We have to look at each emerging market
separately because of the diverging performances. Since 2009 we have
seen great performances in the Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia and
Thailand, where markets went up by three to four times. On the other
hand are markets like India, Brazil or Russia, which are still down in
dollar terms by 50% from their highs. Therefore, each emerging market is
in a different position at the moment.
In my view, there has
been a huge correction in Indonesia and Thailand from the recent highs.
The market is down by around 30-35% from the April-May high, but
following a rebound, we will see further weakness.
Indian stocks,
because of the currency weakness, have already experienced a very
substantial bear market. It may last a little longer, but we surely are
coming into a buying range.
