne faut pas négliger aussi que la St-Valentin est aussi une fête pour célébrer l'amitié.
Les Feuilles Mortes_Yves Montand à l´Olympia
Les Feulles Mortes chanté par Yves Montand une
hommage pour aujord´hui le jour de la Saint-Valentin
Oh je voudrais tant que tu te souviennes
Des jours heureux où nous étions amisEn ce temps là, la vie était plus belle
Et le soleil plus brûlant qu'aujourd'hui
Les feuilles mortes se ramassent à la pelle
Tu vois je n'ai pas oublié
Les feuilles mortes se ramassent à la pelle
Les souvenirs et les regrets aussi
Et le vent du nord les emportet
Dans la nuit froide de l'oubli
Tu vois, je n'ai pas oublié
La chanson que tu me chantais
C'est une chanson, qui nous ressemble
Toi tu m'aimais, et je t'aimais
Et nous vivions tout les deux ensemble
Toi qui m'aimais, moi qui t'aimais
Mais la vie sépare ceux qui s'aiment
Tout doucement sans faire de bruit
Et la mer efface sur le sable
Le pas des amants désunis
C'est une chanson, qui nous ressemble
Toi tu m'aimais et je t'aimais
Et nous vivions, tous deux ensemble
Toi qui m'aimait, moi qui t'aimais
Mais la vie sépare ceux qui s'aime
Tout doucement sans faire de bruit
Et la mer efface sur le sable
Le pas des amants désunis.
China to keep ban on Valemaxes in new port rules that start from July 1
China will only allow ships with capacity of up to 250,000 deadweight tonnes to berth at its ports from July 1, its transport ministry said, effectively keeping a ban on Brazilian miner Vale's huge iron ore vessels in place since January 2012.
It would be the latest setback for the world's top iron ore producer which has been hoping China, the biggest buyer of the raw material, would lift the ban aimed at shielding its shippers.
Vale invested more than $2 billion to build several 400,000-dwt vessels to slash transport costs to China by up to a third and better compete with Australian rivals Rio Tintoand BHP Billiton .
The expansion of Chinese ports has been "irrational" and they now need to shed capacity to meet a number of requirements, including the maximum capacity limit of 250,000 dwt on ships allowed to berth, according to a statement posted on the Ministry of Transport's website on Feb. 10.
The new rules will come into effect from July 1, the statement said, adding "every port authority must direct port enterprises to restructure terminals in accordance with the requirements of large-scale shipping development."
While the Chinese ban does increase Vale's freight cost, deployment of these ships is not a problem since it is able to call on other ports, said Jayendu Krishna, director at shipping consultancy Drewry Maritime Advisors.
"In the overall scheme of things considering the global distribution of iron ore, cost implication probably will not be too great," said Krishna.
There are 30 Valemaxes sailing currently, some owned by Vale and the rest by other operators. Vale has said it was losing $2-$3 per tonne in iron ore shipping costs because of the Chinese ban.
Due to the ban, the miner set up a transshipment terminal in the Philippines in February 2012 where the Valemaxes can transfer iron ore into smaller ships bound for China. It is also building an iron ore storage and distribution hub in Malaysia, expected to start operations this year.
The ships have also been docking at other ports, including in Italy, Japan, Oman and South Korea, said Krishna.
'PATIENCE'
In August, the transport ministry said in a draft document published on its website that ports may be allowed to receive ships based on the inherent capacity of their infrastructure, pending regulatory approvals. The ministry then sought feedback from the local marine industry.
Three months later, the official Xinhua news agency reported that China's state-owned Shandong Shipping Corp signed a $500 million deal with Vale to operate four of the Valemaxes.
China barred the Valemaxes from its ports about a month after the first of the giant vessels docked at Dalian port in December 2011. But a Valemax managed to dock at China's Lianyungang port in April last year.
Besides Dalian and Lianyungang, other ports that may be able to accept Valemax vessels include Dongjiakou and Caofeidian, as well as Zhanjiang and Ningbo Zhoushan, which are under construction, industry sources said.
Most of the ships were built in Chinese shipyards and partly financed by the country's international development bank.
In December last year, officials at Vale said the acceptance of these giant vessels in China's ports will require "patience."
Source: Reuters
It would be the latest setback for the world's top iron ore producer which has been hoping China, the biggest buyer of the raw material, would lift the ban aimed at shielding its shippers.
Vale invested more than $2 billion to build several 400,000-dwt vessels to slash transport costs to China by up to a third and better compete with Australian rivals Rio Tinto
The expansion of Chinese ports has been "irrational" and they now need to shed capacity to meet a number of requirements, including the maximum capacity limit of 250,000 dwt on ships allowed to berth, according to a statement posted on the Ministry of Transport's website on Feb. 10.
The new rules will come into effect from July 1, the statement said, adding "every port authority must direct port enterprises to restructure terminals in accordance with the requirements of large-scale shipping development."
While the Chinese ban does increase Vale's freight cost, deployment of these ships is not a problem since it is able to call on other ports, said Jayendu Krishna, director at shipping consultancy Drewry Maritime Advisors.
"In the overall scheme of things considering the global distribution of iron ore, cost implication probably will not be too great," said Krishna.
There are 30 Valemaxes sailing currently, some owned by Vale and the rest by other operators. Vale has said it was losing $2-$3 per tonne in iron ore shipping costs because of the Chinese ban.
Due to the ban, the miner set up a transshipment terminal in the Philippines in February 2012 where the Valemaxes can transfer iron ore into smaller ships bound for China. It is also building an iron ore storage and distribution hub in Malaysia, expected to start operations this year.
The ships have also been docking at other ports, including in Italy, Japan, Oman and South Korea, said Krishna.
'PATIENCE'
In August, the transport ministry said in a draft document published on its website that ports may be allowed to receive ships based on the inherent capacity of their infrastructure, pending regulatory approvals. The ministry then sought feedback from the local marine industry.
Three months later, the official Xinhua news agency reported that China's state-owned Shandong Shipping Corp signed a $500 million deal with Vale to operate four of the Valemaxes.
China barred the Valemaxes from its ports about a month after the first of the giant vessels docked at Dalian port in December 2011. But a Valemax managed to dock at China's Lianyungang port in April last year.
Besides Dalian and Lianyungang, other ports that may be able to accept Valemax vessels include Dongjiakou and Caofeidian, as well as Zhanjiang and Ningbo Zhoushan, which are under construction, industry sources said.
Most of the ships were built in Chinese shipyards and partly financed by the country's international development bank.
In December last year, officials at Vale said the acceptance of these giant vessels in China's ports will require "patience."
Samsung Heavy wins $1.46 bln stake in Petronas LNG project
Samsung Heavy Industries Co Ltd <010140.KS> said on Friday it has won a 1.56 trillion won ($1.46 billion) order to build a liquefied natural gas (LNG) floating production, storage and offloading (FPSO) unit for Petronas
The South Korean shipbuilder said in a regulatory filing it had formed a consortium with Japan's JGC Corporation <1963.T> to win the order and the disclosed amount represents Samsung Heavy's stake in the project. Samsung Heavy did not specify the size of the stake.
Malaysian state oil firm Petronas said on Thursday it has approved plans to build the floating LNG plant offshore in Sabah state on Borneo island and expected the facility to be ready for start-up by early 2018. The company did not disclose the value and financial terms of the contract.
Source: Reuters
The South Korean shipbuilder said in a regulatory filing it had formed a consortium with Japan's JGC Corporation <1963.T> to win the order and the disclosed amount represents Samsung Heavy's stake in the project. Samsung Heavy did not specify the size of the stake.
Malaysian state oil firm Petronas said on Thursday it has approved plans to build the floating LNG plant offshore in Sabah state on Borneo island and expected the facility to be ready for start-up by early 2018. The company did not disclose the value and financial terms of the contract.
Source: Reuters
Japan's Rakuten buys chat app Viber for $900 mln to expand digital empire
Japanese e-commerce giant Rakuten Inc <4755.T>, controlled by billionaire Hiroshi Mikitani, will buy call and messaging app provider Viber Media Inc for $900 million in a deal that would more than double the number of users in its digital empire.
Rakuten offers services from financing to shopping to online video on its e-commerce platform, the largest in Japan. But in the face of a shrinking population and weak consumer spending at home, Mikitani is trying to re-invent Rakuten as a one-stop-site for a global audience.
Privately held Viber, run from Cyprus by Israeli entrepreneur Talmon Marco, will add 300 million users to Rakuten's existing 200 million users, Mikitani told reporters in Tokyo.
"This acquisition... will take Rakuten to a different level," said Mikitani, who is also the company's chief executive. The all-cash deal was announced after Rakuten reported an 80 percent jump in its 2013 operating profit.
"Developing this messaging system on our own would have been impossible," he added, saying Rakuten users could, for example, use Viber's instant messages to contact an online store while considering a purchase.
Viber is one of the top five most downloaded smartphone phone call and messaging apps, and counts the United States, Russia and Australia among its biggest markets.
Its chief executive Marco told the same media conference Rakuten's acquisition would help his company become a platform for digital content, not just a provider of free voice calls and messages.
A plethora of messaging apps, including the likes of Viber, are seeking to capitalise on the appeal of their free services, especially in emerging markets.
Viber is funded from the pockets of its founders and several private investors from the United States. It competes with instant messaging apps such as WeChat, a unit of Chinese Internet firm Tencent Holdings Ltd <0700.HK>, U.S. rival WhatsApp, and Line, owned by Korean company Naver Corp <035420.KS>.
Viber recently launched an instant messaging app for personal computers that allows users to make outgoing mobile calls to other Viber users and non-registered mobiles, making it a rival to Skype.
The acquisition by Rakuten is expected to be completed by the end of March, both companies said.
SHOPPING SPREE
Rakuten's e-commerce platform, Rakuten Ichiba, is the sixth largest in the world by sales.
The company puts a premium on its ability to communicate with customers. Last year, Mikitani told Reuters this personal touch will give Rakuten the edge over rivals like eBay Incand Amazon.com Inc in Europe, where recession-hit retailers are struggling to tempt clients to spend. [ID:nL6N0CDBW4]
Rakuten has spent big in recent years on a variety of overseas purchases to broaden its businesses and reach under what Mikitani calls its "Rakuten Ecosystem" strategy.
The company has acquired e-commerce providers from Brazil to Germany, as well as Toronto-based eReader business Kobo and online video providers Wuaki.tv of Spain and Viki of Singapore. In 2012, it made a large investment in website Pinterest.
Strong profit growth has contributed to its spending firepower.
In the 12 months ended Dec. 31, Rakuten's operating profit jumped 80 percent to 90.2 billion yen ($882.89 million), marking a sixth consecutive year of record earnings, though lagging the average 99.9 billion yen projected by 18 analysts polled by Thomson Reuters Starmine.
Net profit doubled to 43.5 billion yen, while revenue rose 30 percent to 518.6 billion yen.
Source: Reuters
Rakuten offers services from financing to shopping to online video on its e-commerce platform, the largest in Japan. But in the face of a shrinking population and weak consumer spending at home, Mikitani is trying to re-invent Rakuten as a one-stop-site for a global audience.
Privately held Viber, run from Cyprus by Israeli entrepreneur Talmon Marco, will add 300 million users to Rakuten's existing 200 million users, Mikitani told reporters in Tokyo.
"This acquisition... will take Rakuten to a different level," said Mikitani, who is also the company's chief executive. The all-cash deal was announced after Rakuten reported an 80 percent jump in its 2013 operating profit.
"Developing this messaging system on our own would have been impossible," he added, saying Rakuten users could, for example, use Viber's instant messages to contact an online store while considering a purchase.
Viber is one of the top five most downloaded smartphone phone call and messaging apps, and counts the United States, Russia and Australia among its biggest markets.
Its chief executive Marco told the same media conference Rakuten's acquisition would help his company become a platform for digital content, not just a provider of free voice calls and messages.
A plethora of messaging apps, including the likes of Viber, are seeking to capitalise on the appeal of their free services, especially in emerging markets.
Viber is funded from the pockets of its founders and several private investors from the United States. It competes with instant messaging apps such as WeChat, a unit of Chinese Internet firm Tencent Holdings Ltd <0700.HK>, U.S. rival WhatsApp, and Line, owned by Korean company Naver Corp <035420.KS>.
Viber recently launched an instant messaging app for personal computers that allows users to make outgoing mobile calls to other Viber users and non-registered mobiles, making it a rival to Skype.
The acquisition by Rakuten is expected to be completed by the end of March, both companies said.
SHOPPING SPREE
Rakuten's e-commerce platform, Rakuten Ichiba, is the sixth largest in the world by sales.
The company puts a premium on its ability to communicate with customers. Last year, Mikitani told Reuters this personal touch will give Rakuten the edge over rivals like eBay Inc
Rakuten has spent big in recent years on a variety of overseas purchases to broaden its businesses and reach under what Mikitani calls its "Rakuten Ecosystem" strategy.
The company has acquired e-commerce providers from Brazil to Germany, as well as Toronto-based eReader business Kobo and online video providers Wuaki.tv of Spain and Viki of Singapore. In 2012, it made a large investment in website Pinterest.
Strong profit growth has contributed to its spending firepower.
In the 12 months ended Dec. 31, Rakuten's operating profit jumped 80 percent to 90.2 billion yen ($882.89 million), marking a sixth consecutive year of record earnings, though lagging the average 99.9 billion yen projected by 18 analysts polled by Thomson Reuters Starmine.
Net profit doubled to 43.5 billion yen, while revenue rose 30 percent to 518.6 billion yen.
BDI GLOBAL ECONOMIC REPORT
The global economy is continuing to recover, but still has not returned to the four percent average growth rates seen in recent years. Though the developed economies have gradually begun to show signs of stabilising, the economic performance of the newly industrialised countries, with the exception of China, has been somewhat more modest of late. Growth in several emerging economies has been hampered by reduced domestic demand. Supply-side obstacles to growth, such as infrastructure bottlenecks, also had to be overcome. Meanwhile, commodity-exporting countries had to cope with declining demand. However, recently released early indicators point to a global upswing in economic activity. In November 2013, Markit’s global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index hit its highest level since May 2011. The OECD Composite Leading Indicators suggest that most developed economies will experience rising growth rates. The economic outlook is more optimistic in both the developed and newly industrialised countries, according to the Ifo World Economic Climate Index. Overall, the IMF expects world trade and global economic output to grow by 4.5 percent and 3.7 percent respectively in 2014.
In Asia’s newly industrialised countries, economic activity gained momentum again in the second half of 2013. The government in China was able to stabilise growth with a series of smaller stimulus packages. The Chinese economy grew quite substantially in the third quarter, up 7.8 percent over the previous year. The inflation rate was only three percent according to the latest data, and thus below the government’s limit, which allowed the country’s central bank to maintain the key interest rate. The IMF’s growth forecasts for 2013 and 2014 stand at 7.7 percent and 7.5 percent respectively. India’s growth potential is severely constrained by poor infrastructure, overregulation and protectionist measures. Following two consecutive quarters of negative growth, the country fell into a recession in the first half of 2013. The IMF expects that the country’s economy will expand by 4.4 percent in 2013, before strengthening somewhat to 5.4 percent in 2014. Economic output in Brazil contracted by 0.5 percent in the third quarter of 2013 compared with the previous quarter. South America’s largest country continued to be hobbled by high inflation and a weak currency, so much so that its central bank was compelled to raise key interest rates to ten percent. The commodity-rich country was also hit with falling export demand. The IMF has lowered its growth forecast to 2.3 percent in 2014. Russia’s economy also entered a weak phase in the first half of 2013 due to sluggish foreign demand and weak capital investment. After having an average annual growth rate of 1.5 percent in 2013, growth will continue to be weak in 2014, with growth in GDP forecast at just two percent by the IMF.
The United States recently surprised analysts with a significant rise in GDP. By posting an increase of 0.9 percent over the second quarter, the US economy grew faster in the third quarter of 2013 than in any other quarter in almost two years. This equates to a 1.8 percent uptick in GDP on a year-on-year basis. The upswing in economic activity was primarily driven by a marked increase in private investment and higher-than-average inventories. Numerous economic indicators continue to point upward. Manufacturing showed another improvement in the latest data, growing 3.1 percent over the same month last year. Although the ISM Purchasing Managers’ Index fell in December for the first time since May 2013, with the month-to-month reading dropping to 57 points, it remained at a level that corresponds to overall economic growth of more than four percent. The good economic performance will ultimately bring about an end to the Federal Reserve’s expansive monetary policy. According to the US Department of Labor, the unemployment rate fell from seven to 6.7 percent from November to December 2013, thus nearing the target threshold of 6.5 percent. The Fed has signalled that it would start unwinding its bond-buying programme once this threshold is crossed. Falling unemployment, however, should not blind us to the fact that the labour force participation rate dropped to a historic low of 62.8 percent in December. Overall, though, reports on the US economy remain predominantly positive, suggesting that the stable upward trend will continue. The IMF’s most recent forecasts for US GDP growth stand at 1.9 percent for 2013 and 2.8 percent for 2014.
Growth momentum in Japan slowed somewhat in the third quarter. After posting a 0.9 percent rise in GDP during the second quarter, Japan saw its GDP grow by just 0.3 percent, quarter on quarter, in the most recent data. The uptick was mainly due to an expansion of government spending, which was especially directed towards investments in public infrastructure. Meanwhile, private consumption and private-sector investment played almost no role in growth. Japan’s current account surplus narrowed in the third quarter to just 0.5 percent of GDP, mainly due to a rise in energy imports. Measures introduced by the Japanese government to fight deflation and low growth have had only limited success. Although the inflation rate stood at 1.1 percent in October 2013, its highest level in five years, business and consumer demand is still too weak for a self-sustaining upturn. The latest unemployment rate stood at four percent, slightly below last year’s level, but consumer confidence was somewhat weaker than at the start of the year. Manufacturing rose sharply in recent months. The Japanese government passed another stimulus programme, amounting to around one percent of the country’s total annual economic output, to offset potential contractionary pressures that may be triggered by April’s consumption tax increase from five to eight percent. It is therefore possible that private consumption will gather momentum at the beginning of 2014 as a result of the pull-forward effect. According to the IMF’s latest projections, the Japanese economy will grow at a rate of 1.7 percent in both 2013 and 2014.
Economic output in the European Union (EU 28) expanded for the second consecutive quarter. Third-quarter GDP rose by 0.2 percent over the previous period, following GDP growth of 0.4 percent in the second quarter. Economic output also showed a slight improvement of 0.1 percent over the same quarter last year. The European Commission’s autumn economic forecast predicts that overall EU GDP will stagnate in 2013. The 1.4 percent increase in total GDP growth this year will finally take the EU out of recession. The eurozone is also seeing an improvement in economic activity. Having posted GDP growth of 0.3 percent in the second quarter, the eurozone saw another slight increase of 0.1 percent in the third quarter compared with the previous period. Without the sluggish performance of economic heavyweights Italy and France, GDP growth would have been 0.2 percent. Economic output grew during the third quarter in all eurozone countries, with the exception of the Czech Republic, Cyprus, France and Italy. This signals that the worst may be over for the eurozone. Other economic indicators also point towards an economic upturn. Manufacturing sentiment indicators have been on the rise continuously since May 2013; consumer confidence has improved compared with levels observed in the spring; and eurozone manufacturing has seen two consecutive periods of year-on-year increases, according to the most recent data. The European Commission also expects an economic recovery in the eurozone. Although real GDP in 2013 will decrease by 0.4 percent over the previous year, a growth rate of 1.1 percent (IMF: 1.0 percent) is expected in 2014. After some time, this modest recovery will filter through to the labour market. The unemployment rate has been stuck at 12.1 percent since April 2013 and will remain at this level in 2014. The Commission predicts that it will be 2015 before unemployment declines slightly.
|
China Trusts' Road to Bust
The Wall Street Journal reports,"sooner or later, someone in China's trust-products universe is going to lose real money''.
''Weeks after a hasty bailout was arranged for a troubled Chinese trust product, another shadow lender, Jilin Trust, has failed to make payments on tranches of an investment product that came due over the past few months. Jilin is set to miss another payment next week. Once again the product in question is linked to a troubled coal miner, and was sold to investors by one of China's big four state banks, in this case China Construction Bank''.
The product's six tranches amount to nearly 1 billion yuan, or around $165 million, smaller than the $500 million worth of ICBC -sold products rescued last month by a mysterious third party. Trust investors in that case lost interest payments but no principal. Another shadowy resolution in which investors eventually get their principal back can't be ruled out. Jilin Trust told investors the coal company is in restructuring as it attempts to pay back debt. The final tranche matures in March.
It's also possible authorities will let investors take a bigger hit. Even if not, more distressed trust situations are inevitable and will test Beijing's resolve. Bernstein Research estimates that about 40% of the about 10 trillion yuan in trust products outstanding will mature this year. The trust companies themselves are thinly capitalized, with an equity base equivalent to 2.6% of assets under management.
It's also possible authorities will let investors take a bigger hit. Even if not, more distressed trust situations are inevitable and will test Beijing's resolve. Bernstein Research estimates that about 40% of the about 10 trillion yuan in trust products outstanding will mature this year. The trust companies themselves are thinly capitalized, with an equity base equivalent to 2.6% of assets under management.
China's big banks will be insulated so long as they can hold the line that they aren't liable for failed products that they distributed. If banks are seen to be involved in a bailout, investors will be right to question how much of this off-balance-sheet activity needs to be accounted for on the books.
In theory, China's trusts are economically useful, directing credit to dynamic companies that banks don't reach because of their bias toward serving other state-owned enterprises. In practice, trusts tend to be lenders of last resort to the least-productive sectors that the banks have been told to avoid. The China Trustee Association says 35% of trust assets are invested in the infrastructure, energy, mining and real-estate sectors. Nomura economist Zhiwei Zhang reckons the true proportion is over 50%.
The good news is Chinese investors are getting reacquainted with risk. The question is whether this can happen without sparking a broader crisis of confiden
BDI: German economy gathers momentum
The German economy has been back on track since the beginning of the second half of 2013.Third-quarter GDP increased by 0.3 percent over the previous quarter after inflation, seasonal and calendar adjustments. Economic output grew much more vigorously in the second quarter, improving by 0.7 percent, but this performance was affected by catching-up processes brought on by the slow start early in the year. In year-on-year terms, third-quarter growth was up by 1.1 percent in 2013. Investment was the main driver of expansion, rising by a total of three percent quarter on quarter. Consumer spending, which increased by 0.2 percent, was not quite as strong as in the previous quarter. Meanwhile, government spending was up by 0.5 percent, significantly outpacing private consumption (just 0.1 percent higher).
Having made a positive contribution to economic activity in the second quarter, the trade balanceacted more as a drag on growth in recent months. German exports remained broadly unchanged, while imports rose by 0.8 percent, resulting in a negative growth contribution of 0.4 percentage points to the trade balance. Exports were particularly affected by the weak demand for German goods in France, Italy and Spain resulting from the underlying economic conditions in these countries, and by reduced imports by Turkey. Increased exports to the US, the UK, China and Japan could not compensate for falling exports to southern Europe. On the import side, German demand for goods from France, Spain, the Netherlands, Italy and the UK dropped significantly. On the other hand, there was a disproportionate rise in imports from Russia and China. However, the latest data show that German exports are on an upward trend. Exports rose month on month from August to November 2013, after calendar and seasonal adjustments. Nonetheless, the previous year’s level of exports was not fully achieved. Exports from January to November decreased overall by 0.5 percent compared with the same period last year. German imports have not displayed a clear trend of late. Imports in November 2013 were down by 1.1 percent, month on month, after calendar and seasonal adjustments, following a three percent uptick in October. Imports from January to November 2013 fell overall by 1.3 percent compared with the same period last year.
Preliminary calculations by the Federal Statistical Office show German GDP rising by 0.4 percent year on year in 2013. When adjusted for calendar effects, this equates to GDP growth of 0.5 percent. These data suggest that the German economy continued on track in the fourth quarter and will begin the year with a statistical overhang of around 0.5 percent. The sole boost to GDP growth in 2013 came from domestic consumption. Overall, foreign trade and investment acted as a drag on growth.
Developments on the German labour market were extremely healthy once again in 2013. Preliminary figures for 2013 from the Federal Statistical Office show that employment increased by 233,000, or 0.6 percent, to 41.8 million, the highest level since German reunification. This improvement was mainly driven by a rise in the number of employees paying into the social security system. Preliminary data reveal that this figure grew within a year by 359,000, or 1.2 percent, to 29.83 million in October 2013 (latest available data). Full and part-time positions increased by 152,000 and 208,000 respectively in a year-on-year comparison. Nearly every sector posted employment gains. Business services (excluding temporary positions), and healthcare and social services, were the industries with the strongest absolute employment growth, while the temporary work sector experienced a notable decline in job numbers.
Unemployment stood at 2.87 million in December 2013, up 67,000 from November and 33,000 higher than a year ago; however, after seasonal adjustments, unemployment was 15,000 lower than it was in November. The unemployment rate in December remained unchanged at 6.7 percent compared with the same month a year ago. On average, some 2.95 million people were unemployed in 2013, which corresponds to an annual average unemployment rate of 6.9 percent. The fact that the growth in the number of employees paying into the social security system failed to correlate with the unemployment results can be attributed to an increased propensity of women to take up employment and to a rise in the number of working-age persons as a result of immigration from the EU’s crisis-hit and candidate countries. In addition, unemployed persons often lacked the qualifications required for the available jobs. The Institute for Employment Research expects the labour market to continue developing in a positive direction on account of the economic upswing. Immigration and rising labour market participation will largely determine the increase in the potential labour force. However, unemployment will only decline marginally in 2014 due to unemployed persons having insufficient or wrong qualifications.
Source: BDI The Voice of German Industry
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