Energy; Cos’è il fracking (o fratturazione idraulica)

Fracking è il termine inglese usato per definire la tecnica controversa della fratturazione idraulica (hydraulic fracturing) inventata già agli inizi del Novecento per estrarre gas naturale e petrolio dalle rocce di scisto, cioè quelle presenti nel sottosuolo che si sfaldano più facilmente.

Come funziona il fracking

La tecnica della fratturazione idraulica consiste nel perforare il terreno fino a raggiungere le rocce che contengono i giacimenti di gas naturale e successivamente iniettare un getto ad alta pressione di acqua mista a sabbia e altri prodotti chimici per provocare l’emersione in superfice del gas.

Il processo può essere intrapreso sia sfruttando fori già esistenti ed estendere la loro lunghezza, sia creandone di nuovi.

Cosa c’è che non va

L’uso massiccio del fracking negli Stati Uniti ha rivoluzionato il settore energetico, ma ha anche destato preoccupazioni sul fronte ambientale.

Il primo è l’enorme quantità di acqua che deve essere trasportata nei siti di esplorazione e usata per l’estrazione del gas causando sprechi e costi ambientali significativi.

Il secondo è l’utilizzo di sostanze chimiche potenzialmente dannose per la salute umana che potrebbero contaminare le falde acquifere presenti intorno all’area di estrazione. Solo l’80 per cento del liquido iniettato nel foro torna in superficie come acqua di riflusso, il resto rimane nel sottosuolo.

Il terzo è la possibilità che esista una correlazione tra il fracking e il verificarsi di scosse di lieve entità. Un caso che viene spesso citato è quello del 6 novembre 2011 quando un terremoto di magnitudo 5,7 ha colpito lo stato americano dell’Oklahoma dopo che un impianto aveva iniettato acqua ad alta pressione nel sottosuolo.

Le organizzazioni ambientaliste pensano che questa tecnica, che ancora una volta sfrutta i combustibili fossili, sia l’ennesima trovata delle compagnie petrolifere per costringere i governi a ritardare l’adozione di politiche energetiche basate sulle fonti rinnovabili, le uniche considerate sicure, pulite e inesauribili.

Perché i governi ci credono

Stati Uniti e Canada hanno trovato nel fracking una tecnica per aumentare la produzione energetica interna e ridurre la dipendenza da paesi terzi poco stabili. Secondo le previsioni, il gas estratto in questo modo potrebbe aumentare l’autosufficienza energetica dell’America del Nord e tagliare la domanda di altre fonti più sporche come il carbone per circa cento anni.

Il fracking in Italia, in Europa

Il gas di scisto è presente in molti stati occidentali oltre a Stati Uniti e Canada. In Europa, si trova soprattutto nei paesi orientali, dai Balcani alla Polonia, per non parlare della Germania. Alcuni giacimenti sono presenti anche in Spagna e in Italia, in particolare in Emilia Romagna. Pozzi già attivi si trovano in Ucraina e da poco anche nel Regno Unito.

Nel nostro paese, la commissione Ambiente della Camera dei deputati ha approvato una risoluzione che esclude ogni attività legata al fracking. La decisione, assunta in base al principio di precauzione, è simile a quella presa da altri paesi europei in attesa di conoscere meglio le conseguenze ambientali di questa forma di estrazione del gas.

Fonte: Lifegate.it

And this post shows what where the maritime boundaries Perú expected .

Map presented by Alain Pellet in the case of Peru – Chile during oral arguments before the International Court of Justice in the Hague in December 2012. [The dark blue zone indicates the contentious area.] Published in Wikimedia under the license: Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported.

The upcoming date on which the International Court of Justice [en] (ICJ) in The Hague is set to deliver its judgment regarding the controversy surrounding maritime boundaries between Chile and Peru [en] is generating tremendous expectations and anxiety in both countries. 

The controversy originated as long ago as 1985 in a dispute over maritime sovereignty [en] of a 37,900 km² area in the Pacific Ocean. In 2008, when the parties were still unable to come to an agreement, Peru took its case to the International Court in the Hague in the hopes of having the issue resolved. The Court announced it would deliver its ruling on January 27, 2014.

Fallo sobre frontera maritima entre el Perú y Chile de la CIJ de La Haya

Por 15 a 1, la CIJ no se pronunció sobre el triángulo externo, porque ya está incluido en la zona marítima fijada 

     

La Corte Internacional de Justicia (CIJ) de La Haya definió hoy que la frontera marítima entre el Perú y Chile se inicie en el hito número 1 y se proyecte en paralelo hasta las 80 millas marinas. En este punto, el tribunal definió una línea equidistante.

Por 15 a 1, el tribunal no se pronunció sobre el triángulo externo, porque ya está incluido en la zona marítima fijada. 

Tras la decisión de la CIJ, el statu quo en la zona cambia. La corte le otorgó al Perú una zona marítima a la cual antes no teníamos acceso. 

     

Investigative Stories Delve Into the Use of Offshore Companies by Chinese

The first big China investigative story of the year has come from the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists, which on Tuesday published, in tandem with several Western news organizations, a detailed look at the widespread use of offshore companies and tax havens by Chinese businesspeople and relatives of Communist Party leaders.

The investigation into Chinese activity primarily in the British Virgin Islands originated with a trove of financial documents leaked to the consortium, a non-profit group based in Washington. On Wednesday, the group published in both English and Chinese its second big story on China, a case study of a former Chinese oil industry executive who set up dozens of shell companies in the Cayman Islands, Bermuda and the British Virgin Islands. The report also said that the leaked documents show China’s three large state-owned oil companies — the biggest players in an industry rife with corruption — and executives at those enterprises set up dozens of offshore shell companies between 1995 and 2008.

The case study lays out how Sun Tiangang, the former executive, made a fortune as an entrepreneur in the oil industry before having his main company and its assets seized by former employees allied with powerful state interests. The reporters, Alexa Olesen and Michael Hudson, based their narrative on interviews with Mr. Sun and on a lawsuit he filed last year in a United States district court in Los Angeles against Sinopec, one of the three giant Chinese state-owned oil enterprises and the fourth-biggest company in the world.

In the lawsuit, Mr. Sun accused Sinopec of working with police officials to illegally imprison him for five years, starting in 2005, and strip him of a company in the British Virgin Islands he had set up in connection to a profitable oil pipeline contract in the western Chinese region of Xinjiang. Even after Mr. Sun was released from jail in 2010, the lawsuit said, he was kept under a form of house arrest for two more years.

The lawsuit said Sinopec did not want to honor the  20-year contract and had built its own pipeline to move oil from the Tahe field in Xinjiang. Sinopec did not respond to repeated requests for comment from the reporters. Lawyers for the defendant have asked the U.S. court to dismiss the lawsuit because it is “a quintessentially foreign dispute,” according to a court filing.

Mr. Sun’s colorful tale brings into the spotlight many questionable practices common to business in China. One is the use of so-called reverse mergers to get Chinese companies listed on stock exchanges, but in a way that masks their identity and core business. This practice of backdoor listings has come under growing scrutiny by American officials. Mr. Sun got his oil pipeline joint venture onto the Hong Kong Stock Exchange by folding the British Virgin Islands company he had started, which was the majority shareholder in the oil pipeline business, into a food company that was listed on the exchange in 2001. Mr. Sun then changed the listed company’s name to GeoMaxima Holdings and spun off the food business.

The article explained that this was a way around what Mr. Sun regarded as onerous restrictions. At the time, companies registered in the British Virgin Islands could not list in Hong Kong, nor could a mainland-registered company unless it had approval from officials in Beijing, which was difficult to secure.

The overview published on Tuesday of Chinese use of offshore shell companies said that there are legitimate reasons to set up such companies. The practice started becoming popular among Chinese businesspeople in the 1990s because the executives wanted, among other things, to get around strict capital controls and investment laws that favored foreign companies over domestic ones.

But there are more shadowy motivations too. The companies are tax shelters, and they can also hide the identities of important stakeholders. Mr. Sun said that setting up a company in the British Virgin Islands costs just a few hundred dollars and “gives very strong cover” by allowing the real owner to stay off stage.

Forty percent of offshore business in the British Virgin Islands comes from China and other Asian nations, the report said, citing officials in the islands. Among the clients are executives at the three Chinese oil giants: the China Petroleum and Chemical Corporation, or Sinopec; the China National Petroleum Corporation, or PetroChina; and the China National Offshore Oil Company, or Cnooc. The report said there were no signs of illegal activity by these executives or the oil enterprises, but the secretive nature of the offshore companies makes it difficult to pinpoint why the companies were set up.

Executives at PetroChina have been detained as part of a wide-ranging corruption investigation by Communist Party officials. Party insiders say the main target of the investigation is Zhou Yongkang, the former member of the ruling Politburo Standing Committee who worked in the oil industry and, later, oversaw the domestic security agencies.

Two smaller companies implicated in the PetroChina investigation have ties to offshore shell companies that show up in the leaked documents.

Hua Bangsong, the founder of one of the two implicated companies, Wison Engineering Services, listed in Hong Kong, incorporated three Wison-related companies in the British Virgin Islands in 2003. Wison suspended its public trading in September and announced that Chinese officials had seized some books and records and had frozen some of its bank accounts as part of the investigation. It has said Mr. Hua is cooperating with officials.

The other company implicated in the investigation that has links to a British Virgin Islands company is Zhongxu Investment Co. Ltd., which manages gas stations for PetroChina and runs hydropower plants. Caixin, a respected Chinese news magazine, reported that Wu Bing, the head of Zhongxu, was taken away from the Beijing West Railway Station on Aug. 1 and has not been seen since.

Source: Sinosphere

U.S. Census Bureau Economic Indicators report

New Resisdential Sales
Sales of new single-family houses in December 2013 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 414,000. This is 7.0 percent (+/- 17.5%)* below the revised November 2013 estimate of 445,000.

New Residential Construction 

Privately-owned housing starts in December 2013 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 999,000. This is 9.8 percent (+/- 10.7%)* below the revised November 2013 estimate of 1,107,000.

U.S. New Home Sales fell 2.1% in November

New Home Sales

Released On 1/27/2014 10:00:00 AM For Dec, 2013 Prior Prior Revised Consensus Consensus Range Actual New Home Sales - Level - SAAR 464 K 445 K 450 K 420 K to 471 K 414 K

Market Consensus before announcement New home sales fell 2.1 percent in a deceptive November reading where the 464,000 annual sales rate exceeded what were solid expectations but looked soft against a sharply upward revised October, now at 474,000 versus an initial reading of 444,000. Underscoring the October revision was an even sharper upward revision to September, to 403,000 from 354,000. One factor favoring sellers is supply which was very thin at 4.3 months at the current sales rate versus 4.5 months in October. New homes on the market fell 12,000 in the month to 167,000.

Source: Bloomberg

Next move in U.S. stocks for direction?

       According to a report from the Wall Street Journal "turmoil in emerging markets last week smacked stocks across the globe, leaving many investors worried that the selloff will get worse before it gets better".

The Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled 3% over two days and notched its worst weekly loss in more than two years. The tumult has carried over into Asian and European trading on Monday, as Japan’s Nikkei fell below 15000 for the first time since mid-November and ended the day at a two-month low. European markets opened lower across the board, with the FTSE 100 the heaviest faller.

“This correction differs from your run of the mill,” said Sebastien Galy, a New York-based senior foreign-exchange strategist at Societe Generale.

Many traders are looking at the next move in U.S. stocks for direction on how steep the global pullback will get. The S&P 500 dropped to 1790 on Friday and closed below its 50-day moving average, a technical indicator that many traders use as confirmation of the market’s short-term direction. Holding above this chart line is generally a bullish sign, whereas falling below the indicator suggests tougher times ahead.

The 50-day moving average is “on everyone’s radar screen,” said Frank Cappelleri, a sales trader at brokerage firm Instinet.

But, he acknowledged it’s still too soon to suggest a much bigger correction is coming. Recent forays below the 50-day average have been followed by quick rebounds higher, a pattern that has played out repeatedly over the past few years.

That’s why Mr. Cappelleri is reluctant to say stocks are poised for a steep pullback.

“I’m not ready to make that call,” Mr. Cappelleri said. “If you looked at any of these indicators as a reason to get out of the market over the past 14 months, you would have been wrong. I’m giving the market the benefit of the doubt.”

In more than a year, the S&P 500 has broken below its 50-day moving average five times — December 2012, and April, June, August and October of 2013. In each instance, the index bottomed within a week, and in some cases on the same day.

The lowest close below the 50-day moving average during that time was 2.7% on June 24, after a three-day run below the indicator. The market suddenly reversed course, with the S&P 500 rising in 12 of the next 14 sessions, rallying 7% during that stretch.

But now, the market is significantly higher than it was then. And many investors say stocks are long overdue for a significant pullback. The S&P 500 hasn’t had at least a 10% drop since the summer of 2011.

Turmoil in emerging markets last week smacked stocks across the globe, leaving many investors worried that the selloff will get worse before it gets better.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled 3% over two days and notched its worst weekly loss in more than two years. The tumult has carried over into Asian and European trading on Monday, as Japan’s Nikkei fell below 15000 for the first time since mid-November and ended the day at a two-month low. European markets opened lower across the board, with the FTSE 100 the heaviest faller.

“This correction differs from your run of the mill,” said Sebastien Galy, a New York-based senior foreign-exchange strategist at Societe Generale.

Many traders are looking at the next move in U.S. stocks for direction on how steep the global pullback will get. The S&P 500 dropped to 1790 on Friday and closed below its 50-day moving average, a technical indicator that many traders use as confirmation of the market’s short-term direction. Holding above this chart line is generally a bullish sign, whereas falling below the indicator suggests tougher times ahead.

The 50-day moving average is “on everyone’s radar screen,” said Frank Cappelleri, a sales trader at brokerage firm Instinet.

But, he acknowledged it’s still too soon to suggest a much bigger correction is coming. Recent forays below the 50-day average have been followed by quick rebounds higher, a pattern that has played out repeatedly over the past few years.

That’s why Mr. Cappelleri is reluctant to say stocks are poised for a steep pullback.

“I’m not ready to make that call,” Mr. Cappelleri said. “If you looked at any of these indicators as a reason to get out of the market over the past 14 months, you would have been wrong. I’m giving the market the benefit of the doubt.”

In more than a year, the S&P 500 has broken below its 50-day moving average five times — December 2012, and April, June, August and October of 2013. In each instance, the index bottomed within a week, and in some cases on the same day.

The lowest close below the 50-day moving average during that time was 2.7% on June 24, after a three-day run below the indicator. The market suddenly reversed course, with the S&P 500 rising in 12 of the next 14 sessions, rallying 7% during that stretch.

But now, the market is significantly higher than it was then. And many investors say stocks are long overdue for a significant pullback. The S&P 500 hasn’t had at least a 10% drop since the summer of 2011.

London Metal Exchange Data

London Metal Exchange
Aluminium Alloy Cash Unofficial $/m tonne			Mon 12:00	1810.00	-9.50		-0.5
Aluminium Alloy 3mo Unofficial $/m tonne			Mon 12:00	1810.00	-25.00		-1.4
Primary Aluminium Cash Unofficial $/m tonne			Mon 12:00	1726.00	-0.25		-0.0
Primary Aluminium 3mo Unofficial $/m tonne			Mon 12:15	1756.00	-6.50		-0.4
Copper Cash Unofficial $/m tonne			Mon 12:50	7230.00	-9.75		-0.1
Copper 3mo Unofficial $/m tonne			Mon 12:50	7200.00	+20.00		+0.3
Lead Cash Unofficial $/m tonne			Mon 12:00	2145.00	-0.25		-0.0
Lead 3mo Unofficial $/m tonne			Mon 12:25	2147.50	-19.75		-0.9
N. American Special Alum Alloy Cash Unofficial $/m tonne			Mon 12:00	1820.00	+0.50		+0.0
N. American Special Alum Alloy 3mo Unofficial $/m tonne			Mon 12:00	1820.50	-24.50		-1.3
Nickel Cash Unofficial $/m tonne			Mon 12:00	14550.00	-2.50		-0.0
Nickel 3mo Unofficial $/m tonne			Mon 12:40	14317.50	-167.50		-1.2
Tin Cash Unofficial $/m tonne			Mon 12:00	22100.00	-12.50		-0.1
Tin 3mo Unofficial $/m tonne			Mon 12:10	21800.00	-212.50		-1.0
Zinc Cash Unofficial $/m tonne			Mon 12:00	2019.00	+0.25		+0.0
Zinc 3mo Unofficial $/m tonne			Mon 12:00	2020.00	-0.50		-0.0
Source:  BBC

LONDON MIDDAY: BG GROUP DRAGS FTSE 100 TO SIX-WEEK LOW

UK stocks dropped to their lowest levels in nearly six weeks on Monday amid ongoing concerns about the outlook for emerging markets such as Argentina, South Africa and Turkey.

Losses in Asia overnight may also have been fuelled in part by worries over an imminent default by a high-yield Chinese investment trust product.

BG Group was leading the top-tier index lower this morning after disappointing investors with a gloomy outlook for 2014; losses from heavyweights Vodafone, ARM Holdings and ITV were also providing a drag.

"Many predicted the markets would come under pressure in January after a rampant end to 2013, but the FTSE seemed to be plain sailing towards all-time highs early last week, only to nosedive comfortably into the red for 2014 since," said Toby Morris, Senior Sales Trader at CMC Markets.

The FTSE 100 was down 1.4% at 6,570 by midday; it has not closed below this level since December 18th.

London's benchmark index has now fallen by 3.8% over the past three sessions alone as ongoing volatility in emerging-market currency markets, concerns about economic growth in China and nervousness ahead of this week's Federal Reserve policy meeting caused investors to scale back risk appetite significantly.

In contrast, so-called 'safe-haven' assets such as gold and US Treasuries have in turn benefited, while stocks in defensive sectors such as real estate, tobacco and utilities have held up relatively well.

BG Group plummets on "very disappointing" guidance

Natural gas producer BG Group has said that 2013 results will be in line with expectations, but production and profits this year will likely be lower due to "short-term issues" in Egypt and the US. The stock sank as much as 15% this morning after Chief Executive Chris Finlayson labelled the group's guidance as "very disappointing".

Oil and gas groups Afren and Cairn Energy were dragged lower after the update, along with oilfield services firms AMEC and Petrofac.

US telecoms giant AT&T quashed talk about a takeover of Vodafone by ruling out a bid for the British mobile phone company, sending shares in the latter into negative territory. Over the past few months, there had been speculation that AT&T would stage a bid for Vodafone to expand its presence in the European market.

ARM Holdings was in the red after saying that it has appointed Stuart Chambers as Chairman to replace John Buchanan who is stepping down due to a medical condition.

Citigroup pressured terrestrial broadcaster ITV lower after cutting its rating from 'neutral' to 'sell', naming it as one of its least preferred stocks in the European media sector.

RSA Insurance Group dropped after The Sunday Times reported it is considering scrapping its final dividend to raise £500 to fill a balance-sheet loss.

Defensive stocks, often seen as relatively stable investments in times of market volatility, were benefitting this morning from a reduction in risk appetite. Property group Land Securities, tobacco giant Imperial and utility firms Severn Trent and United Utilities were among the best performers.

Source: LiveCharts

Continued sell-off in emerging market currencies

EMERGING MARKETS12:47: 

Emerging markets stocks are heading for their worst day in six months according to the Financial Times. "At the moment you can't stop the rot," the paper quotes Christian Lawrence, strategist at Rabobank as saying. "The momentum is with the continued sell-off in emerging market currencies.

Chinese New Year: Baidu tracks 1.3 billion urban exodus

As billions of Chinese people prepare to celebrate the new year, social network Baidu - often referred to as "China's Google" - has been tracking the mass movement of people out of the country's cities and into the countryside.

The interactive map, which is updated hourly, has been made by logging where data requests were made to its maps service and other apps that use its location technologies.

The thicker, brighter lines are the busiest routes.

An estimated 1.3 billion people make this kind of journey every year - with millions more travelling in from abroad to join the celebrations, which kick off on Friday.

At this time of year, Beijing's main train station is frequently referred to by locals as the "busiest place on the planet".

LG Electronics fourth-quarter profit doubles on year-end sales of high-end TVs

South Korea's LG Electronics Inc beat analyst estimates by doubling quarterly profit thanks to year-end holiday spending on high-end TVs, brushing off a loss in its smartphone business.

The world's second-biggest TV maker after Samsung Electronics Co Ltd has been promoting its most profitable sets in advanced economies where consumers are more willing to pay higher prices, but where sales growth has stagnated.

The manufacturer has also spent heavily marketing high-end smartphones in its quest to catch up with leaders Samsung and Apple Inc, which in the fourth quarter was at the expense of profitability.

LG, which also makes microwaves and vacuum cleaners, hopes the spending will lead to overall revenue of 62.3 trillion won ($57.67 billion) this year, 7 percent more than last year.

That would come after October-December operating profit reached 238 billion won, LG said in a statement on Monday, beating the 223 billion won estimate of 35 analysts polled by Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

The figure also compared with the 218 billion won of July-September and 117 billion won of a year earlier, when marketing and supply chain management problems affected profit at its TV unit.

"Even as the global TV market shrank in the last quarter, we were able to achieve higher profit thanks to increased sales of high-end models in North America and Europe," Chief Financial Officer Jung Do-hyun said at an earnings briefing.

"We plan to boost profit further this year by expanding premium line-ups, but risks remain due largely to growing volatility in emerging-market currencies, which was one of the major factors hitting our bottom line last year."

LG, which last year launched TVs with curved next-generation technology displays, said operating profit at its TV business reached 174 billion won from just 800 million won a year prior.

LG is hoping a shift toward premium models will help it cope with a slowdown in global TV sales, and increase its competitiveness against Japanese rival Sony Corp whose products were made cheaper in some economies by a weak yen.

TVs generated 40 percent of revenue in the fourth quarter. Mobile devices accounted for 24 percent and home appliances 19 percent. The remainder came from its air conditioning unit and other operations.

LG, whose G2 and G Pro smartphones challenge Samsung's Galaxy line and Apple's iPhones, shipped a record 13.2 million smartphones in the fourth quarter, up 54 percent on year.

Even so, its mobile business swung to an operating loss of 43 billion won from profit of 56 billion won.

"We substantially increased mobile marketing in the third and fourth quarter and the amount hit a record level last quarter. We'll continue to invest heavily on marketing, as we don't think it will take just one year to strengthen our brand equity," Yoon Bu-hyun, vice president of the mobile business, said at the briefing.

CFO Jung said he expects the marketing investment to show results from the second half of this year.

Next month, LG plans to release the latest version of its high-end G Pro large-screen smartphone, a segment where competition is set to peak if Apple enters later this year, as widely expected.

China Moon rover Jade Rabbit in trouble

China's Jade Rabbit Moon rover is in trouble after experiencing a "mechanical control abnormality", state media report.

The Moon exploration vehicle ran into problems due to the moon's "complicated lunar surface environment", Xinhua news agency said, citing science officials.

The rover landed in December as part of China's Chang'e-3 mission - the first "soft" landing on the Moon since 1976.

It was expected to operate for around three months.

Earlier this month, the Beijing Aerospace Control Centre said that Jade Rabbit, also known as Yutu, had successfully explored the surface of the Moon with its mechanical arm.

Lunar night

The malfunction emerged before the rover entered its scheduled dormancy period on Saturday, Xinhua reported, citing the State Administration of Science, Technology and Industry for National Defence (SASTIND).

Scientists were organising repairs, the news agency added, without providing further details.

The rover was due to become dormant for 14 days during the lunar night, when there would be no sunlight to power the rover's solar panel, reports said.

The malfunctioning rover presents the first public mishap China's ambitious space programme has experienced in years, following several successful manned space flights, the BBC's Celia Hatton in Beijing reports.

Xinhua said the news of the rover's troubles had generated extensive discussion on Chinese social media.

"People not only hailed the authority's openness to the accident, but also expressed concern," it said.

On Sina Weibo, China's largest microblog provider, users began tagging their posts with the hash tag "#hang in there Jade Rabbit".

Users also circulated comic strips depicting a rabbit on the Moon, andrabbit-themed pictures, while expressing their support for the rover.

Source: Reuters

German business morale hits top level in 2-1/2 years

German business morale climbed in January to its highest level since July 2011, suggesting Europe's largest economy is on track for a strong start to 2014 after growing only modestly last year.

The Munich-based Ifo think tank's business climate index, based on a monthly survey of some 7,000 firms, rose for a third straight month to 110.6, beating a Reuters consensus forecast for 110.0 and up more than a full point from a December reading of 109.5.

Ifo economist Klaus Wohlrabe said the strong survey suggested the German economy could grow by 0.5 percent in the first three months of the year. That would be a major improvement on the fourth quarter, when the economy is estimated to have grown by around a quarter of a percentage point.

Surveys last week showed the German private sector growing at its fastest pace in more than 2-1/2 years and investor morale staying close to its highest level in nearly eight years, pointing to decent growth at the start of 2014.

"German businesses remain diehard optimists," said ING economist Carsten Brzeski.

But he warned that the economy's performance last year was not as strong as "soft" privately-produced survey evidence would have suggested.

Still, the latest hard data has shown increases in industrial output, orders, exports and retail sales.

While Germany was a growth locomotive in the early years of the euro zone crisis, its performance tailed off over the last two years and it only managed an expansion of 0.4 percent in 2013, its worst performance since the global financial crisis.

But economists predict gross domestic product (GDP) will increase by around 1.7 percent this year thanks to strong domestic demand while exports are also expected to pick up. Berlin is considering raising its forecast to 1.8 percent from 1.7 percent, a German magazine reported at the weekend.

Source: Reuters

Japan Trade Deficit Worst on Record

Japan logged a record trade deficit for all of 2013, the third straight year of red ink, as Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's efforts to lift exports and reverse a long-standing trend toward greater overseas production have so far failed to make much headway.

Some economists say the continuing string of deficits, despite a sharp 18% weakening of the yen, shows that Japan's trading patterns have shifted, with big manufacturers continuing to keep production overseas. While the high value of the yen from 2008 to 2012 has been cited as a factor, companies such as Toyota Motor Co. have said that they want to have production tied as closely as possible to the markets for their goods.

"Contrary to expectations held by many, exports are unlikely to lead the economy higher," said Meiji Yasuda Life Insurance chief economist Yuichi Kodama. "This trade structure will likely remain unchanged for a while," he said.

The government figures released Monday showed that the deficit in December was ¥1.302 trillion ($12.73 billion), double the year-ago figure. That pushed the full-year trade gap to ¥11.475 trillion, the largest ever under the current statistical format dating back to 1979.

The yen's sharp depreciation, as a result of aggressive monetary easing by the Bank of Japan, has increased the value of exports, which jumped 15.3% in December from year-ago levels, but export volumes have been largely static, as companies have opted to keep overseas prices unchanged to increase profits instead of trying to boost their market share.At the same time, imports have surged, rising 24.7% in December from the same 2012 period.

Much of the increase has been attributed to the rise in fossil fuel imports that has occurred since the March 2011 Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident led to the idling of all of Japan's 50 nuclear power plants.

The latest figures also suggest that buying patterns may be changing. Sales of products, 's Inc.'s iPhone, have been buoyant despite the weaker