Sunday 3 August 2014

Copper edges up, weak US job data calms worries about Fed

London copper was a tad firmer on Monday after weak U.S. employment data soothed concerns that the Federal Reserve would soon begin to draw back liquidity that has cushioned demand for metals.

Other metals such as LME zinc , lead and aluminium , which have constrained supply, attracted fresh investment to trade up by around half a percent on the London Metal Exchange, albeit in low volume.

"The reason why we cut back on our base metals holdings is that we felt a lot of good news is factored in, in terms of economic activity expected in China ... and also in the fourth quarter we expect momentum will slow again," said analyst Dominic Schnider at UBS Wealth Management in Singapore.

"We only hold metals where we have a little supply story to tell. On nickel, the ore availability is not there. We still target $25,000 by the end of the year," he added.

Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange traded up 0.2 percent at $7,085 a tonne by 0230 GMT, after logging small losses in the previous session.

The most traded October copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was down 0.2 percent at 50,350 yuan ($8,200) a tonne.

U.S. job growth slowed a bit in July and the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose, pointing to slack in the labour market that could give the Federal Reserve room to keep interest rates low for a while.

Manufacturing activity in China and most of Asia gathered pace in July, while expansion slowed in Europe but remained healthy in the United States.

Hedge funds and money managers cut their bullish bets on copper futures and options in the week to July 29, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission said on Friday.
This week, Chinese trade data for July will be released and copper imports may be low again, BNP Paribas said in a note.

Trading houses have found it more difficult to get finance to store metal after suspected fraud at China's Qingdao port earlier this year.

As global banks and trading houses fire off lawsuits over their estimated $900 million exposure to the suspected metal financing fraud, the tangled legal battle to recoup losses is set to drag on for years and hinder any recovery in metal trade.

Among other metals, broker Triland said LME nickel's chart picture was deteriorating with a close on Friday below support at $18,500 a tonne and after it hit its 100 day moving average for the first time since a bull trend began earlier this year.

"It is a clear sign that nickel is unlikely to resume that uptrend in the near future and is indeed more likely to come under further selling pressure next week," it said.

China's stockpiles have dwindled this year after a ban on ore exports from Indonesia came into force in January. LME nickel traded flat at $18,400 a tonne on Monday.
Source: Reuters

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