Sunday 1 September 2013

China: Retailers are not sure the Economy is stabilizing yet.

If things are really starting to look up for China's economy, as a recent spate of better-than-expected government data seems to suggest, nobody appears to have told its biggest retailers.

A Reuters review of first-half earnings showed that more than 20 Chinese companies selling everything from footwear  to food were not convinced the economic slowdown had bottomed out, and neither were their traditionally thrifty customers.
"There are uncertainties in future prospects as the economy is struggling with a difficult transition involving structural rebalancing and revamping the growth model," said Belle, which has a market value of $11.6 billion and manages more than 18,000 retail outlets across 360 Chinese cities.
Economists have long doubted the accuracy of official economic data and this skepticism has increased as China plots a course towards consumption-led growth. The official retail sales measure, for example, counts a sale from when an item is shipped, rather than when it is actually sold.
The latest data, however, supports retailers' complaints.
Retail sales grew 13.2 percent in July year-on-year, a slowdown from 14.3 percent annual growth in 2012, and 17.1 percent growth in 2011.
"Consumer sentiment showed no sign of significant recovery, affecting many businesses," said menswear retailer China Lilang Ltd , which has nearly 3,500 stores across China.
"The increase in the overall savings rate indicates that China still has a long way to go to transform into a consumption-driven economy," it said in its earnings statement.
The personal savings of mainland households was about 38 percent of disposable income in 2012, according to economists. The International Monetary Fund said China's urban household savings rate was less than 20 percent of disposable income in the mid-1990s.
China's recently appointed leaders are trying to wean the economy away from the credit and investment-driven growth that powered its break-neck expansion for three decades to a more sustainable model that favors domestic consumption.

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