Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's long-awaited decision this week on whether to go ahead with the first stage of doubling the sales tax is a major political gamble that proved career-ending for his predecessors, analysts say.
Since sweeping December elections on a ticket to kick-start the world's third-largest economy, the prime minister launched an unprecedented policy blitz - dubbed "Abenomics" - that appears to be taking hold as the economy expands and the stock market roars.
Abe underscored that early success with an upbeat speech to the New York Stock Exchange last week, calling for investors to get on board with his bid to regain Japan's one-time economic glory.
"Japan, as the third-largest economic powerhouse on the planet, will be back in full force again," he promised.
But his decision on hiking the tax levy, seen as crucial to chopping Japan's massive national debt, threatens to sink Abe's growth plans and subsequently his popularity.
Few, however, see the 59-year-old as having much choice, given the size of the national debt, proportionately the worst among the world's richest nations at more than twice the size of the economy.
The International Monetary Fund, among others, has been calling on Tokyo to fix its books, after credit rating agencies lowered their ratings on Japan.
NewsOnJapan
