The WSJ reports,"Until quite recently, China's aggressive moves in the South China Sea were widely viewed as the product of an erratic foreign policy driven by competing agencies in which hawkish players usually came out on top.
In Chinese policy circles this free-for-all was dubbed "The Nine Dragons stirring up the sea," and it replaced the more orderly—and far more friendly—approach to the region during the 1990s.
But the latest Chinese moves that have so alarmed the U.S. and China's neighbors—including, dramatically, the decision to drag an oil drilling platform into waters disputed with Vietnam—appear to be the result not of policy confusion but deliberate planning, say Chinese and foreign security analysts. They are most likely centrally coordinated at the highest level. Ultimately, they seem to bear the stamp of the country's president, Xi Jinping.
If that's the case, it suggests that China's unyielding approach to territorial disputes is now firmly entrenched. And it's much harder to see hope of compromise that's urgently needed to avoid an outbreak of more serious conflict in the region, whether by accident or design.
Mr. Xi heads a new security supercommittee set up late last year partly to bring order to a chaotic situation in which powerful groups that included the People's Liberation Army, maritime enforcement agencies and state-owned energy giants—collectively, the "Nine Dragons"—hijacked foreign policy for their own narrow purposes, such as grabbing a higher share of state budgets or enlarging their own business opportunities.
In doing so, these actors often bypassed the foreign ministry, which is supposed to take the wider view of China's national interests''.
"As head of the new National Security Commission Mr. Xi now seems to be stirring it up himself. And, since China's assertive moves can no longer be seen as tactical aberrations, the big question is what strategic purpose he is pursuing.
Mr. Xi is a nationalist. And at the core of the "China Dream" he has been promoting since he took office is the idea of restoring the country's traditional place of dominance in its own region before its "century of humiliation" at the hands of Western imperialists starting in the early 1800s. Among his goals are the recovery of what China regards as national territory lost to Japan, and maritime possessions that have been encroached upon by Southeast Asian countries, including Vietnam and the Philippines.
That much is easy to understand. What's baffling to many veteran China-watchers is the way that Mr. Xi, in asserting what China sees as its historic rights, is pushing ahead with what looks like a series of confrontations with multiple Asian countries all at the same time.
The security situation in the waters of China's periphery are, without doubt, even more tempestuous than when the "Nine Dragons" were thrashing around in competition with each other—and the outlook is for yet more turbulence. Chinese ships now regularly surge into waters surrounding the disputed Senkaku Islands controlled by Japan, which China calls the Diaoyus. This has strengthened anti-China right-wingers in Japan and has encouraged Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to promote a more muscular military stance. It's also enhanced Mr. Abe's standing in much of the region.
Likewise, drilling for oil off Vietnam, in an area not regarded as particularly promising in terms of the reserves it holds, is interpreted in Hanoi as a deliberate provocation driven by raw politics more than the quest for resources. The result: riots against Chinese businesses, and a setback for pro-China elements in the Vietnamese leadership.
Meanwhile, Chinese pressure on the Philippines has driven Manila to seek a U.N. legal ruling against China's territorial claims to the South China Sea, a move that if successful would be a diplomatic blow to China. Vietnam has said it is considering similar legal action.
On the surface, this may look reckless. But one theory gaining traction among senior officials and policy analysts around Asia and in Washington is that the timing is well calculated. It reflects Mr. Xi's belief that he is dealing with a weak U.S. president who won't push back, despite his strong rhetorical support for Asian allies.
Mr. Xi's perception, say these analysts, has been heightened by U.S. President Barack Obama's failures to intervene militarily in Syria and Ukraine. And it's led him to conclude that he has a window of opportunity to aggressively assert China's territorial claims around the region""".
