In his book, Breakout Nations: In Pursuit of the Next Economic Miracles, which has just been published in Chinese as well as in a paperback edition, Ruchir Sharma, head of emerging market equities at Morgan Stanley and leading economic commentator, makes the case that China alone among the BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) will make it to the next stage.
He believes it will be able to move on from its 2012 per capita income level of $6,091, according to the World Bank, to around $20,000 within 15 years, providing a comfortably high income.
He makes the point, however, that it will be easier for China to move up the ladder if it sets its growth targets lower at a more sustainable 5 to 6 percent.
Chasing higher rates of growth through excessive investment in infrastructure, he argues, carries the risk of a bust that could see it behaving like a yo-yo in the middle-income trap like many other countries before it.
Source: ChinaDaily
