US Initial jobless Claims rises to 19,000

A surprise 19,000 rise in initial jobless to a much higher-than-expected 348,000, together with a rising trend for continuing claims, are not pointing to much improvement for the labor market, at least for January. But a plus in the data is the 4-week average for initial claims, up only slightly to 333,000 which is more than 20,000 below the month-ago trend. Another plus is a 16,000 dip in continuing claims to 2.991 million in data for the January 18 week. The 4-week average, however, is up sharply, 43,000 higher to 2.970 million which is the highest reading since August. The unemployment rate for insured workers, which had been as low as 2.1 percent in November, is at 2.3 percent for a 3rd straight week. There are no special factors at play in today's report though the latest initial claims are for the shortened Martin Luther King week which raises the risk of adjustment volatility. The Fed yesterday cited improvement underway in the labor market but its hard to find convincing proof in this report.

Market Consensus before announcement Initial jobless claims posted at lower-than-expected 326,000 in the January 18 week. The 4-week average was down 3,750 to 331,500 which is more than 10,000 lower than the month-ago comparison to offer an indication of strength for the January employment report. But in a partial offset, continuing claims are not coming down. Continuing claims, which are reported with a 1-week lag, rose 34,000 in the January 11 week to 3.056 million for a second straight reading over 3.0 million. Continuing claims had held below 3.0 million through the second half of last year. The 4-week average is up 31,000 in the week to 2.939 million which is the highest reading since August. Source: Bloomberg