Last week, the Nicaraguan congress approved a US$40 billion project for a Chinese company to build an Isthmian canal parallel to Panama's. For those of us prone to peering anxiously into the future, this gave a disquieting advance picture of the new world of Chinese hegemony into which we are probably entering, whether we like it or not.
There is no question that China's enormous economic success in the last 40 years has brought forth a desire, both among the regime and among China's people as a whole, to resume the position of global dominance it enjoyed for two millennia. Ten years ago, this ambition would have seemed quixotic, except over the time-frame of half a century or more. Today, both because of China's economic successes and because of US economic, military and foreign policy blunders, it appears entirely realistic, and for many observers inevitable.
Whether China's advance is something to be welcomed depends entirely on what kind of regime China has as a hegemon. Two possibilities exist. First, China may continue its current growth on its current trajectory with its current regime, with its GDP per capita increasing from about 15% of the US figure to about 50%. At that point, the inefficiencies and corruption of China's current government system would prevent further progress towards the "frontier" affluence of the United States and the better-run European and Asian free-market economies.
Indeed, China's GDP would be as great as that of the US and the EU combined, although smaller free-market countries like Canada, Australia and the free-market East Asian economies of Japan, South Korea and the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations would still give the West a modest preponderance.
In this case, you can imagine the Chinese playing the game of international power politics rather like the old Soviet Union, at least in its less malign days after Stalin's death.
The Nicaraguan canal, a $40 billion investment that is hopelessly economically unviable (as Panama's adjacent canal has annual revenues of only $2.4 billion) would be followed by a naval base. China would enjoy the enthusiastic cooperation of the anti-American Ortega government, which would have been propped up by Chinese money and when necessary information about its opponents. Daniel Ortega, is only 67 and in good health. Another 20 years of his rule would cement China's position in the Western Hemisphere.
Like Rafael Correa's Ecuador would also cement itself into long-lasting dictatorships under Chinese dominance. Countries like Venezuela and Argentina, with anti-Western regimes that got into economic trouble, would find China very helpful, although not all of these interventions would be successful. Africa would also be dotted with Chinese satrapies.
AsianTimes
Martin Hutchinson
There is no question that China's enormous economic success in the last 40 years has brought forth a desire, both among the regime and among China's people as a whole, to resume the position of global dominance it enjoyed for two millennia. Ten years ago, this ambition would have seemed quixotic, except over the time-frame of half a century or more. Today, both because of China's economic successes and because of US economic, military and foreign policy blunders, it appears entirely realistic, and for many observers inevitable.
Whether China's advance is something to be welcomed depends entirely on what kind of regime China has as a hegemon. Two possibilities exist. First, China may continue its current growth on its current trajectory with its current regime, with its GDP per capita increasing from about 15% of the US figure to about 50%. At that point, the inefficiencies and corruption of China's current government system would prevent further progress towards the "frontier" affluence of the United States and the better-run European and Asian free-market economies.
Indeed, China's GDP would be as great as that of the US and the EU combined, although smaller free-market countries like Canada, Australia and the free-market East Asian economies of Japan, South Korea and the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations would still give the West a modest preponderance.
In this case, you can imagine the Chinese playing the game of international power politics rather like the old Soviet Union, at least in its less malign days after Stalin's death.
The Nicaraguan canal, a $40 billion investment that is hopelessly economically unviable (as Panama's adjacent canal has annual revenues of only $2.4 billion) would be followed by a naval base. China would enjoy the enthusiastic cooperation of the anti-American Ortega government, which would have been propped up by Chinese money and when necessary information about its opponents. Daniel Ortega, is only 67 and in good health. Another 20 years of his rule would cement China's position in the Western Hemisphere.
Like Rafael Correa's Ecuador would also cement itself into long-lasting dictatorships under Chinese dominance. Countries like Venezuela and Argentina, with anti-Western regimes that got into economic trouble, would find China very helpful, although not all of these interventions would be successful. Africa would also be dotted with Chinese satrapies.
AsianTimes
Martin Hutchinson
