US: ISM Manufacturing Index rose to 55.4

Prior strength in new orders is giving an increasing boost to current conditions for ISM's non-manufacturing sample where composite growth rose to 55.4 in October vs an already solid 54.4 in September. The business activity component shows special strength, at 59.7 vs September's 55.1. And in a boost for the outlook on Friday's jobs report, this report's employment index rose to 56.2 from 52.7 in what is one of the better readings of the year. Growth in new orders backed off but not much, with the index down from the near 60 level to 56.8 but this index had been very strong in the prior 3 months and peaked just over 60 in August. Other readings are mostly steady including prices which show easing pressure, at 56.1 for a more than 1 point decline. The ISM non-manufacturing report is pointing to building momentum in ongoing activity in what will boost expectations for fourth-quarter GDP. The government's first report on the third quarter will be posted on the Econoday calendar on Thursday morning. The Dow is moving off opening lows following today's report.

Market Consensus before announcement The composite index from the ISM non-manufacturing survey slipped in September to 54.4 from 58.6 in August and 56.0 in July to indicate sizable slowing in composite activity. This slowing follows a recovery best in August and a near recovery best in July and despite the slowing the rate of monthly growth is still very respectable. But activity may be improving in coming months. Growth in new orders was more than respectable, at 59.6 which aside from August's 60.5 was the best rate since the easy comparisons early in the recovery. New export orders were also very strong, at 57.5 for a big 7 point jump.