Activity in China's factory sector contracted in January for the first time in six months, a preliminary survey showed on Thursday, pointing to a weak start for the economy in 2014 as policymakers seek to curb high debt levels to head off financial risks.
Weighed down by weaker domestic and export demand, the flash Markit/HSBC Purchasing Managers' Index (PM) fell to 49.6 in January from December's final reading of 50.5, dropping below the 50 line which separates expansion of activity from contraction.
The data is the first indication of sentiment in the 56.9 trillion yuan ($9.4 trillion)economy, the world's second-largest, for the new year.
"Such a reading highlights the deteriorating growth outlook as policymakers are tightening their monetary stance, pushing through with an austerity campaign, and withdrawing stimulus measures," said Dariusz Kowalczyk, a senior economist and strategist for Credit Agricole CIB in Hong Kong.
"The reading points to a further slowdown in manufacturing and the entire economy in Q214. We maintain our below-consensus forecast for 2014 GDP growth of 7.2 percent."
The Australian dollar dropped to a session low of $0.8800 from around $0.8838 just before the data. China is Australia's single biggest export market.
Most Asian share markets extended early losses.
The CSI300 .CSI300 index of the largest Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share listings fell 0.32 percent, while Hong Kong shares tumbled 1.2 percent.
Rising money market rates and bond yields since the middle of last year indicate China's central bank is committed to deleveraging in the economy to fend off potential risks, but it has so far refrained from tightening policy abruptly.
"The marginal contraction of January's headline HSBC flash China manufacturing PMI was mainly dragged by cooling domestic demand conditions," said Qu Hongbin, chief economist for China at HSBC.
"This implies softening growth momentum for manufacturing sectors, which has already weighed on employment growth. As inflation is not a concern, the policy focus should tilt towards supporting growth to avoid repeating growth deceleration seen in 1H 2013."
The flash PMI showed a faster rate of decrease in new export orders and employment in January. The new orders index came in at 49.8, the first contraction in six months.
PMI surveys at the end of last year had confirmed slowing momentum, with the HSBC/Markit one showing a three-month low and the government's official PMI at a four-month low. Both cited weak new export orders as one of the main reasons for the dip.
A Reuters visit to southern China's manufacturing heartlands this month showed many factories have closed earlier than usual for the upcoming Lunar New Year, the nation's biggest holiday, discouraged by weak orders and rising costs.
"There is, theoretically, a possibility of a Lunar New Year effect, but even in 2012, when the holiday also fell in January, the HSBC PMI rose. Hence, we assume that the weakening of mood is cyclical and reflects underlying weakening of growth momentum."
Sources with top think-tanks have said the government likely will stick with the 7.5 percent target this year, indicating the leadership is still keen to keep the economy on an even keel as they push reforms.
Premier Li Keqiang said in a written address to the World Economic Forum in Davos that China will continue to deepen reforms and maintain steady economic growth this year, and also take more forceful measures to boost employment.
The HSBC/Markit PMI is more weighted towards smaller and private companies than the official one, which contains more large and state-owned firms.
The final HSBC/Markit manufacturing PMI for January is due on January 30 and the official manufacturing PMI is set for release on February 1.
Source: Reuters
