London copper began the week little changed on Monday, broadly holding on to last week's 3 percent gains on tighter-than-expected supply.
London Metal Exchange copper stocks are near six-year lows, while production of refined copper has faltered due to a series of smelter outages this year. A six-month halt on exports from major producer Indonesia has exacerbated tight conditions.
"Most of the copper that was meant to be exported has been produced," said analyst Joel Crane of Morgan Stanley in Melbourne.
"It's going to come to market eventually. We just don't know when. If it comes to light that nothing is going to come out of Indonesia, that will be a game changer for copper this year."
Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchangewas steady at $7,145 a tonne by 0103 GMT from the previous session. Copper dipped on Friday but posted its biggest weekly gain since September, trimming year-to-date losses to 3 percent.
The most-traded September copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchangetraded down 0.2 percent at 51250 yuan
($8,300) a tonne, having hit five-month peaks last week.
Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Incis still in talks with Indonesia over a six-month dispute that has halted copper exports, and has no plan yet to follow Newmont Mining Corp in seeking international arbitration, it said last week.
Suggesting that miners may curb supply in the years ahead, Chilean state-owned miner Codelco may have to suspend some projects if the government decides not to provide the necessary financing, new board head Oscar Landerretche told a newspaper on Sunday.
On the demand side, global economic activity should strengthen in the second half of the year and accelerate in 2015, although momentum could be weaker than expected, International Monetary Fund chief Christine Lagarde said on Sunday, hinting at a slight cut in the IMF's growth forecasts.
Business activity in emerging markets expanded last month at its fastest rate since March 2013, boosted by strong growth in China and India, a survey showed on Monday.
"We had a challenging first quarter with the US coming out of its deep freeze and Europe seeing greater normalization, and now the EM economies ex-China have bottomed. Things are looking okay - I think 2015 should be even better," Crane added.
Investors have quietly turned more upbeat on copper. Comex copper speculators raised their net long position by 10,441 contracts to 24,767 in week to July 1, the most recent data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commision showed.
Some fund managers are increasing exposure to copper mining companies, betting the industry has reached the bottom of a downturn and that shares offer value for money.
"(While) copper could head back down towards $6,000/t, it is far closer to the end than the beginning of its bear market," said BNP Paribas in a note.
"Copper should bottom by mid-2015, when the increasingly positive longer-term picture will start coming into view."
Source: Reuters
London Metal Exchange copper stocks are near six-year lows, while production of refined copper has faltered due to a series of smelter outages this year. A six-month halt on exports from major producer Indonesia has exacerbated tight conditions.
"Most of the copper that was meant to be exported has been produced," said analyst Joel Crane of Morgan Stanley in Melbourne.
"It's going to come to market eventually. We just don't know when. If it comes to light that nothing is going to come out of Indonesia, that will be a game changer for copper this year."
Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange
The most-traded September copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange
($8,300) a tonne, having hit five-month peaks last week.
Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc
Suggesting that miners may curb supply in the years ahead, Chilean state-owned miner Codelco may have to suspend some projects if the government decides not to provide the necessary financing, new board head Oscar Landerretche told a newspaper on Sunday.
On the demand side, global economic activity should strengthen in the second half of the year and accelerate in 2015, although momentum could be weaker than expected, International Monetary Fund chief Christine Lagarde said on Sunday, hinting at a slight cut in the IMF's growth forecasts.
Business activity in emerging markets expanded last month at its fastest rate since March 2013, boosted by strong growth in China and India, a survey showed on Monday.
"We had a challenging first quarter with the US coming out of its deep freeze and Europe seeing greater normalization, and now the EM economies ex-China have bottomed. Things are looking okay - I think 2015 should be even better," Crane added.
Investors have quietly turned more upbeat on copper. Comex copper speculators raised their net long position by 10,441 contracts to 24,767 in week to July 1, the most recent data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commision showed.
Some fund managers are increasing exposure to copper mining companies, betting the industry has reached the bottom of a downturn and that shares offer value for money.
"(While) copper could head back down towards $6,000/t, it is far closer to the end than the beginning of its bear market," said BNP Paribas in a note.
"Copper should bottom by mid-2015, when the increasingly positive longer-term picture will start coming into view."
Source: Reuters
