The IEA in its latest report International Energy 2013 Outlook projects that "total world energy
use rises from 524 quadrillion British thermal units(Btu) in 2010 to 630 quadrillion Btu in 2020
and to quadrillion Btu in 2040".
Much of the growth in energy consumption occurs in the BRIC economies Brazil,Russia,India and China.
"Energy use in non-OECD countries increases by 90 percent; in OECD countries, the increase is 17 percent".
Renewable energy and nuclear power are the world's fastest-growing energy source.However, fossil fuels continue to supply almost 80 percent of world energy use through 2040. Natural gas is the fastest-growing fossil fuel in the outlook. Global natural gas consumption increases by 1.7 percent per year. Increasing supplies of tight gas, shale gas, and coalbed methane support growth in projected worldwide natural gas use. Coal use grows faster than petroleum and other liquid fuel use until after 2030, mostly because of increases in China's consumption of coal and tepid growth in liquids demand attributed to slow growth in the OECD regions and high sustained oil prices.
The industrial sector continues to account for the largest share of delivered energy consumption; the world industrial sector still consumes over half of global delivered energy in 2040. Given current policies and regulations limiting fossil fuel use, worldwide energy-related carbon dioxide emissions rise from about 31 billion metric tons in 2010 to 36 billion metric tons in 2020 and then to 45 billion metric tons in 2040, a 46% increase.
Because of the uncertainty of the present world economic conditions it is difficult to project growth rates of the developed
countries,and economic unions and those of the emerging markets.
The report assumes world's real GDP rises by an average of 3.6 % per year from 2010 to 2040. The fastest rates of growth are projected for the emerging economies, where combined GDP increases by 4.7% per year. In the OECD GDP grows at a much slower rate of 2.1% per yeart. The strong growth in non- OECD GDP drives the fast-paced growth in future energy consumption projected for these nations.
In the long term, the IEO2013Reference case projects increased world consumption of marketed energy from all fuel sources through 2040 . Although liquid fuels—mostly petroleum-based—remain the largest source of energy, the liquids share of world marketed energy consumption falls from 34 percent in 2010 to 28 percent in 2040, as projected high world oil prices lead many energy users to switch away from liquid fuels when feasible. The fastest growing sources of world energy in the Reference case are renewables and nuclear power. In the Reference case, the renewables share of total energy use rises from 11 percent in 2010 to 15 percent in 2040, and the nuclear share grows from 5 percent to 7 percent.
use rises from 524 quadrillion British thermal units(Btu) in 2010 to 630 quadrillion Btu in 2020
and to quadrillion Btu in 2040".
Much of the growth in energy consumption occurs in the BRIC economies Brazil,Russia,India and China.
"Energy use in non-OECD countries increases by 90 percent; in OECD countries, the increase is 17 percent".
Renewable energy and nuclear power are the world's fastest-growing energy source.However, fossil fuels continue to supply almost 80 percent of world energy use through 2040. Natural gas is the fastest-growing fossil fuel in the outlook. Global natural gas consumption increases by 1.7 percent per year. Increasing supplies of tight gas, shale gas, and coalbed methane support growth in projected worldwide natural gas use. Coal use grows faster than petroleum and other liquid fuel use until after 2030, mostly because of increases in China's consumption of coal and tepid growth in liquids demand attributed to slow growth in the OECD regions and high sustained oil prices.
The industrial sector continues to account for the largest share of delivered energy consumption; the world industrial sector still consumes over half of global delivered energy in 2040. Given current policies and regulations limiting fossil fuel use, worldwide energy-related carbon dioxide emissions rise from about 31 billion metric tons in 2010 to 36 billion metric tons in 2020 and then to 45 billion metric tons in 2040, a 46% increase.
Because of the uncertainty of the present world economic conditions it is difficult to project growth rates of the developed
countries,and economic unions and those of the emerging markets.
The report assumes world's real GDP rises by an average of 3.6 % per year from 2010 to 2040. The fastest rates of growth are projected for the emerging economies, where combined GDP increases by 4.7% per year. In the OECD GDP grows at a much slower rate of 2.1% per yeart. The strong growth in non- OECD GDP drives the fast-paced growth in future energy consumption projected for these nations.
In the long term, the IEO2013Reference case projects increased world consumption of marketed energy from all fuel sources through 2040 . Although liquid fuels—mostly petroleum-based—remain the largest source of energy, the liquids share of world marketed energy consumption falls from 34 percent in 2010 to 28 percent in 2040, as projected high world oil prices lead many energy users to switch away from liquid fuels when feasible. The fastest growing sources of world energy in the Reference case are renewables and nuclear power. In the Reference case, the renewables share of total energy use rises from 11 percent in 2010 to 15 percent in 2040, and the nuclear share grows from 5 percent to 7 percent.
