Friday, 18 October 2013

China's economic growth speeds up? Linda Yueh, Chief business correspondent BBC

"China's economy sped up in the July-to-September quarter to expand at 7.8% year-on-year, according to official gross domestic product (GDP) figures.
That's faster than the previous quarter when GDP grew at 7.5% and the January-to March quarter's 7.7% expansion.
Unless the fourth quarter tanks, it means that the Chinese government will hit its growth target of 7.5% for the year, as the growth rate for the first nine months came in at 7.7%.
There is always a question of the reliability of Chinese figures.
 They are three indicators reportedly espoused by China's premier Li Keqiang as being more reliable? They are gaining prominence as they are being used by banks such as Credit Suisse and JPMorgan as an alternative index for Chinese growth.
The first indicator is electricity usage. The amount of power used by households and firms is a good gauge of consumption and one that is hard to hide. Credit Suisse estimates it's around 9% annualised growth.
The amount of cargo freight is the second measure. Railway cargo volume shows how much has been manufactured and is being moved around the country. But it is an under-measurement of economic activity because it only captures around 40% of GDP - the biggest part of the Chinese economy now is services. Cargo freight volumes are growing at around 21%.
The final gauge is bank loans. How much households and firms borrow over the medium and long-term reflects the amount of demand in the economy for investment.
This is why it's a good indicator of economic activity. But if this is used unproductively to build ghost cities, then it's a different way of over-stating growth. These loans are growing at about 5%".
Source: BBC

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