Monday 9 June 2014

Aluminium hits 9-1/2 month high, zinc touches 15-1/2 month peak

Aluminium prices hit their highest in 9-1/2 months on Monday as inventories continued to decline and speculators piled into the market after key chart-based levels were breached.

Zinc hit its highest in 15-1/2 months on strong demand, but copper slipped to a one-month low on concerns that a probe into metals storage and financing fraud at a Chinese port could cut investor buying interest.

Three-month aluminium on the London Metal Exchange

(LME) hit a session peak of $1,918 a tonne, the strongest since Aug. 22, 2013, before paring gains to close at $1,911, up 1.8 percent.

"The move is quite bullish as it is independent from forex,"

said Gianclaudio Torlizzi, partner at metals consultancy T-Commodity.

Computer-driven speculative funds were behind the latest surge after aluminium broke above a peak touched in April, he said, adding the next target was $1,945 a tonne.

"I am reasonably bullish on aluminium this year due to supply tightness. Aluminium has seen the highest reduction of on-warrant stock year-to-date among the LME complex," he said.

LME on-warrant stock - those inventories not ready to be delivered and therefore available to the market - in aluminium has declined by a quarter to 2.32 million tonnes this year.

Russian producer Rusal <0486.HK> said it expects prices may rise as far as $2,000 a tonne in the coming months on to a combination of bullish physical and technical factors.


LME zinc jumped to a session high of $2,145 a tonne, the loftiest since February 2013, before closing at $2,131, a gain of 1.3 percent.

Analyst Mark Keenan of Societe Generale in Singapore said demand for zinc was improving from a diverse base, including auto and white goods.

Copper rebounded from a one-month low as investors digested the latest news about an investigation at China's Qingdao Port, a huge trading hub in the northeast, into whether single cargoes of metal were used multiple times to obtain financing.

As part of the probe, Qingdao Port has suspended delivery of metals from its Dagang storage zone.
Three-month copper fell to a session low of $6,636 a tonne, its weakest since early May, before recovering to finish at $6,670, a decline of 0.24 percent.

"Until there is more clarity about the amount of metals investigated, traders will dump more futures. At the same time copper is quite oversold now," Torlizzi said.

The uncertainty continued to show up in LME spreads.

Cash copper for nearby delivery traded at just $11 above the benchmark three-month price, down from more than $100 at the end of May , with some copper at Qingdao Port said to be on its way to more regulated LME warehouses.

Meanwhile, China traders continue to dump physical metal on worries that access to financing will be constrained.

Premiums for copper held in Shanghai's bonded zones dropped another $5 to $90-$110, according to China price provider Shmet, down $25 since the middle of last week. (www.shmet.com)

Data earlier showed China's imports of major commodities fell in May from the previous month as robust shipments in April caused a supply overhang, credit tightened and authorities increased scrutiny of commodities financing.

Copper imports from the world's top consumer fell 15.6 percent from a month earlier to 380,000 tonnes in May. China consumes around 40 percent of the world's copper.

Lead ended up 1.5 percent at $2,141 a tonne, tin added 0.52 percent to close at $23,295 while nickel finished up 0.3 percent at $18,905.


Source: Reuters

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