Wednesday 2 July 2014

Copper hits 4-month high on dollar, economic optimism

Copper rose to its highest in nearly four months on Wednesday on a low dollar, an upbeat China manufacturing outlook and the prospect that U.S. employment data will signal a strengthening recovery in the world's largest economy.

China's factory activity hit multi-month highs in June, official and private surveys showed on Monday, reinforcing signs the world's second-largest economy and biggest copper consumer is steadying as the government steps up policy support. 
Three-month copper futures on the London Metal Exchange were $7,030 a tonne in official rings, off their highest level since March 7 at $7,053 a tonne reached earlier in the session. Copper closed at $7,020 on Tuesday.

"Chinese factory orders data is still very much influencing the copper price today," said Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst at Ava Trade.

"It clearly shows that the PBOC's (People's Bank of China) efforts are working and given that China consumes three quarters of world copper, a further strength in the Chinese economy may lift the copper price further."

China is relaxing the rules used for calculating the amount of deposits that banks can re-lend as loans, an attempt hailed by some economists as the latest move to stimulate growth in its cooling economy.

The most-traded September copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose by 0.4 percent to 50,320 yuan

($8,100) a tonne.

"Overall demand is improving, it's still better than the first quarter," said analyst Chunlan Li at CRU Group in Beijing.

"The macro (situation) seems very good, liquidity is easing, so that's also helping copper prices. We are expecting a higher average price in the third quarter."

The dollar hovered just above a two-month low against a basket of currencies before U.S. jobs reports and a European Central Bank meeting on Thursday that should give clues on future monetary stimulus strategy.

A weaker dollar makes commodities priced in the currency an attractive investment for holders of other currencies.

The U.S. ADP private-sector survey showed employment rose by 281,000 private sector jobs in June, the biggest increase since November 2012.
The U.S. non-farm payrolls report for May will also be released on Thursday, a day earlier than usual due to the July 4 Independence Day holiday

"A strong number could further strengthen demand for the metal," Aslam said.

Copper is used widely in power cables and construction, and a buoyant economy could mean more houses will be built.

In other metals, LME tin was $22,765 per tonne in rings from $22,800 at the close on Tuesday, lead was $2,165.50 per tonne from $2,160 and nickel was $19,150 per tonne from $19,125.

LME aluminium , untraded in rings, was bid at $1,888 per tonne from a last bid of $1,884 and zinc , also untraded, was bid at $2,203 per tonne from $2,186.

Source: Reuters

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