Tuesday 26 November 2013

US Consumer Confidence before Black Friday

The temporary agreement to end the standoff in Washington did nothing to boost consumer confidence which fell further in November, to 70.4 vs October's revised 72.4. Confidence took a big hit in October, falling from September's 80.2 amid the government shutdown and budget standoff.

The weakness continues to be centered in the expectations component where wide swings are common. Expectations fell to 69.3 vs 72.2 in October and against 84.7 in September before all the Washington trouble started. Consumers are showing less confidence in their income prospects and especially on the outlook for the jobs market.

 Steady readings for this component point to steady rates of monthly change for the economy as a whole. As for the jobs market specifically, today's report points to a little bit of improvement this month as fewer consumers, at 34.0 percent, describe jobs as currently hard to get which is down from 34.9 percent in October.

Other readings include a drop in inflation expectations, down 3 tenths to 5.2 percent and reflecting the decline in pump prices.
The economic shock from the government shutdown proved very limited, not affecting jobs or manufacturing but badly shaking up consumer confidence. Shaky confidence going into Black Friday won't be much to celebrate for the nation's retailers.

Source: Bloomberg

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