A chronic shortage of natural gas is hurting China's plan to move away from burning coal to heat homes and offices, raising the prospect of more choking air pollution this winter and beyond.
The problem is worst in northern China, where air pollution mainly caused by decades of reliance on coal has lowered life expectancy by an estimated 5.5 years compared to the south, Chinese and international researchers said in July.
The frigid northeastern city of Harbin, home to 11 million people, virtually ground to a halt last week when airborne contaminants were around 50 times the level recommended by the World Health Organization. Beijing had its own emergency in January when air pollution was 45 times the level.
"I suspect we will have severe incidents of air pollution in Beijing again this winter," said Alvin Lin,China Climate and Energy Policy Director for the U.S.-based Natural Resources Defense Council.
China sees natural gas as the way to cleaner air. Authorities have said Beijing's urban core should use only gas for heating. But domestic output cannot keep up with demand.
The government has said it would raise natural gas use to 230 billion cubic meters by 2015, more than double the 2010 rate, but disappointing domestic production growth coupled with insufficient pipeline and storage capacity has left it increasingly reliant on imports and prone to shortages.
Importers also risk losses because the government keeps the price of gas low to curb inflation and ease the impact on consumers, although recent incremental price hikes have helped.
Despite China's rush to gas, coal still supplies the bulk of the country's total electricity needs.
Under a new plan announced last month to tackle air pollution, China would cut consumption of the fossil fuel to below 65 percent of primary energy use by 2017, down from 66.8 percent last year.
The plan also aims to raise the share of non-fossil fuel energy to 13 percent by 2017, up from 11.4 percent in 2012.
PetroChina Chairman Zhou Jiping said earlier this year it would take at least four to five years to build up new natural gas supply capacity, which would still not be enough to meet demand.
"For the whole country to move to natural gas in the way that you kind of see in the U.S., ... it's going to be a few decades," said Lin of the NRDC.
