John Bolton calls the "peaceful rise" of China a fantasy, citing its expanding military budget as evidence for another more plausible theory, at least in his mind—a menacing rise to power. However, he misses the intensely human element in his analysis. It might benefit us all to remember an old German proverb from a century ago, "Speak loudly and brandish a big gun." Berlin neither wanted a war at first, nor to set up a German hegemony, but instead desired to sit at her rightful place among the European powers—to be heard as anyone else. Regarding the defense zone, Xi Jinping said he wanted to "treat neighbors with friendship and as partners," with a strong blue-water navy as a necessary means to this end. These were precisely the aims of Germany in the early 20th century. If Berlin's neighbors wouldn't behold her legitimacy with appropriate respect, then she would scare them into recognizing it, or in the words of Friedrich von Bernhardi, Europe would give Germany "that high esteem which is due them . . . and has hitherto been withheld from them." Interestingly, Mr. Bolton proposes containing China with "something akin to an alliance system," a strategy that ironically unraveled and doomed Europe. Wouldn't China cry einkreisung (encirclement), just as the Germans did, and accelerate its military plans with yet greater vigor, bearing us down the path of pre-World War I Europe to even darker tragedy?
Preston J. Juarez
From the Wall Street Journal
