Tuesday, 29 July 2014

U.S. natgas futures end up 1.6 pct on contract expiration

U.S. natural gas futures ended up 1.6 percent on Tuesday as some short traders closed out their positions ahead of the expiration of the August contract.

After falling for seven of the last eight trading days, the front-month August futures on the CME NYMEX closed up 6.1 cents, or 1.6 percent, at $3.808 per mmBtu.

August traded between $3.72, which was a fresh eight-month low, and $3.83 on Tuesday, moving out of oversold territory for the first time in 17 days. That was the longest the front month had remained in oversold territory in more than four years.

The Relative Strength Index, climbed to 33.1 from 22.1 on Monday. An RSI under 30 is considered oversold.

The September contract, which becomes the front month on Wednesday, ended up six cents at $3.82.

The front month has lost more than 20 percent since hitting a four-month high of $4.71 in mid June owing to record production and stock builds, and to a lack of hot summer weather and lower-than-normal air conditioning demand.

After falling for six straight weeks last week, the longest stretch of weekly declines in more than four years, the front month was up 1 percent so far this week, down 15 percent for the month and off 10 percent for the year.

In early estimates, analysts forecast utilities added about 93 billion cubic feet of gas to storage last week. [EIA/GAS]

MDA Weather Services forecast cool weather will linger over the eastern two-thirds of the United States over the next 15 days.

That is in line with U.S. weather models predicting cooler-than-normal temperatures over the next two weeks, with 184 cooling degree days, versus a normal of 199 for this time of year, according to Thomson Reuters Analytics.

On the NYMEX, the premium of front-month gas over spot Appalachian coal edged up to $1.29 from $1.23 on Monday. A gas premium over $2 makes it economic for utilities to burn coal.

On the IntercontinentalExchange, next-day gas at the Henry Hub , the benchmark supply point in Louisiana, lost seven cents to average $3.75, a fresh eight-month low.

Next-day New York gas lost about 23 cents to $2.31, while Chicago citygates lost eight cents to a new eight-month low of $3.79, and the Southern California Border lost three cents to $4.12.

In power markets, next-day Mid Columbia in the Pacific Northwest held steady at $46 per megawatt hour, while PJM West in the Mid-Atlantic lost about $4 to a nine-month low of $34.

Source: Reuters

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