Wednesday, 2 July 2014

Corn nears 6-month low on big U.S. supply outlook

Chicago corn resumed its fall on Wednesday to approach a near six-month low hit on Tuesday due to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts of ample supplies along with almost ideal weather boosting U.S. crops.

Expectations China may end its corn stockpiling programme as it struggles with massive state reserves also weakened the market.

Soybeans ticked up in bargain hunting following Monday's sharp falls while wheat also held above Monday's lows.

Chicago Board Of Trade July corn fell 0.4 percent to $4.21-1/4 a bushel at 1103 GMT, after falling on Tuesday to $4.16, a contract low and the lowest spot price since Jan. 10.

New crop November soybeans rose 0.2 percent to $11.50-1/2 a bushel, after touching $11.32 a bushel on Tuesday, a 4-1/2 month low. September wheat was hardly changed, down 0.04 percent to $5.72-1/4 a bushel, after losing about 3.6 percent in the last two sessions.

"In corn, I think we are seeing weakness today as positioning is still being adjusted to reflect the new reality of more ample supplies in coming months as laid out by the USDA on Monday," said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank.

The USDA on Monday estimated U.S. 2014 soybean plantings at a record 84.8 million acres, exceeding market expectations. USDA estimates of June 1 soy and corn stocks also came in above average trade estimates.

The USDA's weekly crop progress report also showed U.S. corn condition ratings improved and soybean ratings were the highest in 20 years. Meanwhile, weather in the U.S. Midwest grain belt looks promising, with no sign of stressful heat as the corn crop nears pollination, a crucial growth phase that typically takes place in July.

"Grain and oilseed markets are in bearish tone after the USDA's forecast," said Kaname Gokon of brokerage Okato Shoji in Tokyo. "There is (the) possibility of further downside for new-crop contracts as importers are not buying at the current levels. December corn could go down $4.00 by next week and November soybeans may see $11.30 a bushel."

China is expected to scrap its corn stockpiling scheme as it battles to reduce mammoth state reserves which account for more than half of global stocks, possibly cutting lucrative U.S. corn exports to China already hit by Chinese rejections of corn cargoes containing unapproved genetically-modified grains.

But price drops also generated some purchase interest.

"In soybeans, November did manage to remain above the lows it reached in January this year in the sharp fall after the USDA numbers, which could be adding some confidence into the market," said Saxo Bank's Hansen. "We have seen soybean short positions increasing quite strongly in recent weeks so soybeans could be the sector where we would see some support arriving in the near term."

"Wheat did not really suffer from the same scale of bearish numbers...September wheat has also managed to hold above the lows it hit on Monday in the weakness following the USDA estimates so there is some bargain-hunting but with a fairly tight stop level as there could be moves to revisit the year's low in January."

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