Wednesday 18 June 2014

POLL-U.S. natgas EIA stock build seen at 110 bcf, outpacing norm

 U.S. utilities likely put 110 billion cubic feet of natural gas into underground storage caverns last week, continuing the record pace of injection as utilities rebuild depleted heating supplies before next winter, a Reuters poll of analysts showed on Wednesday.

The previous week's addition of 107 bcf marked five consecutive weeks of injections exceeding 100-bcf, only the second such string of injections, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

A 110-bcf injection for the week ended June 13 would surpass

the prior week's 107-bcf build, as well as the 92-bcf build last year and the 87-bcf five-year average. If the forecast is right, it would be the ninth week in a row that injections exceeded the five-year norm.

After a slow start in April, storage builds over the last four weeks have outdistanced the 2013 and five-year norm. Utilities have stockpiled 446 bcf of gas over the last four weeks, compared with 383 bcf in the same period in 2013 and 364 bcf for the five-year average.

Even with a 110-bcf forecast build, overall gas in storage will remain at an 11-year low for mid-June as utilities attempt to replace a record 3 trillion cubic feet of gas withdrawn from storage over the past winter to keep homes and businesses warm.

Analysts polled by Reuters said they expect utilities to add a record 2.6 tcf of gas into storage during the April-October injection season to get stocks up to what several consider a healthy 3.4 tcf before the November-March winter heating season.
That, however, would still be well below the 3.8 tcf five-year norm and would be the lowest amount of gas in storage at the start of a heating season since 2005.

This week's injection forecast would bring total gas in storage to 1.716 tcf, slightly narrowing the storage deficit to

29 percent below the 2013 level and 33 percent below the five-year average for this time of year.

Some analysts warn that even 2014's strong injection pace will not be enough to avoid price spikes next winter. Other analysts argue that record U.S. gas production will make utilities less reliant on stored gas than in previous winters.

The EIA will release the gas storage data on Thursday at 10:30 a.m. EDT (1430 GMT).

The Reuters poll had 22 participants, with injection estimates ranging from 101 bcf to 115 bcf. The median estimate and the average were both 110 bcf.

Early estimates for injections in the next storage report ranged between 75 and 97 bcf, with an average build of 89 bcf, surpassing the 94-bcf increase seen a year ago and the five-year average of 81 bcf.

Source: Reuters

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