According to a Wall Street Journal article there are many doubts about the accuracy of China´s
official data.
official data.
"The official data shows growth on target at 7.5% year-on-year in the second quarter. But on a quarter-on-quarter annualized basis – the way in which growth is measured in the U.S. – the picture isn’t as rosy.
The National Bureau of Statistics put the sequential growth rate at just shy of 7% in the second quarter, up from 6.6% in the first. Estimates from investment bank analysts are in the same ballpark and also show growth accelerating moderately in the second quarter.
By contrast, business surveys show the economy continuing to lose momentum. The HSBC Markit purchasing managers’ index suggests conditions in the manufacturing sector deteriorated in June. A survey by Market News International also pointed to worsening conditions.
With political attention focused on headline numbers like GDP, some analyst favor tracking lower-profile indicators, on the theory they are less likely to be meddled with. A composite of indicators including electricity output, passenger traffic, and seaport cargo put together by Capital Economics shows growth at 6% year-on-year in May, down from 7.3% at the end of 2012"
China’s government is hoping that consumption will start to play a bigger role in driving growth. The official numbers show that effort has stalled, with growth in retail sales slowing to 12.7% in the first half of 2013.
A combination of slower wage growth and uncertainty about the economic outlook seemed to weigh on consumer sentiment. An April survey of 1,000 consumers across 12 cities by the Boston Consulting Group found that just 27% planned to increase spending in the year ahead, down from 38% in 2012.
Over invoicing by Chinese firms was evident in a sharp divergence between China’s data on exports to Hong Kong and Hong Kong data on imports from China.
