U.S. Economic Indicators for today

Chain Store Sales

The handful of chain stores that continue to post monthly sales results hint at a bit of weakness for core August retail sales. A bit more chains report declining year-on-year sales rates in the month than in July, though again the sample is extremely small. Chains are holding to prior guidance with a couple describing August sales as consistent with trend. Core sales, that is ex-auto ex-gas, rose 0.4 percent in July after no change in June. Challenger Job-Cut Report Weakness in global mining demand tripped a surge of layoffs in the industrial goods sector and made for a 50,462 headline total for August layoff intentions. This is the highest total since February and compares with 37,701 in July and 32,239 in August last year. Layoffs in industrial goods came in at 22,162 for a 19,811 gain from July and the highest total since the heavy layoff days of January 2009. But outside of this one sector, layoffs were no heavier than prior months. ADP Employment Report ADP reports a slowing rise for private payroll growth, to 176,000 in August vs July's downwardly revised rise of 198,000. This is right on Econoday expectations for sizable slowing, to 177,000 vs ADP's initial July reading of 200,000. The slowing contrasts with Econoday expectations for Friday's nonfarm payroll headline which includes government workers. Non-farm payrolls are expected to show modest improvement, to 175,000 vs July's 162,000.  Jobless Claims Jobless claims are moving lower to indicate health in the employment sector. Initial claims fell 9,000 in the August 31 week to a 323,000 level that is 7,000 below the Econoday consensus and very near a recovery low. Initial claims in the prior week are revised slightly higher to 332,000. The 4-week average is at a recovery low, down 3,000 to 328,500 from a revised 331,500 in the prior week. The average has been trending about 10,000 lower from July levels which points to monthly improvement in the jobs market. Continuing claims tell the same story. Continuing claims for the August 24 week, which are the latest available data, fell 43,000 to 2.951 million with the 4-week average down 18,000 to 2.980 million. Both of these levels are very near recovery lows while the unemployment for insured workers remains at a recovery low of 2.3 percent. Falling jobless claims do not necessarily point to new hiring but they do offer assurance that economic conditions are improving. There are no special factors at play in today's results. Market Consensus before announcement Initial jobless claims in the August 24 week fell 6,000 to 331,000 versus a revised 337,000 in the prior week. The 4-week average rose slightly to 331,250, after a revised 330,500 in the prior week. But a comparison with the month-ago trend shows a roughly 10,000 decline. Source: Econoday