Monday, 9 December 2013

Population trends in Asia and the Pacific Part I

In 2013, the total population of the Asia-Pacific region stood at 4.3
billion, which is 60 per cent of the world’s population. Currently,
there are 1.8 billion in South and South-West Asia, 1.6 billion in
North and North-East Asia, 0.6 billion in South-East Asia, 0.2 billion
in North and Central Asia and 38 million in the Pacific. The region
hosts the two most populous countries in the world: China with 1.4
billion people and India with 1.25 billion people.
Overall population growth in the region is slowing down with
a growth rate of 0.96 per cent per annum. Different speeds
of population growth in the subregions will shift the region’s
composition (figure 1). While in 1980, 42 per cent of the region’s
population was living in East and North-East Asia, by 2050, only
31 per cent of the region’s population will live there. Instead, in
2050 almost half of the region’s population will live in South and
South-West Asia. As the fastest growing subregion, although still
small, the share of the Pacific of the region’s total population is also
growing from 0.8 per cent in 1980 to 1.1 per cent in 2050.
The region as a whole has undergone the demographic transition,
which is the move from high fertility and mortality to low fertility
and mortality. Fertility in the region as a whole is now at 2.1 births
per woman in 2012, which is considered the replacement level.
This demographic transition changed the region’s age structure
significantly. Due to fertility declines, the proportion of the working
population of the whole region is currently at its peak .
However, the proportion of the working-age population is expected
to decline, while the proportion of older persons is increasing.
Different countries in the region are in different stages of the
demographic transition. Some countries moved to aged societies
two decades ago. Other countries, such as the Republic of Korea,
Singapore and Thailand have been able to harness the demographic
dividend in the past, but are now moving to aged societies with
a decreasing working-age population. Other countries, such as
China and Viet Nam, are still in the phase with a large working-age
population, but this window of opportunity may close soon due to
rapid fertility declines. A large number of countries in the region are still
in the phase with an increasing working population. The challenge for
these countries will be to translate this into a demographic dividend
by ensuring an educated and healthy working age population and
creating jobs for people entering the labour force.

Source: United Nations ESCAP

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