Nouri al-Maliki's days in office may be numbered, according to AFP in a look ahead to the opening Iraq's new parliament which is supposed to take place on Tuesday.
Maliki's Sunni and Kurdish rivals are refusing to grant him a third term, while his own bloc - less cohesive than during the previous 2010 election - has been subsumed into a pan-Shiaalliance, thereby lessening his clout."There is a discussion going on" within Maliki's State of Law alliance over whether to replace the premier, said a Western diplomat on condition of anonymity."There are clearly talks going on," the diplomat said, adding: "It is quite a critical few days... This is an important period politically."Maliki staked his reputation as the leader who brought violence under control in 2008 as Iraq emerged from a brutal Sunni-Shiite sectarian war.But a rise in unrest this year, culminating in the sudden advance of jihadist-led Sunni militants who overran swathes of territory, has done significant damage.The formal resurrection of the pan-Shia National Alliance coalition, that includes State of Law and rival groups, further dilutes Maliki's claim to the post, which was based on his party having won nearly three times as many seats in the polls as the next closest contender.The recreation of the NA instead raises the spectre of a prime ministerial candidate emerging from any of the alliance's constituent parties."After the election, his chances were good, but the security breakdown in the country has clearly hurt him," said Hakim al-Zamili, an MP from the Ahrar bloc loyal to powerful Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr."Maliki's chances now are weak under these circumstances - the security problems, problems with the Sunnis, the Sadrists, the Kurds."Under a de facto agreement, the Iraqi premier - by far the most powerful position in the country - is typically a Shia Arab, the parliament speaker is Sunni Arab, and the national president a Kurd.Though no single candidate has emerged as the frontrunner to replace Maliki, several names from within the country's majority Shiite community have been floated.Well-known figures such as former vice president Adel Abdel Mehdi, ex-premier Ibrahim al-Jaafari, and ex-deputy premier Ahmed Chalabi are all being touted alongside backroom power brokers such as Maliki's current chief of staff Tareq Najim.
