Seasonal adjustments failed to smooth out big swings in Mortgage Bankers Association's applications data where the refinancing index is up 18 percent in the September 13 week following a 20 percent plunge in the shortened September 6 week. The purchase index is up 3.0 percent in the latest week vs a 3.0 percent dip in the prior week. The report notes that the purchase index is close to where it was before the holiday-related gyrations set in which points to flat results for underlying home sales. Rates have been on the rise but did move lower in the latest week, down 5 basis points to an average 4.75 percent for conforming loans ($417,500 or less).
Housing starts rose in August but only because July was revised down. Housing may be flattening. Housing starts in in August advanced 0.9 percent after rebounding 5.7 percent in July. The August starts annualized level of 0.891 million units fell short of expectations for 0.915 million units and was up 19.0 percent on a year-ago basis. July was revised down to 0.883 million units from the original estimate of 0.896 milllion.
The gain in starts was led by the single-family component which increased 7.0 percent after declining 3.0 percent the prior month. The volatile multifamily component declined 11.1 percent after jumping 28.7 percent in July.
By region, the rise in August starts was seen only in the South (the largest Census region), up l2.0 percent for the month. Declining were the Northeast, down 8.2 percent; Midwest, down 3.3 percent; and West, down 10.9 percent.
Forward momentum is slipping. Permits fell 3.8 percent after a 3.9_ percent rebound in July. August's annualized pace of 0.918 million units was up 11.0 percent on a year-ago basis. Analysts called for 0.950 million units for August permits. Weakness for the latest month was in the multifamily component.
Housing may be slowing although it is a tough call since weakness in August was in the volatile multifamily component. Determining the true trend is going to take more data.
Source: Schwab
Housing starts rose in August but only because July was revised down. Housing may be flattening. Housing starts in in August advanced 0.9 percent after rebounding 5.7 percent in July. The August starts annualized level of 0.891 million units fell short of expectations for 0.915 million units and was up 19.0 percent on a year-ago basis. July was revised down to 0.883 million units from the original estimate of 0.896 milllion.
The gain in starts was led by the single-family component which increased 7.0 percent after declining 3.0 percent the prior month. The volatile multifamily component declined 11.1 percent after jumping 28.7 percent in July.
By region, the rise in August starts was seen only in the South (the largest Census region), up l2.0 percent for the month. Declining were the Northeast, down 8.2 percent; Midwest, down 3.3 percent; and West, down 10.9 percent.
Forward momentum is slipping. Permits fell 3.8 percent after a 3.9_ percent rebound in July. August's annualized pace of 0.918 million units was up 11.0 percent on a year-ago basis. Analysts called for 0.950 million units for August permits. Weakness for the latest month was in the multifamily component.
Housing may be slowing although it is a tough call since weakness in August was in the volatile multifamily component. Determining the true trend is going to take more data.
Source: Schwab
