"The spread between Bakken crude at the pipeline hub of Clearbrook, Minnesota and benchmark Light Louisiana Sweet fell from nearly $30 in early March to a then-record low of around $13 in May. Analysts estimate it costs $12 a barrel for the rail journey, about three times more than via pipelines.
This week the spread has dropped to just $6 a barrel after an outage at a Canada sands production unit.
As price spreads for moving sweet North Dakota or Canadian crude to premium markets on the GulfCoast slump to their lowest since early 2011, companies are shifting more oil back through pipelines rather than using costlier railcars.
The number of railcars loaded with crude or refined fuel per week in the United States has dropped by about 5 percent since reaching a record 14,500 tank cars during May, according to Reuters calculations based on data from the Association of American Railroads released on Thursday.
At 13,664 cars through June 8, the latest week's loadings are still up 28 percent from a year ago, equivalent to about 1.4 million bpd. With crude oil estimated to make up about half of all such shipments, that's about a tenth of U.S. production. Weekly AAR data do not distinguish between crude and refined fuels.
Still, the annual growth rate is much slower than the 50 percent surge since the start of the year. In the first quarter alone, crude oil shipments jumped by 166 percent to the equivalent of 760,000 bpd, AAR said last month. Since early 2011, traffic has been growing mostly steadily every week".
It is too soon to tell that it is the beginning of a bust. Time will tell.
