Monday 6 January 2014

Insight - Fuelled by Syria war, al Qaeda bursts back to life in Iraq

Al Qaeda gunmen seeking to form a radical Islamic state out of the chaos of Syria's civil war are fighting hard to reconquer the province they once controlled in neighbouring Iraq, stirring fears the conflict is exporting ever more instability.
Exploiting local grievances against Baghdad's rule and buoyed by al Qaeda gains in Syria, the fighters have taken effective control of Anbar's two main cities for the first time since U.S. occupation troops defeated them in 2006-07.
United States has pledged to help Baghdad quell the militant surge in Anbar -- although not with troops -- to stabilise a province that saw the heaviest fighting of the U.S. occupation.
Washington announced it was speeding up deliveries of military equipment to help Baghdad fight the gunmen. This would include missiles, surveillance drones and helicopters.
Al Qaeda's Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) has a tough potential foe in Anbar's well-armed tribes, fellow Sunnis ill-disposed to ceding power to al Qaeda even if they share ISIL's hostility to the Shi'ite-led central government.
And the group's goal of creating a hardline Islamic state reaching into Syria is still seen by many as far-fetched.
But its high-profile push into Ramadi and Falluja illustrates the dangers of conflict spreading from Syria's three-year-old conflict, which is in part a proxy war between Sunni Muslim Saudi Arabia and Shi'ite rival Iran, analysts say.
ISIL fighters operate in Syria as well, and recent setbacks for the group in the war there mean its Iraqi members may be all the more determined to secure gains in Anbar, analysts say.
"There is already a fierce geostrategic struggle unfolding in the Arab arena between Saudi Arabia and Iran. There is a real danger that all-out war in Iraq could pour more gasoline on this raging fire and destabilise fragile Arab countries."
The ISIL fighters are exploiting simmering Sunni anger against the Shi'ite-led government of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki in Baghdad, seen by many Sunnis as a high-handed autocrat beholden to Iran.
They are also making the most of rising sectarian sentiment around the region and a weakening of government control in those Arab countries most affected by the popular uprisings since 2011.
"Al Qaeda in Iraq, Syria and even in Lebanon basically appeals to a certain segment within Sunni public opinion that feels alienated, marginalised or persecuted,"said Fawaz Gerges, a Middle East expert at the London School of Economics.

Source: Reuters

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