Sunday 9 February 2014

Asia shares creep higher, plenty of risk ahead

Asian markets,made guarded gains on Monday, encouraged that Wall Street was able to weather a seemingly disappointing U.S. jobs report, though there is more than enough event risk ahead to keep investors cautious.
Crucially, the new head of the Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen, delivers her first testimony to the House on Tuesday and the Senate on Thursday, and markets will be hoping for reassurance that policy will stay loose for a long time to come.
Japan's Nikkei crept ahead 1 percent on Monday to reach 14,650, moving away from last week's trough at 13,995.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan inched up 0.2 percent, while Australian stocks added 0.7 percent.
Markets took their cue from Wall Street where the Dow ended Friday up 1.06 percent and the S&P 500 1.33 percent. The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 had also risen 0.75 percent.
Japanese shares found further comfort in a softening yen with the dollar pushing up to 102.45 but meeting resistance around 102.60. The dollar was also a shade firmer on the euro at $1.3620, against $1.3635 late Friday.
Both stocks and the dollar had initially retreated when the U.S. payrolls report showed a rise of only 113,000 in January, well short of forecasts.
However, the damage was limited by a very strong household survey where a sharp jump in the number of people employed nudged the jobless rate down to 6.6 percent.
The mixed bag left Treasuries little changed with yields on 10-year notes a shade lower at 2.68 percent.
In commodities, oil prices extended their recent gains as persistently cold weather across the U.S. continued to eat into heating fuel stocks.
U.S. crude rose 27 cents to $100.14 a barrel, having reached its highest in six weeks, while Brent crude oil futures were steady at $109.55 a barrel.
Spot gold was also firm at $1,265.55 an ounce, but faces stiff resistance from $1,273 to $1,278.
Major U.S. data includes retail sales on Thursday where a flat result is forecasts due partly to bad weather and a rise in petrol prices.
In Asia, China releases trade numbers on Wednesday and consumer prices on Friday. 
The euro zone releases its first estimate of economic growth on Friday and forecasts favour a slim 0.2 percent increase in the fourth quarter, which would keep pressure on for more action from the European Central Bank.
ECB President Mario Draghi gives a speech on "Progress Through Crisis?" on Wednesday and markets will be sensitive to any hint of further accommodation to come.

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