On present policy makers mistakes.
''They are applying neo-Keynesian theories that call for the government to step in after a recession to boost demand. This might be right in some instances, but I doubt Keynes [British economist John Maynard Keynes] would approve of current policies. Neither would the late economist Milton Friedman, even though Bernanke invoked him to justify his actions. The neo-Keynesians would argue that if the Fed hadn't flooded the system with money, things would have been much worse. That might be true, but they would have been worse for a shorter period of time''.
On how excesses might be corrected.
''At some point, there will be a big reset. Now the rich will be targeted through some kind of wealth tax or significantly higher tax rates. Eventually there will be so much antagonism against well-to-do people that it won't be comfortable.
Also, geopolitical conditions could deteriorate badly in the Middle East and Asia. America's reset toward Asia has alarmed the Chinese, who won't tolerate U.S. interference long term in the region. Then there's the possibility of a Black Swan event. If the S&P 500 drops 20%, the Fed will print more money, so that's not a huge downside risk. But the bond market could collapse, inflation could accelerate, or the Chinese economy could implode. Or we could have a destabilizing political event, or a pandemic''.
On his personal investments.
"'I keep 25% of my assets in equities. I haven't shorted anything yet, although I am tempted to short the S&P or the Russell 2000. I don't own U.S. stocks, but I hold some Asian shares, including Singapore real-estate investment trusts, which I will discuss momentarily. Markets in the Philippines, Indonesia, and Thailand have quadrupled from their postcrisis lows, and aren't attractive any more. But I still hold some shares in these markets with relatively high dividend yields.
I'm not keen on Chinese equities, but if conditions worsen and China prints money like crazy, the currency will weaken and stocks will rise. I own some issues in Hong Kong, but without great enthusiasm.
I figured the Japanese stock market would go ballistic as soon as the government weakened the yen, and that's what happened. Since the Oct. 15 low, the market is up more than 70% in yen terms and 35% in dollars—before the recent correction, that is. I bought brokers such asNomura [NMR], which has more than doubled in price. The Japanese market is correcting now, and the yen might rebound somewhat. But whereas the U.S. is near a long-term top, Japanese stocks made a generational low in 2012 and won't go below that''.
