"The National Operator of the Electric System (ONS) again lowered its late October water level projection for the hydroelectric dams in the Northeast region to 25.1% from 26.1%. The previous projection was 26.8%, from 33.9% in the same period of last year and already considered critical.
The region's reservoirs are expected to end October at the worst level for the month since 2003, when they reached 18.97%. The current level is 27.8%. Experts believe more thermal plants will have be activated to meet the region's power needs. The scenario is intensified by the Northeast region's expected growth in power consumption. ONS increased the region's estimated growth to 8.3% from 8.1%, and calculates it will demand an average of 9,979MW in the month.
“As in previous months, the Northeast region will continue showing water flows well below the historical average for the month of October,” ONS said in its last weekly review of the Monthly Operation Plan.
The factor helping Brazil avoid a more serious situation is that reservoir levels in the Southeat/Central-West regions, which concentrate 70% of the country's capacity, are above the ones seen in October 2012. Southeast region dams are at 47.7%, from 42.8% in the same period of last year.
Experts consulted by Valor say the situation is worrying, but warning lights still haven't sounded off. “The big question is if the Southeast subsystem will continue committed to supply power to the Northeast,” says João Carlos Mello, director of consultancy Thymos Energia, noting that exporting power to the Northeast could drain even more the Southeast/Central-West reservoirs one month before the end of the dry season".
Valor International
