Sunday, 10 November 2013

China's (Small) Margin for Error

   According to a report from the Wall Street Journal,the latest October economic data show growth has stabilized since a spring slump.But 

Beijing Is in a Tight Spot for Managing Economy

Industrial production accelerated to 10.3% year on year. Retail sales remained solid. Exports grew 5.6% with a noticeable pickup to the U.S. and Europe, China's most important customers.
The latest October economic data show growth has stabilized since a spring slump. Industrial 
production accelerated to 10.3% year on year. Retail sales remained solid. Exports grew 5.6% with a noticeable pickup to the U.S. and Europe, China's most important customers.
Inflation is again on the scene,with consumer prices up 3.2% in October compared with the year earlier, the fastest rate since February and inching toward the government's full-year target of 3.5%. Vegetable prices, an important component of China's inflation basket, surged. Property prices remain bubbly.
To prevent inflation from becoming sticky, Beijing will need to keep credit scarce. The inflow of funds from a trade surplus that more than doubled in October to $31.1 billion compared with September signals the central bank has more excess liquidity to soak up. It may also mean continued currency appreciation.
China's economy is operating in a narrow comfort zone.
 Premier Li Keqiang said last month "China needs 7.2% growth to achieve the government's target of creating 10 million urban jobs a year". While some quibble with the precision of Mr. Li's figure, anything much lower than that and party officials worry the masses may get restless.
"On the upside, it appears China's economy can't grow much faster than the third quarter's 7.8% year-over-year pace without inflation rising. Let prices get loose, and again policy makers have to worry about social discontent".

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