Monday, 9 December 2013

Innovation and Investment Pop Commodity Price Bubble

   According to a report from the Wall Street Journal,"economists for years warned that rising demand for natural resources by China and other emerging markets would outstrip supply, leaving the world short of everything from nickel to coal, copper and corn".
But a remarkable period of innovation and investment has produced a far different picture. "Expanded supply has helped moderate commodity prices over the past year after a decade of demand from China helped push many prices into the stratosphere.
The International Monetary Fund's index of all commodity prices is down about 12% from recent peaks; it had roughly tripled between 2000 and 2011. Copper is down 28% from its record high in 2011, while thermal coal has fallen by more than half since a 2008 peak".
"Of course, price declines are also driven by weaker demand, especially in China, where economic growth has slowed. And prices for many commodities, including oil, remain far above their average from 10 or 15 years ago.
The most widely known innovation is the oil-field technique known as hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, which fueled the shale boom by injecting water and other materials into the earth to unlock oil and natural gas.
But in agriculture, farmers are tapping new patches of arable land, and turning to higher-yielding hybrid seeds.
In the mining industry, drilling companies are using diamond-coated drill bits to reach miles farther beneath the earth's surface. They also employ aircraft radar to map the geology of remote areas. Firms that mix chemicals into minerals to make desired metals rise to the top or sink to the bottom now extract more product than ever from lower-grade deposits.
On top of all that, many projects that were funded years ago—including new or expanded copper, silver and nickel mines—have started producing.
As as result, mine production has nearly doubled or tripled for every major metal over the past two decades, according to the U.S. Geological Survey and other organizations.
Between 2000 and 2012, aluminum output increased to 45.7 million metric tons from 24.7 million, according to the Raw Materials Group Stockholm, a consultancy. Production of iron ore, used in steelmaking, hit two billion metric tons from just 975 million over the same period".

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