Thursday, 6 March 2014

WSJ. Macro Horizons: Crimea Secession up for Referendum; Markets Shrug it Off

            The Wall Street Journal reports,''on balance, it’s generally positive backdrop for markets in terms of the economic news that has been served up to them today. 
FRANCE: Q4 unemployment fell to 10.2% from 10.3% in Q3.
U.K.: February Halifax house price index rose 2.4% on the month and 7.9% on the year against forecasts of up 0.8% and up 7.3% respectively.
MALAYSIA: The central bank kept interest rates steady at 3% for the 17th consecutive meeting, as expected.
AUSTRALIA: Retail sales rose 1.2% in January from December and 6.2% on-year, far more than expected, while strong exports produced a larger-than-expected trade surplus.
  Even news that Crimea’s parliament voted to join Russia and to hold a referendum on the matter has had little impact on market sentiment''.
Earlier in the week global investors were worried about war. Now that it seems less likely, they can live with the idea that Crimea could secede from the Ukraine. Ukrainians might not like it, but there’s nothing they can do about a Crimean exit, and the impact on the world economy would be immaterial. All eyes now will turn to the Bank of England and the European Central Bank, who will make policy decisions within the next hour. But neither is expected to shift the policy lever – not this time around. 
UKRAINE: Crimea is to hold a referendum on whether to break away from Ukraine and to join Russia. Meanwhile, U.S. and European diplomats are holding inconclusive discussions on how to deal with Russia over the Ukrainian crisis.
After their wobble earlier this week, markets are shrugging off developments in Ukraine. The growing feeling is that neither Russia nor the West wants an open conflict over Ukraine’s future, which suggests it will be side-lined as a regional problem. Ukraine’s dismemberment–should Russia absorb Crimea and Ukraine’s ethnically Russian eastern province–would undoubtedly cause fresh friction, but Ukraine is in a weak position.  


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