US Personal Income and Outlays DATA FOR DECEMBER

Personal Income and Outlays

Released On 1/31/2014 8:30:00 AM For Dec, 2013 Prior Prior Revised Consensus Consensus Range Actual Personal Income - M/M change 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.0 % to 0.4 % 0.0 % Consumer Spending - M/M change 0.5 % 0.6 % 0.2 % 0.1 % to 0.4 % 0.4 % PCE Price Index -- M/M change 0.0 % 0.2 % 0.1 % to 0.3 % 0.2 % Core PCE price index - M/M change 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % to 0.2 % 0.1 % Personal Income - Yr/Yr change 2.3 % 2.3 % -0.8 % Consumer Spending - Yr/Yr change 3.5 % 3.3 % 3.6 % PCE Price Index -- Y/Y change 0.9 % 1.1 % Core PCE price index - Yr/Yr change 1.1 % 1.2 %

Highlights Personal income was flat in December while spending was up. Income sluggishness may have been weather related. Personal income was unchanged after rising 0.2 percent in November. Markets expected a 0.2 percent rise. The wages & salaries component posted flat in December, following a 0.5 percent boost the month before. Personal spending, however, was moderately strong, rising 0.4 percent after a 0.6 percent boost in November. Spending was led by a 1.5 percent jump in nondurables with services gaining 0.4 percent. Durables declined 1.8 percent after a 1.8 percent increase the month before. The rise in personal consumption was not just price related. Real spending increased 0.2 percent in December after an increase of 0.6 percent in November. Headline inflation warmed a bit with a reading of 0.2 percent after no change in November. Excluding food and energy, PCE price inflation posted at 0.1 percent in December, matching the November pace. On a year ago basis, headline inflation was 1.1 percent in December versus 0.9 percent the month before. Core inflation nudged up to 1.2 percent from 1.1 percent. The year ago numbers are still well below the Fed's goal of 2 percent inflation. Overall, the consumer is still contributing to the recovery in terms of spending. However, on the income side it likely is a good idea to wait for January data to see how much of income sluggishness was weather related even though soft employment growth was a contributing factor. SOURCE: BLOMMBERG